Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2013.05.011
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008.
"Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock,"
Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, February.
- Refet Gurkaynak, 2005. "Econometric Tests of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Finance 0504008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2005. "Econometric tests of asset price bubbles: taking stock," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Yan, Wanfeng & Woodard, Ryan & Sornette, Didier, 2012.
"Leverage bubble,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(1), pages 180-186.
- Wanfeng Yan & Ryan Woodard & Didier Sornette, 2010. "Leverage Bubble," Papers 1011.0458, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2010.
- Clark, Andrew, 2004. "Evidence of log-periodicity in corporate bond spreads," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 338(3), pages 585-595.
- Stanislaw Drozdz & Jaroslaw Kwapien & Pawel Oswiecimka & Josef Speth, 2008. "Current log-periodic view on future world market development," Papers 0802.4043, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2008.
- L. Gazola & C. Fernandes & A. Pizzinga & R. Riera, 2008. "The log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model for financial crashes," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 61(3), pages 355-362, February.
- Didier Sornette & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2002.
"The US 2000-2002 market descent: How much longer and deeper?,"
Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(6), pages 468-481.
- D. Sornette & W. -X. Zhou, 2002. "The US 2000-2002 Market Descent: How Much Longer and Deeper?," Papers cond-mat/0209065, arXiv.org.
- D. Sornette, 2003. "Critical Market Crashes," Papers cond-mat/0301543, arXiv.org.
- Sunil Mithas & M. S. Krishnan, 2008. "Human Capital and Institutional Effects in the Compensation of Information Technology Professionals in the United States," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(3), pages 415-428, March.
- D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 452-471.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2008.
"Analysis of the real estate market in Las Vegas: Bubble, seasonal patterns, and prediction of the CSW indices,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(1), pages 243-260.
- Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2007. "Analysis of the real estate market in Las Vegas: Bubble, seasonal patterns, and prediction of the CSW indexes," Papers 0704.0589, arXiv.org.
- Lux, Thomas & Sornette, Didier, 2002.
"On Rational Bubbles and Fat Tails,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 589-610, August.
- Thomas Lux & D. Sornette, 1999. "On Rational Bubbles and Fat Tails," Papers cond-mat/9910141, arXiv.org.
- Vladimir Filimonov & Didier Sornette, "undated". "A Stable and Robust Calibration Scheme of the Log-Periodic Power Law Model," Working Papers ETH-RC-11-002, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
- Petr Geraskin & Dean Fantazzini, 2013.
"Everything you always wanted to know about log-periodic power laws for bubble modeling but were afraid to ask,"
The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 366-391, May.
- Fantazzini, Dean & Geraskin, Petr, 2011. "Everything You Always Wanted to Know about Log Periodic Power Laws for Bubble Modelling but Were Afraid to Ask," MPRA Paper 47869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2003.
"2000–2003 real estate bubble in the UK but not in the USA,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 329(1), pages 249-263.
- W. -X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2003. "2000-2003 Real Estate Bubble in the UK but not in the USA," Papers physics/0303028, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2003.
- Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette, 2000. "Evaluation Of The Quantitative Prediction Of A Trend Reversal On The Japanese Stock Market In 1999," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 359-364.
- Graf v. Bothmer, Hans-Christian & Meister, Christian, 2003. "Predicting critical crashes? A new restriction for the free variables," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 539-547.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2009.
"A case study of speculative financial bubbles in the South African stock market 2003–2006,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(6), pages 869-880.
- Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2007. "A case study of speculative financial bubbles in the South African stock market 2003-2006," Papers physics/0701171, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2008.
- Wanfeng Yan & Reda Rebib & Ryan Woodard & Didier Sornette, "undated".
"Detection of Crashes and Rebounds in Major Equity Markets,"
Working Papers
ETH-RC-11-001, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
- Wanfeng Yan & Reda Rebib & Ryan Woodard & Didier Sornette, 2011. "Detection of Crashes and Rebounds in Major Equity Markets," Papers 1108.0077, arXiv.org.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2005. "Testing the stability of the 2000 US stock market “antibubble”," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 348(C), pages 428-452.
- Ide, Kayo & Sornette, Didier, 2002. "Oscillatory finite-time singularities in finance, population and rupture," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 307(1), pages 63-106.
- Sornette, Didier & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2006.
"Predictability of large future changes in major financial indices,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 153-168.
