The oil price crash in 2014/15: Was there a (negative) financial bubble?
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.06.020
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.
Other versions of this item:
- Fantazzini, Dean, 2016. "The Oil Price Crash in 2014/15: Was There a (Negative) Financial Bubble?," MPRA Paper 72094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
References listed on IDEAS
- Mathieu Gomes & Anissa Chaibi, 2014. "Volatility Spillovers Between Oil Prices And Stock Returns: A Focus On Frontier Markets," Post-Print hal-02314397, HAL.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012.
"Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
- Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2010. "Better to Give than to Receive: Predictive Directional Measurement of Volatility Spillovers," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1001, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, revised Mar 2010.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2014.
"Specification Sensitivity in Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing for Explosive Behaviour,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(3), pages 315-333, June.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2011. "Specification Sensitivity in Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing for Explosive Behavior," Working Papers 15-2011, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2012. "Specification Sensitivity in Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing for Explosive Behavior," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1842, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2012. "Specification Sensitivity in Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing for Explosive Behavior," Working Papers 17-2012, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
- D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Papers cond-mat/0106520, arXiv.org.
- John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015.
"The great plunge in oil prices: causes, consequences, and policy responses,"
CAMA Working Papers
2015-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1504, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Policy Research Notes (PRNs) 94725, The World Bank.
- Laura L. Veldkamp, 2006.
"Media Frenzies in Markets for Financial Information,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 577-601, June.
- Laura Veldkamp, 2003. "Media Frenzies in Markets for Financial Information," Working Papers 03-20, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Laura Veldkamp, 2004. "Media Frenzies in Markets for Financial Information," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 4, Econometric Society.
- Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2010.
"Modelling and measuring price discovery in commodity markets,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 95-107, September.
- Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel, 2007. "Modelling and measuring price discovery in commodity markets," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb074510, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EconomÃa de la Empresa.
- Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel, 2008. "Modelling and Measuring Price Discovery in Commodity Markets," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 15951, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EconomÃa de la Empresa.
- Sornette, Didier & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2006.
"Predictability of large future changes in major financial indices,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 153-168.
- D. Sornette & W. -X. Zhou, 2003. "Predictability of large future changes in major financial indices," Papers cond-mat/0304601, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2004.
- Awartani, Basel & Maghyereh, Aktham Issa, 2013. "Dynamic spillovers between oil and stock markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 28-42.
- Vladimir Filimonov & Didier Sornette, 2011. "A Stable and Robust Calibration Scheme of the Log-Periodic Power Law Model," Papers 1108.0099, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2013.
- Creti, Anna & Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie, 2013.
"On the links between stock and commodity markets' volatility,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 16-28.
- Anna Creti & Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon, 2012. "On the links between stock and commodity markets' volatility," Working Papers hal-04141042, HAL.
- Anna Creti & Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "On the links between stock and commodity markets’ volatility," Post-Print hal-01385868, HAL.
- Anna Creti & Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon, 2012. "On the links between stock and commodity markets' volatility," Working Papers 2012-20, CEPII research center.
- Anna Creti & Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon, 2012. "On the links between stock and commodity markets' volatility," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-42, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011.
"Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis,"
Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 455-491, November.
- Peter C.B.Phillips & Jun Yu, 2009. "Dating the Timeline of Financial Bubbles During the Subprime Crisis," Working Papers CoFie-07-2009, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2009. "Dating the Timeline of Financial Bubbles During the Subprime Crisis," Working Papers 18-2009, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2009. "Dating the Timeline of Financial Bubbles During the Subprime Crisis," Finance Working Papers 23051, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2010. "Dating the Timeline of Financial Bubbles during the Subprime Crisis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1770, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Shi, Shuping & Arora, Vipin, 2012. "An application of models of speculative behaviour to oil prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 469-472.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011.
"EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2007. "Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?," Working Papers 222007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Peter C.B. PHILIPS & Yangru WU & Jun YU, 2009. "Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?," Working Papers 19-2009, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
- Peter C.B.Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2009. "Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?," Working Papers CoFie-03-2008, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
- Peter C.B. Philips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2009. "Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq : When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?," Finance Working Papers 23050, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2009. "Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1699, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Areal, Francisco José & Balcombe, Kevin & Rapsomanikis, George, 2016.
"Testing for bubbles in agriculture commodity markets,"
Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(01), June.
