IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v458y2016icp126-139.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

LPPLS bubble indicators over two centuries of the S&P 500 index

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Qunzhi
  • Sornette, Didier
  • Balcilar, Mehmet
  • Gupta, Rangan
  • Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin
  • Yetkiner, Hakan

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to present novel tests for the early causal diagnostic of positive and negative bubbles in the S&P 500 index and the detection of End-of-Bubble signals with their corresponding confidence levels. We use monthly S&P 500 data covering the period from August 1791 to August 2014. This study is the first work in the literature showing the possibility to develop reliable ex-ante diagnostics of the frequent regime shifts over two centuries of data. We show that the DS LPPLS (log-periodic power law singularity) approach successfully diagnoses positive and negative bubbles, constructs efficient End-of-Bubble signals for all of the well-documented bubbles, and obtains for the first time new statistical evidence of bubbles for some other events. We also compare the DS LPPLS method to the exponential curve fitting and the generalized sup ADF test approaches and find that DS LPPLS system is more accurate in identifying well-known bubble events, with significantly smaller numbers of false negatives and false positives.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Qunzhi & Sornette, Didier & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2016. "LPPLS bubble indicators over two centuries of the S&P 500 index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 126-139.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:458:y:2016:i:c:p:126-139
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.03.103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437116301017
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2016.03.103?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rousseau, Peter L., 2002. "Jacksonian Monetary Policy, Specie Flows, And The Panic Of 1837," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(2), pages 457-488, June.
    2. Matthias LEISS & Heinrich H. NAX & Didier SORNETTE, 2014. "Super-Exponential Growth Expectations and the Global Financial Crisis," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 14-52, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Sep 2015.
    3. Didier Sornette & Ryan Woodard, & Wanfeng Yan & Wei-Xing Zhou, "undated". "Clarifications to Questions and Criticisms on the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette bubble Model," Working Papers ETH-RC-11-004, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    4. D. Sornette, 2003. "Critical Market Crashes," Papers cond-mat/0301543, arXiv.org.
    5. Leiss, Matthias & Nax, Heinrich H. & Sornette, Didier, 2015. "Super-exponential growth expectations and the global financial crisis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65434, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 452-471.
    7. Maximilian Seyrich & Didier Sornette, 2016. "Micro-foundation using percolation theory of the finite time singular behavior of the crash hazard rate in a class of rational expectation bubbles," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 27(10), pages 1-20, October.
    8. Watanabe, Kota & Takayasu, Hideki & Takayasu, Misako, 2007. "Extracting the exponential behaviors in the market data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 336-339.
    9. Qun Zhang & Qunzhi Zhang & Didier Sornette, 2016. "Early Warning Signals of Financial Crises with Multi-Scale Quantile Regressions of Log-Periodic Power Law Singularities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-43, November.
    10. Vladimir Filimonov & Didier Sornette, "undated". "A Stable and Robust Calibration Scheme of the Log-Periodic Power Law Model," Working Papers ETH-RC-11-002, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    11. Hüsler, A. & Sornette, D. & Hommes, C.H., 2013. "Super-exponential bubbles in lab experiments: Evidence for anchoring over-optimistic expectations on price," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 304-316.
    12. Petr Geraskin & Dean Fantazzini, 2013. "Everything you always wanted to know about log-periodic power laws for bubble modeling but were afraid to ask," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 366-391, May.
    13. Johansen, Anders, 2003. "Characterization of large price variations in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 157-166.
    14. Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Yan, Wanfeng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2013. "Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4417-4428.
    15. Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette, 2000. "Evaluation Of The Quantitative Prediction Of A Trend Reversal On The Japanese Stock Market In 1999," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 359-364.
    16. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    17. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    18. Graf v. Bothmer, Hans-Christian & Meister, Christian, 2003. "Predicting critical crashes? A new restriction for the free variables," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 539-547.