- D. Sornette & W. -X. Zhou, 2003. "Predictability of large future changes in major financial indices," Papers cond-mat/0304601, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2004.
- J.M. Fry, 2012. "Exogenous and endogenous market crashes as phase transitions in complex financial systems," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 85(12), pages 1-6, December.
- De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990.
"Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," NBER Working Papers 2880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Scholarly Articles 27693805, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Sornette, Didier & Johansen, Anders, 1997. "Large financial crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 411-422.
- J.A. Feigenbaum, 2001. "A statistical analysis of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes-super-," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 346-360, March.
- Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette, 1999. "Critical Crashes," Papers cond-mat/9901035, arXiv.org.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2003.
"Evidence of a worldwide stock market log-periodic anti-bubble since mid-2000,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 330(3), pages 543-583.
- W. -X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2002. "Evidence of a Worldwide Stock Market Log-Periodic Anti-Bubble Since Mid-2000," Papers cond-mat/0212010, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2003.
- L. Gazola & C. Fernandes & A. Pizzinga & R. Riera, 2008. "The log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model for financial crashes," Papers 0801.4341, arXiv.org.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2004.
"Antibubble and prediction of China's stock market and real-estate,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(1), pages 243-268.
- W. -X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2003. "Antibubble and Prediction of China's stock market and Real-Estate," Papers cond-mat/0312149, arXiv.org.
- Duan Wang & Boris Podobnik & Davor Horvati'c & H. Eugene Stanley, 2011. "Quantifying and Modeling Long-Range Cross-Correlations in Multiple Time Series with Applications to World Stock Indices," Papers 1102.2240, arXiv.org.
- Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Bastiaensen, Ken & Cauwels, Peter, 2010.
"Bubble diagnosis and prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 149-162, June.
- Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou & D. Sornette & Ryan Woodard & Ken Bastiaensen & Peter Cauwels, "undated". "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Working Papers CCSS-09-008, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
- Zhi-Qiang JIANG & Wei-Xing ZHOU & Didier SORNETTE & Ryan WOODARD & Ken BASTIAENSEN & Peter CAUWELS, 2009. "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 09-39, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette & Ryan Woodard & Ken Bastiaensen & Peter Cauwels, 2009. "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Papers 0909.1007, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2009.
- D. Sornette & R. Woodard, "undated". "Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis," Working Papers CCSS-09-003, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
- A. Johansen & D. Sornette, 1999. "Financial ``Anti-Bubbles'': Log-Periodicity in Gold and Nikkei collapses," Papers cond-mat/9901268, arXiv.org.
- Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette, 2001. "Bubbles And Anti-Bubbles In Latin-American, Asian And Western Stock Markets: An Empirical Study," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(06), pages 853-920.
- Sornette, Didier & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2004.
"Evidence of fueling of the 2000 new economy bubble by foreign capital inflow: implications for the future of the US economy and its stock market,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 332(C), pages 412-440.
- D. Sornette & W. -X. Zhou, 2003. "Evidence of Fueling of the 2000 New Economy Bubble by Foreign Capital Inflow: Implications for the Future of the US Economy and its Stock Market," Papers cond-mat/0306496, arXiv.org.
- D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Papers cond-mat/0106520, arXiv.org.
- Matsushita, Raul & da Silva, Sergio & Figueiredo, Annibal & Gleria, Iram, 2006.
"Log-periodic crashes revisited,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 364(C), pages 331-335.
- Raul Matsushita & Iram Gleria & Annibal Figueiredo & Sergio Da Silva, 2005. "Log-Periodic Crashes Revisited," Finance 0508005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- L. Lin & D. Sornette, 2013. "Diagnostics of rational expectation financial bubbles with stochastic mean-reverting termination times," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 344-365, May.
- Andersen, J.V. & Sornette, D., 2004. "Fearless versus fearful speculative financial bubbles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(3), pages 565-585.
- Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette, 2010. "Shocks, Crashes and Bubbles in Financial Markets," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 53(2), pages 201-253.
- Anders Johansen & Olivier Ledoit & Didier Sornette, 2000.
"Crashes As Critical Points,"
International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 219-255.
- Johansen, Anders & Ledoit, Olivier & Sornette, Didier, 1998. "Crashes at Critical Points," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt2s77r0rk, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Wanfeng Yan & Ryan Woodard & Didier Sornette, 2010. "Diagnosis and Prediction of Tipping Points in Financial Markets: Crashes and Rebounds," Papers 1001.0265, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2010.