- Areal, Francisco J & Balcombe, Kelvin & Rapsomanikis, George, 2013. "Testing for bubbles in agriculture commodity markets," MPRA Paper 48015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Areal, Francisco J. & Balcombe, Kelvin G. & Rapsomanikis, George, 2014. "Testing for bubbles in agricultural commodity markets," ESA Working Papers 288981, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
- Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Sollis, Robert & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2016. "Tests for explosive financial bubbles in the presence of non-stationary volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 548-574.
- Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Bastiaensen, Ken & Cauwels, Peter, 2010.
"Bubble diagnosis and prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 149-162, June.
- Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou & D. Sornette & Ryan Woodard & Ken Bastiaensen & Peter Cauwels, "undated". "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Working Papers CCSS-09-008, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
- Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette & Ryan Woodard & Ken Bastiaensen & Peter Cauwels, 2009. "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Papers 0909.1007, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2009.
- Zhi-Qiang JIANG & Wei-Xing ZHOU & Didier SORNETTE & Ryan WOODARD & Ken BASTIAENSEN & Peter CAUWELS, 2009. "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 09-39, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Hedi Arouri, Mohamed El & Khuong Nguyen, Duc, 2010.
"Oil prices, stock markets and portfolio investment: Evidence from sector analysis in Europe over the last decade,"
Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4528-4539, August.
- Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2010. "Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over the Last Decade," Working Papers hal-00507823, HAL.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Lombardi, Marco J. & Van Robays, Ine, 2011.
"Do financial investors destabilize the oil price?,"
Working Paper Series
1346, European Central Bank.
- M. J. Lombardi & I. Van Robays, 2011. "Do Financial Investors Destabilize the Oil Price?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/760, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 452-471.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/14980 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hans R. Dutt & Lawrence E. Harris, 2005. "Position limits for cash‐settled derivative contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(10), pages 945-965, October.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2008.
"Analysis of the real estate market in Las Vegas: Bubble, seasonal patterns, and prediction of the CSW indices,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(1), pages 243-260.
- Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2007. "Analysis of the real estate market in Las Vegas: Bubble, seasonal patterns, and prediction of the CSW indexes," Papers 0704.0589, arXiv.org.
- Neil Kellard & Denise Osborn & Jerry Coakley & Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti & Christopher L. Gilbert & J. Roderick McCrorie, 2015. "Testing for Mild Explosivity and Bubbles in LME Non-Ferrous Metals Prices," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 763-782, September.
- Tokic, Damir, 2015. "The 2014 oil bust: Causes and consequences," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 162-169.
- Anders Johansen & Olivier Ledoit & Didier Sornette, 2000.
"Crashes As Critical Points,"
International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 219-255.
- Johansen, Anders & Ledoit, Olivier & Sornette, Didier, 1998. "Crashes at Critical Points," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt2s77r0rk, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Yan, Wanfeng & Woodard, Ryan & Sornette, Didier, 2012. "Diagnosis and prediction of rebounds in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1361-1380.
- Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002.
"Do We Really Know That Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative,"
NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Working Papers 8389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016.
"Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014,"
Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 131-158.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2015. "Understanding the decline in the price of oil since June 2014," CFS Working Paper Series 501, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014," CESifo Working Paper Series 5755, CESifo.
- Kilian, Lutz & Baumeister, Christiane, 2015. "Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014," CEPR Discussion Papers 10404, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Yiu, Matthew S. & Yu, Jun & Jin, Lu, 2013.
"Detecting bubbles in Hong Kong residential property market,"
Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 115-124.
- Matthew S. Yiu & Jun Yu & Lu Jin, 2012. "Detecting Bubbles in Hong Kong Residential Property Market," Working Papers CoFie-03-2012, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
- Matthew S. Yiu & Jun Yu & Lu Jin, 2012. "Detecting Bubbles in Hong Kong Residential Property Market," Working Papers 31-2012, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
- Lammerding, Marc & Stephan, Patrick & Trede, Mark & Wilfling, Bernd, 2013.
"Speculative bubbles in recent oil price dynamics: Evidence from a Bayesian Markov-switching state-space approach,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 491-502.
