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The Role of Income and Substitution in Commodity Demand

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  • Baffes,John
  • Kabundi,Alain Ntumba
  • Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver

Abstract

This paper presents estimates of time-varying income elasticities of demand for energy and metal commodities. The analysis finds that the elasticities are close to unity, evaluated at world median per capita income levels. Furthermore, the estimates confirm that as income rises, demand growth for industrial commodities slows and eventually plateaus. Indeed, estimates for aggregate metals and energy differ by an order of magnitude throughout the income spectrum: from a low of 0.2 for advanced economies to nearly 2 for low-income countries. The analysis, which accounts for substitutability by estimating group aggregates as well as individual commodities with cross-price effects, is based on a panel autoregressive distributed lag model covering 1965-2018, for up to 63 countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Baffes,John & Kabundi,Alain Ntumba & Nagle,Peter Stephen Oliver, 2020. "The Role of Income and Substitution in Commodity Demand," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9122, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9122
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    2. World Bank Group, 2020. "Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33624.
    3. Carol A. Dahl, 2020. "Minerals: What Are They and What Makes Them Critical?," Working Papers 2020-04, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    4. World Bank Group, 2021. "Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2021," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 35458.
    5. Felix Kapfhammer & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020. "Climate Risk and Commodity Currencies," CESifo Working Paper Series 8788, CESifo.
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    7. Krzysztof Dmytrów & Joanna Landmesser & Beata Bieszk-Stolorz, 2021. "The Connections between COVID-19 and the Energy Commodities Prices: Evidence through the Dynamic Time Warping Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-23, July.
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    9. Schischke, A. & Papenfuß, P. & Brem, M. & Kurz, P. & Rathgeber, A.W., 2023. "Sustainable energy transition and its demand for scarce resources: Insights into the German Energiewende through a new risk assessment framework," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
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    11. World Bank, 2020. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33748.
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    13. Bernhard Tröster & Karin Küblböck, 2020. "Unprecedented but not Unpredictable: Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis on Commodity-Dependent Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1430-1449, December.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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