- W. -X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2003. "Renormalization Group Analysis of the 2000-2002 anti-bubble in the US S&P 500 index: Explanation of the hierarchy of 5 crashes and Prediction," Papers physics/0301023, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2003.
- Filimonov, V. & Sornette, D., 2013. "A stable and robust calibration scheme of the log-periodic power law model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3698-3707.
- Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2002. "Statistical Significance Of Periodicity And Log-Periodicity With Heavy-Tailed Correlated Noise," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 137-169.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2006.
"Is there a real-estate bubble in the US?,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 361(1), pages 297-308.
- Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2005. "Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?," Papers physics/0506027, arXiv.org.
- George Chang & James Feigenbaum, 2008. "Detecting log-periodicity in a regime-switching model of stock returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(7), pages 723-738.
- Gnaciński, Piotr & Makowiec, Danuta, 2004. "Another type of log-periodic oscillations on Polish stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 322-325.
- Vladimir Filimonov & Didier Sornette, 2011. "A Stable and Robust Calibration Scheme of the Log-Periodic Power Law Model," Papers 1108.0099, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2013.
- Linda Allen & Suparna Chakraborty & Wako Watanabe, 2011. "Foreign direct investment and regulatory remedies for banking crises: Lessons from Japan," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 42(7), pages 875-893, September.
- Gisler, Monika & Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan, 2011. "Innovation as a social bubble: The example of the Human Genome Project," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 1412-1425.
- Fry, John, 2012. "Exogenous and endogenous crashes as phase transitions in complex financial systems," MPRA Paper 36202, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2003. "Renormalization group analysis of the 2000–2002 anti-bubble in the US S&P500 index: explanation of the hierarchy of five crashes and prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 330(3), pages 584-604.
- Yan, Wanfeng & Woodard, Ryan & Sornette, Didier, 2012. "Diagnosis and prediction of rebounds in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1361-1380.
- Fry, J. M., 2010. "Bubbles and crashes in finance: A phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices," MPRA Paper 24778, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Yannick Malevergne & Didier Sornette, 2006. "Extreme Financial Risks : From Dependence to Risk Management," Post-Print hal-02298069, HAL.
- Johansen, Anders & Sornette, Didier, 2001. "Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 465-502.
- Fischer Black, 1988. "An Equilibrium Model of the Crash," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 269-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355.
- M. Bartolozzi & S. Drozdz & D. B. Leinweber & J. Speth & A. W. Thomas, 2005. "Self-Similar Log-Periodic Structures in Western Stock Markets from 2000," Papers cond-mat/0501513, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2005.
- David S. Br�e & Damien Challet & Pier Paolo Peirano, 2013.
"Prediction accuracy and sloppiness of log-periodic functions,"
Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 275-280, January.
- David Br'ee & Damien Challet & Pier Paolo Peirano, 2010. "Prediction accuracy and sloppiness of log-periodic functions," Papers 1006.2010, arXiv.org.
- Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2009. "The 2006–2008 oil bubble: Evidence of speculation, and prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1571-1576.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Jennifer Jhun & Patricia Palacios & James Owen Weatherall, 2017. "Market Crashes as Critical Phenomena? Explanation, Idealization, and Universality in Econophysics," Papers 1704.02392, arXiv.org.
- Kaizoji, Taisei & Leiss, Matthias & Saichev, Alexander & Sornette, Didier, 2015.
"Super-exponential endogenous bubbles in an equilibrium model of fundamentalist and chartist traders,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 289-310.
- Taisei KAIZOJI & Matthias LEISS & Alexander I. SAICHEV & Didier SORNETTE, 2015. "Super-Exponential Endogenous Bubbles in an Equilibrium Model of Fundamentalist and Chartist Traders," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-07, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Leiss, Matthias & Nax, Heinrich H. & Sornette, Didier, 2015. "Super-exponential growth expectations and the global financial crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-13.
- Zhang, Yue-Jun & Yao, Ting, 2016. "Interpreting the movement of oil prices: Driven by fundamentals or bubbles?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 226-240.
- Kristoffer Pons Bertelsen, 2019. "Comparing Tests for Identification of Bubbles," CREATES Research Papers 2019-16, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Papastamatiou, Konstantinos & Karakasidis, Theodoros, 2022. "Bubble detection in Greek Stock Market: A DS-LPPLS model approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 587(C).
