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Causas y consecuencias de la evolución reciente del precio del petróleo


  • Ruiz, Juan


The price of oil has had a marked increase since 2002. The prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude -the two main benhcmarks of the market- have surpassed their historical maximum reached in 1991 during the first Gulf War, though, in real terms, the price of oil is still below that of 1980. This increase in prices, and the risk of further increments, justifies an evaluation of the consequences on global growth and inflation. This article presents a brief review of the recent evolution of the price of oil and tries to identify the main factors behind its increase. In addition, some factors that can influence the future evolution of the price of oil in the short and long run are presented, as well as an estimation of the effect of a further increase in the price of oil over growth and inflation for the main industrial economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruiz, Juan, 2004. "Causas y consecuencias de la evolución reciente del precio del petróleo," MPRA Paper 431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:431

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jerome, 2004. "The euro area viewed as a single economy: how does it respond to shocks?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 833-875, September.
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    3. Benjamin Hunt & Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton, 2002. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Oil Prices," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 179(1), pages 87-103, January.
    4. Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Marcelo Sanchez, 2005. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 201-228.
    5. Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-30.
    6. Thomas Dalsgaard & Christophe André & Pete Richardson, 2001. "Standard Shocks in the OECD Interlink Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 306, OECD Publishing.
    7. Ray Barrell & Olga Pomerantz, 2004. "Oil Prices and the World Economy," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 152-177.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kesicki, Fabian, 2010. "The third oil price surge - What's different this time?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1596-1606, March.

    More about this item


    Oil price; growth; inflation; global economy;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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