The impact of monetary liquidity on Chinese aluminum prices
By expanding Frankel and Rose's (2009) theoretical model to consider the interaction of commodity prices with both money liquidity and expectation formation, this paper empirically studies the long-run relationship and short-term dynamics between aluminum prices and money liquidity via Vector autoregressive (VAR) and Impulse Response Function methodologies. Our results show that: (1) a cointegration relationship between money liquidity and Chinese aluminum prices exists, and monetary liquidity positively significantly influences the price over long periods; (2) a structural change has been found during the 2008 Financial Crisis and the change of Chinese monetary policies; and (3) the negative impact of production capacity mechanism on aluminum prices coexists with the positive impact of financial asset returns mechanism, to allow for varied market expectations on aluminum prices within and outside China.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- anonymous, 2010. "Monetary policy report to the Congress," Web Site 85, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Perron, Pierre, 1997.
"Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- Tom Doan, . "ZIVOT: RATS procedure to perform Zivot-Andrews Unit Root Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00236, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990.
"The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1173-89, December.
- Pindyck, Robert S. & Rotemberg, Julio., 1987. "The excess co-movement of commodity prices," Working papers 1969-87., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Robert S. Pindyck & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1988. "The Excess Co-Movement of Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 2671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- A. Anzuini & M. J. Lombardi & P. Pagano, 2013.
"The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Commodity Prices,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 125-150, September.
- Anzuini, Alessio & Lombardi, Marco J. & Pagano, Patrizio, 2010. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices," Working Paper Series 1232, European Central Bank.
- Alessio Anzuini & Marco J. Lombardi & Patrizio Pagano, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 851, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-52, April.
- Hua, Ping, 1998. "On Primary Commodity Prices: The Impact of Macroeconomic/Monetary Shocks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 767-790, December.
- Newey, W.K. & West, K.D., 1992.
"Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation,"
9220, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
- Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:38:y:2013:i:4:p:512-522. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.