IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v74y2021ics0301420721002944.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A hybrid assessment model for mineral resource availability potentials

Author

Listed:
  • Zhu, Yongguang
  • Xu, Deyi
  • Ali, Saleem H.
  • Cheng, Jinhua

Abstract

Traditional mineral resource availability assessment methods always have strong assumptions and limitations on application. Both the physical mechanism of the Hubbert model and the economic mechanism of the Hotelling model can evaluate only specific dimensions of the availability of mineral resources. Therefore, we propose a hybrid model that could explain mineral resource availability from geological factors to the metal market. In this model, mineral resource availability will be assessed by two indicators in a coordinate system. One is the marginal effect of mining technology, which is calculated by the Cobb-Douglas production function. Another is the price elasticity ratio of reserve and production. Meanwhile, we apply this model to assess 13 kinds of strategic minerals in China. Among them, the availability potential of gold, tin and lead is large in the future, while that of iron, aluminum and copper is relatively small. In addition, zirconium, chromium, lithium, cobalt, tungsten and nickel are technology-based strategic minerals, while molybdenum is a market-oriented strategic mineral. Moreover, we put forward the classified management policy based on empirical results.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Yongguang & Xu, Deyi & Ali, Saleem H. & Cheng, Jinhua, 2021. "A hybrid assessment model for mineral resource availability potentials," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:74:y:2021:i:c:s0301420721002944
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102283
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420721002944
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102283?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reynolds, Douglas B., 1999. "The mineral economy: how prices and costs can falsely signal decreasing scarcity," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 155-166, October.
    2. John Baffes & Alain Kabundi & Peter Nagle, 2022. "The role of income and substitution in commodity demand [Modelling OECD industrial energy demand: asymmetric price responses and energy-saving technical change]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 498-522.
    3. Yaksic, Andrés & Tilton, John E., 2009. "Using the cumulative availability curve to assess the threat of mineral depletion: The case of lithium," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 185-194, December.
    4. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric & Hofkes, Marjan W., 2015. "Modeling peak oil and the geological constraints on oil production," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 36-56.
    5. Rademeyer, Maryke C. & Minnitt, Richard C.A. & Falcon, Rosemary M.S., 2018. "Revisiting operating cost in resource extraction industries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 159-164.
    6. Cynthia Lin, C.-Y. & Wagner, Gernot, 2007. "Steady-state growth in a Hotelling model of resource extraction," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 68-83, July.
    7. Nordhaus, William D, 1974. "Resources as a Constraint on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(2), pages 22-26, May.
    8. Hart, Rob, 2016. "Non-renewable resources in the long run," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-20.
    9. Friedrich -W. Wellmer & Roland W. Scholz, 2017. "Peak minerals: What can we learn from the history of mineral economics and the cases of gold and phosphorus?," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 30(2), pages 73-93, July.
    10. Fally, Thibault & Sayre, James E., 2018. "Commodity Trade Matters," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt9121v3rt, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    11. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Directed Technical Change," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(4), pages 781-809.
    12. Bartos, Paul J., 2007. "Is mining a high-tech industry: Investigations into innovation and productivity advance," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 149-158, December.
    13. Soren T. Anderson & Ryan Kellogg & Stephen W. Salant, 2018. "Hotelling under Pressure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 984-1026.
    14. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 137-137.
    15. Henckens, M.L.C.M. & van Ierland, E.C. & Driessen, P.P.J. & Worrell, E., 2016. "Mineral resources: Geological scarcity, market price trends, and future generations," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 102-111.
    16. Frenzel, Max & Mikolajczak, Claire & Reuter, Markus A. & Gutzmer, Jens, 2017. "Quantifying the relative availability of high-tech by-product metals – The cases of gallium, germanium and indium," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 327-335.
    17. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 2009. "Whither Hotelling: Tests of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 239-259, September.
    18. Slade, Margaret E., 1982. "Trends in natural-resource commodity prices: An analysis of the time domain," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 122-137, June.
    19. Aldakhil, Abdullah Mohammed & Nassani, Abdelmohsen A. & Zaman, Khalid, 2020. "The role of technical cooperation grants in mineral resource extraction: Evidence from a panel of 12 abundant resource economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    20. Sam Mitra, 2019. "Depletion, technology, and productivity growth in the metallic minerals industry," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 32(1), pages 19-37, April.
    21. Di Maria, Corrado & Smulders, Sjak & van der Werf, Edwin, 2012. "Absolute abundance and relative scarcity: Environmental policy with implementation lags," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 104-119.
    22. Calvo, Guiomar & Valero, Alicia & Valero, Antonio, 2017. "Assessing maximum production peak and resource availability of non-fuel mineral resources: Analyzing the influence of extractable global resources," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 208-217.
    23. Carol A. Dahl, 2020. "Dahl Mineral Elasticity of Demand and Supply Database (MEDS)," Working Papers 2020-02, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business, revised Apr 2020.