    19. Wanfeng Yan & Reda Rebib & Ryan Woodard & Didier Sornette, "undated". "Detection of Crashes and Rebounds in Major Equity Markets," Working Papers ETH-RC-11-001, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    20. Didier SORNETTE & Guilherme DEMOS & Zhang QUN & Peter CAUWELS & Vladimir FILIMONOV & Qunzhi ZHANG, 2015. "Real-Time Prediction and Post-Mortem Analysis of the Shanghai 2015 Stock Market Bubble and Crash," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-32, Swiss Finance Institute.
    21. Leiss, Matthias & Nax, Heinrich H. & Sornette, Didier, 2015. "Super-exponential growth expectations and the global financial crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-13.
    22. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2005. "Testing the stability of the 2000 US stock market “antibubble”," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 348(C), pages 428-452.
    23. Sornette, Didier & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2006. "Predictability of large future changes in major financial indices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 153-168.
    24. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2014. "Are there really bubbles in oil prices?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 416(C), pages 631-638.
    25. Sornette, Didier & Johansen, Anders, 1997. "Large financial crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 411-422.
    26. Maximilian Seyrich & Didier Sornette, 2016. "Micro-foundation using percolation theory of the finite-time singular behavior of the crash hazard rate in a class of rational expectation bubbles," Papers 1601.07707, arXiv.org.
    27. Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette, 1999. "Critical Crashes," Papers cond-mat/9901035, arXiv.org.
    28. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2004. "Antibubble and prediction of China's stock market and real-estate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(1), pages 243-268.
    29. Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Bastiaensen, Ken & Cauwels, Peter, 2010. "Bubble diagnosis and prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 149-162, June.
    30. A. Johansen & D. Sornette, 1999. "Financial ``Anti-Bubbles'': Log-Periodicity in Gold and Nikkei collapses," Papers cond-mat/9901268, arXiv.org.
    31. Sornette, Didier & Johansen, Anders, 1998. "A hierarchical model of financial crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 261(3), pages 581-598.
    32. Sandro Lera & Didier Sornette, 2015. "Secular bipolar growth rate of the real US GDP per capita: implications for understanding past and future economic growth," Papers 1607.04136, arXiv.org.
    33. D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Papers cond-mat/0106520, arXiv.org.
    34. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1991. "Financial Markets and Financial Crises," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number glen91-1.
    35. L. Lin & D. Sornette, 2013. "Diagnostics of rational expectation financial bubbles with stochastic mean-reverting termination times," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 344-365, May.
    36. Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette, 2010. "Shocks, Crashes and Bubbles in Financial Markets," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 53(2), pages 201-253.
    37. Anders Johansen & Olivier Ledoit & Didier Sornette, 2000. "Crashes As Critical Points," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 219-255.
    38. W. -X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2003. "Renormalization Group Analysis of the 2000-2002 anti-bubble in the US S&P 500 index: Explanation of the hierarchy of 5 crashes and Prediction," Papers physics/0301023, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2003.
    39. A. Johansen & D. Sornette, 1998. "Stock market crashes are outliers," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 141-143, January.
    40. Filimonov, V. & Sornette, D., 2013. "A stable and robust calibration scheme of the log-periodic power law model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3698-3707.
    41. Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2002. "Statistical Significance Of Periodicity And Log-Periodicity With Heavy-Tailed Correlated Noise," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 137-169.
    42. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    43. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
    44. Ben Bemanke & Harold James, 1991. "The Gold Standard, Deflation, and Financial Crisis in the Great Depression: An International Comparison," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 33-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Didier Sornette, 1998. "Large deviations and portfolio optimization," Papers cond-mat/9802059, arXiv.org, revised Jun 1998.
    46. Vladimir Filimonov & Didier Sornette, 2011. "A Stable and Robust Calibration Scheme of the Log-Periodic Power Law Model," Papers 1108.0099, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2013.
    47. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2003. "Renormalization group analysis of the 2000–2002 anti-bubble in the US S&P500 index: explanation of the hierarchy of five crashes and prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 330(3), pages 584-604.
    48. Lin, L. & Ren, R.E. & Sornette, D., 2014. "The volatility-confined LPPL model: A consistent model of ‘explosive’ financial bubbles with mean-reverting residuals," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 210-225.