- Marco Bianchetti & Davide Galli & Camilla Ricci & Angelo Salvatori & Marco Scaringi, 2016. "Brexit or Bremain ? Evidence from bubble analysis," Papers 1606.06829, arXiv.org.
- Spencer Wheatley & Didier Sornette & Tobias Huber & Max Reppen & Robert N. Gantner, 2018. "Are Bitcoin Bubbles Predictable? Combining a Generalized Metcalfe's Law and the LPPLS Model," Papers 1803.05663, arXiv.org.
- Shu, Min & Zhu, Wei, 2020. "Detection of Chinese stock market bubbles with LPPLS confidence indicator," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 557(C).
- Jerome L Kreuser & Didier Sornette, 2017. "Super-Exponential RE Bubble Model with Efficient Crashes," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-33, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Cheng, Fangzheng & Fan, Tijun & Fan, Dandan & Li, Shanling, 2018. "The prediction of oil price turning points with log-periodic power law and multi-population genetic algorithm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 341-355.
- Min Shu & Ruiqiang Song & Wei Zhu, 2021. "The 'COVID' Crash of the 2020 U.S. Stock Market," Papers 2101.03625, arXiv.org.
- Zhang, Qunzhi & Sornette, Didier & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2016.
"LPPLS bubble indicators over two centuries of the S&P 500 index,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 126-139.
- Qunzhi Zhang & Didier Sornette & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Zeynel A. Ozdemir & Hakan Yetkiner, 2016. "LPPLS Bubble Indicators over Two Centuries of the S&P 500 Index," Working Papers 201606, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Riza Demirer & Guilherme Demos & Rangan Gupta & Didier Sornette, 2019.
"On the predictability of stock market bubbles: evidence from LPPLS confidence multi-scale indicators,"
Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 843-858, May.
- Riza Demirer & Guilherme Demos & Rangan Gupta & Didier Sornette, 2017. "On the Predictability of Stock Market Bubbles: Evidence from LPPLS ConfidenceTM Multi-scale Indicators," Working Papers 201752, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- John Fry & McMillan David, 2015. "Stochastic modelling for financial bubbles and policy," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1002152-100, December.
- Leiss, Matthias & Nax, Heinrich H. & Sornette, Didier, 2015. "Super-exponential growth expectations and the global financial crisis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65434, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Didier SORNETTE, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based Models," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 14-25, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Ludovic Tangpi & Shichun Wang, 2022. "Optimal Bubble Riding: A Mean Field Game with Varying Entry Times," Papers 2209.04001, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
- Martin Herdegen & Sebastian Herrmann, 2017. "Strict Local Martingales and Optimal Investment in a Black-Scholes Model with a Bubble," Papers 1711.06679, arXiv.org.
- Shu, Min & Song, Ruiqiang & Zhu, Wei, 2021. "The ‘COVID’ crash of the 2020 U.S. Stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
- V. Filimonov & G. Demos & D. Sornette, 2017.
"Modified profile likelihood inference and interval forecast of the burst of financial bubbles,"
Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 1167-1186, August.
- Vladimir Filimonov & Guilherme Demos & Didier Sornette, 2016. "Modified Profile Likelihood Inference and Interval Forecast of the Burst of Financial Bubbles," Papers 1602.08258, arXiv.org.
- Vladimir Filimonov & Guilherme Demos & Didier Sornette, 2016. "Modified Profile Likelihood Inference and Interval Forecast of the Burst of Financial Bubbles," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-12, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Diego Ardila & Dorsa Sanadgol & Peter Cauwels & Didier Sornette, 2017. "Identification and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles in the USA," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 613-631, April.
- Damian Smug & Peter Ashwin & Didier Sornette, 2018. "Predicting financial market crashes using ghost singularities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, March.
- Christopher Lynch & Benjamin Mestel, 2017. "Logistic Model For Stock Market Bubbles And Anti-Bubbles," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(06), pages 1-24, September.
- Lin, L. & Ren, R.E. & Sornette, D., 2014. "The volatility-confined LPPL model: A consistent model of ‘explosive’ financial bubbles with mean-reverting residuals," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 210-225.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Wosnitza, Jan Henrik & Leker, Jens, 2014. "Can log-periodic power law structures arise from random fluctuations?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 228-250.
- Wosnitza, Jan Henrik & Denz, Cornelia, 2013. "Liquidity crisis detection: An application of log-periodic power law structures to default prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3666-3681.
- Zhang, Qunzhi & Sornette, Didier & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2016.
