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Detection of Crashes and Rebounds in Major Equity Markets

Author

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  • Wanfeng Yan
  • Reda Rebib
  • Ryan Woodard
  • Didier Sornette

Abstract

Financial markets are well known for their dramatic dynamics and consequences that affect much of the world's population. Consequently, much research has aimed at understanding, identifying and forecasting crashes and rebounds in financial markets. The Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model provides an operational framework to understand and diagnose financial bubbles from rational expectations and was recently extended to negative bubbles and rebounds. Using the JLS model, we develop an alarm index based on an advanced pattern recognition method with the aim of detecting bubbles and performing forecasts of market crashes and rebounds. Testing our methodology on 10 major global equity markets, we show quantitatively that our developed alarm performs much better than chance in forecasting market crashes and rebounds. We use the derived signal to develop elementary trading strategies that produce statistically better performances than a simple buy and hold strategy.

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  • Wanfeng Yan & Reda Rebib & Ryan Woodard & Didier Sornette, 2011. "Detection of Crashes and Rebounds in Major Equity Markets," Papers 1108.0077, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1108.0077
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    Cited by:

    1. Wanfeng Yan & Edgar van Tuyll van Serooskerken, 2015. "Forecasting Financial Extremes: A Network Degree Measure of Super-Exponential Growth," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(9), pages 1-15, September.
    2. Lleo, Sébastien & Ziemba, William T., 2015. "Some historical perspectives on the Bond-Stock Earnings Yield Model for crash prediction around the world," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 399-425.
    3. Wosnitza, Jan Henrik & Leker, Jens, 2014. "Can log-periodic power law structures arise from random fluctuations?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 228-250.
    4. Zhang, Qunzhi & Sornette, Didier & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2016. "LPPLS bubble indicators over two centuries of the S&P 500 index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 126-139.
    5. Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Yan, Wanfeng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2013. "Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4417-4428.
    6. Jan-Christian Gerlach & Jerome Kreuser & Didier Sornette, 2020. "Awareness of crash risk improves Kelly strategies in simulated financial time series," Papers 2004.09368, arXiv.org.
    7. Kaizoji, Taisei & Leiss, Matthias & Saichev, Alexander & Sornette, Didier, 2015. "Super-exponential endogenous bubbles in an equilibrium model of fundamentalist and chartist traders," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 289-310.
    8. Riza Demirer & Guilherme Demos & Rangan Gupta & Didier Sornette, 2019. "On the predictability of stock market bubbles: evidence from LPPLS confidence multi-scale indicators," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 843-858, May.
    9. Shiryaev, Albert N. & Zhitlukhin, Mikhail N. & Ziemba, William T., 2014. "Land and stock bubbles, crashes and exit strategies in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59288, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Li, Chong, 2017. "Log-periodic view on critical dates of the Chinese stock market bubbles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 305-311.
    11. Jerome L Kreuser & Didier Sornette, 2017. "Super-Exponential RE Bubble Model with Efficient Crashes," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-33, Swiss Finance Institute.
    12. Vakhtina, Elena & Wosnitza, Jan Henrik, 2015. "Capital market based warning indicators of bank runs," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 417(C), pages 304-320.
    13. Wosnitza, Jan Henrik & Denz, Cornelia, 2013. "Liquidity crisis detection: An application of log-periodic power law structures to default prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3666-3681.
    14. V. I. Yukalov & E. P. Yukalova & D. Sornette, 2015. "Dynamical system theory of periodically collapsing bubbles," Papers 1507.05311, arXiv.org.

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