    24. Geoffrey Heal, 1976. "The Relationship Between Price and Extraction Cost for a Resource with a Backstop Technology," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 371-378, Autumn.
    25. Stollery, Kenneth R., 1983. "Mineral depletion with cost as the extraction limit: A model applied to the behavior of prices in the nickel industry," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 151-165, June.
    26. Gruenhagen, Jan Henrik & Parker, Rachel, 2020. "Factors driving or impeding the diffusion and adoption of innovation in mining: A systematic review of the literature," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    27. Cleveland, Cutler J., 1993. "An exploration of alternative measures of natural resource scarcity: the case of petroleum resources in the U.S," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 123-157, April.
    28. Acemoglu, Daron, 2012. "Introduction to economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 545-550.
    29. Filippou, Dimitrios & King, Michael G., 2011. "R&D prospects in the mining and metals industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 276-284, September.
    30. Wils, Annababette, 2001. "The effects of three categories of technological innovation on the use and price of nonrenewable resources," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 457-472, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Song, Yi & Ruan, Shengzhe & Cheng, Jinhua & Zhang, Yijun, 2023. "Technological change in critical metallic mineral sub-sectors and its impacts on mineral supply: Evidence from China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    2. Zheng, Shuxian & Zhou, Xuanru & Zhao, Pei & Xing, Wanli & Han, Yawen & Hao, Hongchang & Luo, Wenbo, 2022. "Impact of countries’ role on trade prices from a nickel chain perspective: Based on complex network and panel regression analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Song, Huiling & Wang, Chang & Sun, Kun & Geng, Hongjun & Zuo, Lyushui, 2023. "Material efficiency strategies across the industrial chain to secure indium availability for global carbon neutrality," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    4. Han, Sun & Zhenghao, Meng & Meilin, Li & Xiaohui, Yang & Xiaoxue, Wang, 2023. "Global supply sustainability assessment of critical metals for clean energy technology," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    5. Donglin Ren & Liang Liu & Xiujuan Gong & Pan Jiang & Shu Liu & Yirui Yang & Ruifeng Jin, 2022. "Effect Evaluation of Ecological Compensation for Strategic Mineral Resources Exploitation Based on VIKOR-AISM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-18, November.
    6. Zhu, Xiangyan & Geng, Yong & Gao, Ziyan & Tian, Xu & Xiao, Shijiang & Houssini, Khaoula, 2023. "Investigating zirconium flows and stocks in China: A dynamic material flow analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gregor Schwerhoff & Martin Stuermer, 2015. "Non-renewable resources, extraction technology, and endogenous growth," Working Papers 1506, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Stuermer, Martin & Schwerhoff, Gregor, 2013. "Technological change in resource extraction and endogenous growth," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 12/2013, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    3. Casey, Gregory, "undated". "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259959, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Martin Stürmer & Gregor Schwerhoff, 2012. "Non-Renewable but Inexhaustible – Resources in an Endogenous Growth Model," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2012_09, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    5. Roberto Ferreira da Cunha & Antoine Missemer, 2020. "The Hotelling rule in non‐renewable resource economics: A reassessment," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 800-820, May.
    6. Bai, Yiyi & Okullo, Samuel J., 2018. "Understanding oil scarcity through drilling activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 261-269.
    7. Wang, Qiao & Balvers, Ronald, 2021. "Determinants and predictability of commodity producer returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Hart, Rob, 2012. "The economics of natural resources: Understanding and predicting the evolution of supply and demand," Working Paper Series 2012:01, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department Economics.
    9. Hart, Rob & Spiro, Daniel, 2011. "The elephant in Hotelling's room," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7834-7838.
    10. Kamiar Mohaddes, 2013. "Econometric modelling of world oil supplies: terminal price and the time to depletion," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(2), pages 162-193, June.
    11. Sweeney, James L., 1993. "Economic theory of depletable resources: An introduction," Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics, in: A. V. Kneese† & J. L. Sweeney (ed.), Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 17, pages 759-854, Elsevier.
    12. John Boyce, "undated". "Biased Technological Change and the Relative Abundance of Natural Resources," Working Papers 2013-04, Department of Economics, University of Calgary.
    13. Johannes Pfeiffer, 2017. "Fossil Resources and Climate Change – The Green Paradox and Resource Market Power Revisited in General Equilibrium," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 77.
    14. Sam Mitra, 2019. "Depletion, technology, and productivity growth in the metallic minerals industry," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 32(1), pages 19-37, April.
    15. Konrad, Kai A. & Thum, Marcel, 2023. "Elusive effects of export embargoes for fossil energy resources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    16. Nikolaos Kourogenis & Phoebe Koundouri, 2010. "On the Stationarity of Exhaustible Natural Resource Prices," DEOS Working Papers 1022, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    17. Johnson Kakeu, 2023. "Concerns for Long-Run Risks and Natural Resource Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(4), pages 1051-1093, April.
    18. Vicknair, David & Tansey, Michael & O'Brien, Thomas E., 2022. "Measuring fossil fuel reserves: A simulation and review of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Meier, Felix D. & Quaas, Martin F., 2021. "Booming gas – A theory of endogenous technological change in resource extraction," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    20. Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:74:y:2021:i:c:s0301420721002944. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.