"LPPLS bubble indicators over two centuries of the S&P 500 index,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 126-139.
- Qunzhi Zhang & Didier Sornette & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Zeynel A. Ozdemir & Hakan Yetkiner, 2016. "LPPLS Bubble Indicators over Two Centuries of the S&P 500 Index," Working Papers 201606, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Filimonov, V. & Sornette, D., 2013. "A stable and robust calibration scheme of the log-periodic power law model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3698-3707.
- Shu, Min & Zhu, Wei, 2020. "Detection of Chinese stock market bubbles with LPPLS confidence indicator," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 557(C).
- Lin, L. & Ren, R.E. & Sornette, D., 2014. "The volatility-confined LPPL model: A consistent model of ‘explosive’ financial bubbles with mean-reverting residuals," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 210-225.
- Fantazzini, Dean & Nigmatullin, Erik & Sukhanovskaya, Vera & Ivliev, Sergey, 2017. "Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask. Part 2," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 45, pages 5-28.
- Song, Ruiqiang & Shu, Min & Zhu, Wei, 2022. "The 2020 global stock market crash: Endogenous or exogenous?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 585(C).
- Shu, Min & Song, Ruiqiang & Zhu, Wei, 2021. "The ‘COVID’ crash of the 2020 U.S. Stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
- Fantazzini, Dean, 2016.
"The oil price crash in 2014/15: Was there a (negative) financial bubble?,"
Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 383-396.
- Fantazzini, Dean, 2016. "The Oil Price Crash in 2014/15: Was There a (Negative) Financial Bubble?," MPRA Paper 72094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Petr Geraskin & Dean Fantazzini, 2013.
"Everything you always wanted to know about log-periodic power laws for bubble modeling but were afraid to ask,"
The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 366-391, May.
- Fantazzini, Dean & Geraskin, Petr, 2011. "Everything You Always Wanted to Know about Log Periodic Power Laws for Bubble Modelling but Were Afraid to Ask," MPRA Paper 47869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fantazzini, Dean & Nigmatullin, Erik & Sukhanovskaya, Vera & Ivliev, Sergey, 2016.
"Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask. I,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 44, pages 5-24.
- Fantazzini, Dean & Nigmatullin, Erik & Sukhanovskaya, Vera & Ivliev, Sergey, 2016. "Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask," MPRA Paper 71946, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
- Min Shu & Ruiqiang Song & Wei Zhu, 2021. "The 'COVID' Crash of the 2020 U.S. Stock Market," Papers 2101.03625, arXiv.org.
- Ruiqiang Song & Min Shu & Wei Zhu, 2021. "The 2020 Global Stock Market Crash: Endogenous or Exogenous?," Papers 2101.00327, arXiv.org.
- Vakhtina, Elena & Wosnitza, Jan Henrik, 2015. "Capital market based warning indicators of bank runs," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 417(C), pages 304-320.
- Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Bastiaensen, Ken & Cauwels, Peter, 2010.
"Bubble diagnosis and prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 149-162, June.
- Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou & D. Sornette & Ryan Woodard & Ken Bastiaensen & Peter Cauwels, "undated". "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Working Papers CCSS-09-008, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
- Zhi-Qiang JIANG & Wei-Xing ZHOU & Didier SORNETTE & Ryan WOODARD & Ken BASTIAENSEN & Peter CAUWELS, 2009. "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 09-39, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette & Ryan Woodard & Ken Bastiaensen & Peter Cauwels, 2009. "Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Papers 0909.1007, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2009.
- Li Lin & Didier Sornette, 2018. "“Speculative Influence Network” during financial bubbles: application to Chinese stock markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 385-431, July.
- Leonidas Sandoval Junior & Italo De Paula Franca, 2011. "Shocks in financial markets, price expectation, and damped harmonic oscillators," Papers 1103.1992, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2011.
- Li Lin & Didier Sornette, 2015. ""Speculative Influence Network" during financial bubbles: application to Chinese Stock Markets," Papers 1510.08162, arXiv.org.
- Cheng, Fangzheng & Fan, Tijun & Fan, Dandan & Li, Shanling, 2018. "The prediction of oil price turning points with log-periodic power law and multi-population genetic algorithm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 341-355.
More about this item
Keywords
JLS model; Financial bubbles; Crashes; Log-periodic power law; Probabilistic forecast;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:392:y:2013:i:19:p:4417-4428. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.