IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Speculative bubbles in recent oil price dynamics: Evidence from a Bayesian Markov-switching state-space approach

Listed author(s):
  • Marc Lammerding
  • Patrick Stephan
  • Mark Trede
  • Bernd Wilfling

Motivated by repeated spikes and crashes during previous decades we investigate whether the heavily financialized market for crude oil has been driven by speculative bubbles. In our theoretical modeling we draw on the convenience yield approach in order to approximate the fundamental value of the oil price. We separate the oil price fundamental from the bubble component by expressing a standard present-value oil price model in state-space form. We then introduce two Markov-regimes into the state-space representation in order to distinguish between two distinct phases in the bubble process, namely one in which the oil price bubble is a stable process and one in which the bubble explodes. We estimate the entire Markov-switching state-space specification using an econometrically robust Bayesian Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methodology. Based on inferential techniques designed for statistically separating both Markov-regimes in the bubble process from each other, we find robust evidence for the existence of speculative bubbles in recent oil price dynamics.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://www.wiwi.uni-muenster.de/cqe/sites/cqe/files/CQE_Paper/CQE_WP_23_2012.pdf
File Function: Version of June, 2012
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster in its series CQE Working Papers with number 2312.

as
in new window

Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2012
Handle: RePEc:cqe:wpaper:2312
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Am Stadtgraben 9, 48143 Münster, Germany

Phone: +49.(0).251.83-25041
Fax: +49.(0).251.83-25042
Web page: https://www.wiwi.uni-muenster.de/cqe/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Wu, Yangru, 1995. "Are there rational bubbles in foreign exchange markets? Evidence from an alternative test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 27-46, February.
  2. Petris, Giovanni & Petrone, Sonia, 2011. "State Space Models in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 41(i04).
  3. Kenneth D. West, 1987. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(3), pages 553-580.
  4. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-393, March.
  5. Mohsin S. Khan, 2009. "The 2008 Oil Price "Bubble"," Policy Briefs PB09-19, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  6. Emmanuel Farhi & Ricardo Caballero & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, "undated". "Financial Crash, Commodity Prices and Global Imbalances," Working Paper 20933, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  7. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
  8. Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Rational Bubbles in the Stock Market: Accounting for the U.S. Stock-Price Volatility," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 309-319, April.
  9. Sanders, Dwight R. & Boris, Keith & Manfredo, Mark, 2004. "Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 425-445, May.
  10. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
  11. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 455-491, November.
  12. Param Silvapulle & Imad A. Moosa, 1999. "The relationship between spot and futures prices: Evidence from the crude oil market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 175-193, 04.
  13. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Dees, Stephane & Gasteuil, Audrey & Mann, Michael, 2008. "Oil prices: The role of refinery utilization, futures markets and non-linearities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2609-2622, September.
  14. Lombardi, Marco J. & Van Robays, Ine, 2011. "Do financial investors destabilize the oil price?," Working Paper Series 1346, European Central Bank.
  15. Tokic, Damir, 2011. "Rational destabilizing speculation, positive feedback trading, and the oil bubble of 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2051-2061, April.
  16. Al-Anaswah, Nael & Wilfling, Bernd, 2011. "Identification of speculative bubbles using state-space models with Markov-switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1073-1086, May.
  17. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Diks, Cees G.H., 2008. "The relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices: Cointegration, linear and nonlinear causality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2673-2685, September.
  18. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2010. "Oil price dynamics and speculation: A multivariate financial approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 363-372, March.
  19. Miller, J. Isaac & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009. "Crude oil and stock markets: Stability, instability, and bubbles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 559-568, July.
  20. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
  21. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
  22. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "Financial Crash, Commody Prices, and Global Inbalances," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 1-68.
  23. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2010. "Oil price dynamics and speculation: A multivariate financial approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 363-372, March.
  24. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "Speculative Influences On Commodity Futures Prices 2006-2008," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 197, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  25. Stanislaw Drozdz & Jaroslaw Kwapien & Pawel Oswiecimka, 2008. "Criticality Characteristics of Current Oil Price Dynamics," Papers 0808.3360, arXiv.org.
  26. Lutz Kilian & Bruce Hicks, 2013. "Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 385-394, 08.
  27. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, 04.
  28. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
  29. Tokic, Damir, 2010. "The 2008 oil bubble: Causes and consequences," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6009-6015, October.
  30. Pindyck, Robert S, 1993. "The Present Value Model of Rational Commodity Pricing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(418), pages 511-530, May.
  31. Stefan Reitz & Ulf Slopek, 2009. "Non-Linear Oil Price Dynamics: A Tale of Heterogeneous Speculators?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10, pages 270-283, 08.
  32. Riza Emekter & Benjamas Jirasakuldech & Peter Went, 2012. "Rational speculative bubbles and commodities markets: application of duration dependence test," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(7), pages 581-596, April.
  33. Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2009. "The 2006–2008 oil bubble: Evidence of speculation, and prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1571-1576.
  34. Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg, 2009. "Are oil-price-forecasters finally right? -- Regressive expectations towards more fundamental values of the oil price," MPRA Paper 15607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Thomas V. Schwarz & Andrew C. Szakmary, 1994. "Price discovery in petroleum markets: Arbitrage, cointegration, and the time interval of analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 147-167, 04.
  36. Kesicki, Fabian, 2010. "The third oil price surge - What's different this time?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1596-1606, March.
  37. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Ullman, Ben, 2009. "Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals: Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 550-558, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cqe:wpaper:2312. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Susanne Deckwitz)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.