- Marc Lammerding & Patrick Stephan & Mark Trede & Bernd Wilfling, 2012. "Speculative bubbles in recent oil price dynamics: Evidence from a Bayesian Markov-switching state-space approach," CQE Working Papers 2312, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
- Dietrich Domanski & Jonathan Kearns & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Oil and debt," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
- James D. Hamilton, 2011. "Historical Oil Shocks," NBER Working Papers 16790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011.
"Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries,"
International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
- Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," MPRA Paper 96299, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lutz Kilian, 2008.
"The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- James D. Hamilton, 2009.
"Understanding Crude Oil Prices,"
The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
- James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," NBER Working Papers 14492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Caspi, Itamar & Katzke, Nico & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Date stamping historical periods of oil price explosivity: 1876–2014," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 582-587.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2009.
"A case study of speculative financial bubbles in the South African stock market 2003–2006,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(6), pages 869-880.
- Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2007. "A case study of speculative financial bubbles in the South African stock market 2003-2006," Papers physics/0701171, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2008.
- Lin, L. & Ren, R.E. & Sornette, D., 2014. "The volatility-confined LPPL model: A consistent model of ‘explosive’ financial bubbles with mean-reverting residuals," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 210-225.
- Vladimir Filimonov & Didier Sornette, "undated". "A Stable and Robust Calibration Scheme of the Log-Periodic Power Law Model," Working Papers ETH-RC-11-002, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
- Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette, 1999. "Critical Crashes," Papers cond-mat/9901035, arXiv.org.
- Filimonov, V. & Sornette, D., 2013. "A stable and robust calibration scheme of the log-periodic power law model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3698-3707.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
- Petr Geraskin & Dean Fantazzini, 2013.
"Everything you always wanted to know about log-periodic power laws for bubble modeling but were afraid to ask,"
The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 366-391, May.
- Fantazzini, Dean & Geraskin, Petr, 2011. "Everything You Always Wanted to Know about Log Periodic Power Laws for Bubble Modelling but Were Afraid to Ask," MPRA Paper 47869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Johansen, Anders, 2003. "Characterization of large price variations in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 157-166.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2003.
"2000–2003 real estate bubble in the UK but not in the USA,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 329(1), pages 249-263.
- W. -X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2003. "2000-2003 Real Estate Bubble in the UK but not in the USA," Papers physics/0303028, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2003.
- Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014.
"The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
- Kilian, Lutz & Murphy, Daniel, 2010. "The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 7753, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kumar, Surender & Managi, Shunsuke & Matsuda, Akimi, 2012. "Stock prices of clean energy firms, oil and carbon markets: A vector autoregressive analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 215-226.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2006.
"Is there a real-estate bubble in the US?,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 361(1), pages 297-308.
- Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2005. "Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?," Papers physics/0506027, arXiv.org.
- Tokic, Damir, 2010. "The 2008 oil bubble: Causes and consequences," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6009-6015, October.
- Pindyck, Robert S, 1993.
"The Present Value Model of Rational Commodity Pricing,"
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(418), pages 511-530, May.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1991. "The present value model of rational commodity pricing," Working papers 3354-91., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1992. "The Present Value Model of Rational Commodity Pricing," NBER Working Papers 4083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2011.
"Specification Sensitivity in Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing for Explosive Behavior,"
Working Papers
15-2011, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2012. "Specification Sensitivity in Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing for Explosive Behavior," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1842, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2012. "Specification Sensitivity in Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing for Explosive Behavior," Working Papers 17-2012, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2011. "Speci cation Sensitivity in Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing for Explosive Behavior," Working Papers CoFie-09-2011, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi, 2014. "Financial Bubble Implosion," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1967, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Anissa Chaibi & Mathieu Gomes, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers Between Oil Prices and Stock Returns: A Focus on Frontier Markets," Working Papers 2013-34, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
- Graf v. Bothmer, Hans-Christian & Meister, Christian, 2003. "Predicting critical crashes? A new restriction for the free variables," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 539-547.
- Khalfaoui, R. & Boutahar, M. & Boubaker, H., 2015. "Analyzing volatility spillovers and hedging between oil and stock markets: Evidence from wavelet analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 540-549.
- Bhattacharya, Utpal & Galpin, Neal & Ray, Rina & Yu, Xiaoyun, 2009. "The Role of the Media in the Internet IPO Bubble," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 657-682, June.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Fantazzini, Dean & Nigmatullin, Erik & Sukhanovskaya, Vera & Ivliev, Sergey, 2016.
"Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask. I,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 44, pages 5-24.
- Fantazzini, Dean & Nigmatullin, Erik & Sukhanovskaya, Vera & Ivliev, Sergey, 2016. "Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask," MPRA Paper 71946, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
- Fantazzini, Dean & Nigmatullin, Erik & Sukhanovskaya, Vera & Ivliev, Sergey, 2017. "Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask. Part 2," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 45, pages 5-28.
- Cheng, Fangzheng & Fan, Tijun & Fan, Dandan & Li, Shanling, 2018. "The prediction of oil price turning points with log-periodic power law and multi-population genetic algorithm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 341-355.
- Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Yan, Wanfeng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2013. "Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4417-4428.
- Shu, Min & Zhu, Wei, 2020. "Detection of Chinese stock market bubbles with LPPLS confidence indicator," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 557(C).
- Zhang, Qunzhi & Sornette, Didier & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2016.
"LPPLS bubble indicators over two centuries of the S&P 500 index,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 126-139.
- Qunzhi Zhang & Didier Sornette & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Zeynel A. Ozdemir & Hakan Yetkiner, 2016. "LPPLS Bubble Indicators over Two Centuries of the S&P 500 Index," Working Papers 201606, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & McCrorie, J. Roderick & Paraskevopoulos, Ioannis, 2020. "Mild explosivity in recent crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
- Song, Ruiqiang & Shu, Min & Zhu, Wei, 2022. "The 2020 global stock market crash: Endogenous or exogenous?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 585(C).
- Kristoffer Pons Bertelsen, 2019. "Comparing Tests for Identification of Bubbles," CREATES Research Papers 2019-16, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Hanwool Jang & Yena Song & Sungbin Sohn & Kwangwon Ahn, 2018. "Real Estate Soars and Financial Crises: Recent Stories," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-12, December.
- Wosnitza, Jan Henrik & Denz, Cornelia, 2013. "Liquidity crisis detection: An application of log-periodic power law structures to default prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3666-3681.
- Shu, Min & Song, Ruiqiang & Zhu, Wei, 2021. "The ‘COVID’ crash of the 2020 U.S. Stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
- Filimonov, V. & Sornette, D., 2013. "A stable and robust calibration scheme of the log-periodic power law model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3698-3707.
- Petr Geraskin & Dean Fantazzini, 2013.
"Everything you always wanted to know about log-periodic power laws for bubble modeling but were afraid to ask,"
The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 366-391, May.
- Fantazzini, Dean & Geraskin, Petr, 2011. "Everything You Always Wanted to Know about Log Periodic Power Laws for Bubble Modelling but Were Afraid to Ask," MPRA Paper 47869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lin, L. & Ren, R.E. & Sornette, D., 2014. "The volatility-confined LPPL model: A consistent model of ‘explosive’ financial bubbles with mean-reverting residuals," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 210-225.
- Caspi, Itamar & Katzke, Nico & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Date stamping historical periods of oil price explosivity: 1876–2014," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 582-587.
- Min Shu & Ruiqiang Song & Wei Zhu, 2021. "The 'COVID' Crash of the 2020 U.S. Stock Market," Papers 2101.03625, arXiv.org.
- Ruiqiang Song & Min Shu & Wei Zhu, 2021. "The 2020 Global Stock Market Crash: Endogenous or Exogenous?," Papers 2101.00327, arXiv.org.
- Wosnitza, Jan Henrik & Leker, Jens, 2014. "Can log-periodic power law structures arise from random fluctuations?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 228-250.
- V. Filimonov & G. Demos & D. Sornette, 2017.
"Modified profile likelihood inference and interval forecast of the burst of financial bubbles,"
Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 1167-1186, August.
- Vladimir Filimonov & Guilherme Demos & Didier Sornette, 2016. "Modified Profile Likelihood Inference and Interval Forecast of the Burst of Financial Bubbles," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-12, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Vladimir Filimonov & Guilherme Demos & Didier Sornette, 2016. "Modified Profile Likelihood Inference and Interval Forecast of the Burst of Financial Bubbles," Papers 1602.08258, arXiv.org.
More about this item
Keywords
Oil; Wti; Brent; Generalized sup ADF test; LPPL; Bubble;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
- O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
- Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:96:y:2016:i:c:p:383-396. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.