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Interpreting the Oil Risk Premium: do Oil Price Shocks Matter?

Author

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  • Daniele Valenti

    (University of Milan, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods)

  • Matteo Manera

    (FEEM and University of Milan-Bicocca, Department of Economics, Management and Statistics)

  • Alessandro Sbuelz

    (Catholic University of Milan, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Mathematical Finance and Econometrics)

Abstract

This paper provides an analysis of the link between the global market for crude oil and oil futures risk premium at the aggregate level. It offers empirical evidence on whether the compensation for risk required by the speculators depends on the type of the structural shock of interest. Understanding the response of the risk premium to unexpected changes in the price of oil can be useful to address some research questions, among which: what is the relationship between crude oil risk premium and unexpected rise in the price of oil? On average, what should speculators expect to receive as a compensation for the risk they are taking on? This work is based on a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model of the crude oil market. Two main results emerge. First, the impulse response analysis provides evidence of a negative relationship between the risk premium and the changes in the price of oil triggered by shocks to economic fundamentals. Second, this analysis shows that the historical decline of the risk premium can be modelled as a part of endogenous effect of the oil market driven shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniele Valenti & Matteo Manera & Alessandro Sbuelz, 2018. "Interpreting the Oil Risk Premium: do Oil Price Shocks Matter?," Working Papers 2018.03, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2018.03
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    2. Wang, Brian Yutao & Li, Shuo & Liu, Guangqiang & Yang, Zhiqing, 2021. "Running out of energy: The Price effect of energy deficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2021. "Modeling ex-ante risk premia in the oil market," Working Papers hal-03508699, HAL.
    4. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2024. "Expectations and Speculation in the Natural Gas Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 11341, CESifo.
    5. Togonidze, Sophio & Kočenda, Evžen, 2022. "Macroeconomic responses of emerging market economies to oil price shocks: An analysis by region and resource profile," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(3).
    6. Valenti, Daniele & Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo, 2023. "A weekly structural VAR model of the US crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    7. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2024. "Risk premium, price of risk and expected volatility in the oil market: Evidence from survey data," Post-Print hal-04873466, HAL.
    8. Popkova, Elena G. & Sergi, Bruno S., 2024. "Energy infrastructure: Investment, sustainability and AI," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
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    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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