    49. Maximilian Seyrich & Didier Sornette, 2016. "Micro-Foundation Using Percolation Theory of the Finite-Time Singular Behavior of the Crash Hazard Rate in a Class of Rational Expectation Bubbles," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-03, Swiss Finance Institute.
    50. Didier Sornette & Peter Cauwels, 2014. "1980–2008: The Illusion of the Perpetual Money Machine and What It Bodes for the Future," Risks, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-29, April.
    51. Sornette, Didier, 1998. "Large deviations and portfolio optimization," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 256(1), pages 251-283.
    52. Sandro Claudio LERA & Didier SORNETTE, 2015. "Secular Bipolar Growth Rate of the Real US GDP Per Capita: Implications for Understanding Past and Future Economic Growth," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-62, Swiss Finance Institute.
    53. Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2009. "The 2006–2008 oil bubble: Evidence of speculation, and prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1571-1576.
    54. Watanabe, Kota & Takayasu, Hideki & Takayasu, Misako, 2007. "A mathematical definition of the financial bubbles and crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(1), pages 120-124.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yao, Can-Zhong & Li, Hong-Yu, 2021. "A study on the bursting point of Bitcoin based on the BSADF and LPPLS methods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    2. Gupta, Rangan & Nielsen, Joshua & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2024. "Stock market bubbles and the realized volatility of oil price returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Jooste, Charl & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Periodically collapsing bubbles in the South African stock market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 191-201.
    4. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Huseyin Ozdemir, 2021. "Dynamic return and volatility spillovers among S&P 500, crude oil, and gold," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 153-170, January.
    5. Papastamatiou, Konstantinos & Karakasidis, Theodoros, 2022. "Bubble detection in Greek Stock Market: A DS-LPPLS model approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 587(C).
    6. van Eyden, Reneé & Gupta, Rangan & Nielsen, Joshua & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Investor sentiment and multi-scale positive and negative stock market bubbles in a panel of G7 countries," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    7. Rebecca Westphal & Didier Sornette, 2019. "Market Impact and Performance of Arbitrageurs of Financial Bubbles in An Agent-Based Model," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 19-29, Swiss Finance Institute.
    8. Balcilar, Mehmet & Katzke, Nico & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Date-stamping US housing market explosivity," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-33.
    9. David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Joshua Nielsen, 2022. "Stock Market Bubbles and the Forecastability of Gold Returns (and Volatility)," Working Papers 202228, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Nielsen, Joshua, 2023. "US monetary policy and BRICS stock market bubbles," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    11. Demirer, Riza & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Nielsen, Joshua, 2024. "Gold, platinum and the predictability of bubbles in global stock markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    12. Grobys, Klaus, 2024. "No reward—no effort: Will Bitcoin collapse near to the year 2140?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    13. Zhou, Wei & Huang, Yang & Chen, Jin, 2018. "The bubble and anti-bubble risk resistance analysis on the metal futures in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 947-957.
    14. Riza Demirer & Guilherme Demos & Rangan Gupta & Didier Sornette, 2019. "On the predictability of stock market bubbles: evidence from LPPLS confidence multi-scale indicators," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 843-858, May.
    15. Grobys, Klaus, 2023. "A finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the US equity market: Will the US equity market eventually collapse?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    16. Bikramaditya Ghosh & Krishna MC, 2020. "Econophysical bourse volatility – Global Evidence," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(2), pages 87-107.
    17. Xing, Dun-Zhong & Li, Hai-Feng & Li, Jiang-Cheng & Long, Chao, 2021. "Forecasting price of financial market crash via a new nonlinear potential GARCH model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 566(C).
    18. Wątorek Marcin & Stawiarski Bartosz, 2016. "Log-Periodic Power Law and Generalized Hurst Exponent Analysis in Estimating an Asset Bubble Bursting Time," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 12(3), pages 49-58, October.
    19. Yang, Hui & Ferrer, Román, 2023. "Explosive behavior in the Chinese stock market: A sectoral analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    20. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Bedriye Tunçsiper & Huseyin Ozdemir & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2020. "On the nexus among carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in G-7 countries: new insights from the historical decomposition approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(8), pages 8097-8134, December.
    21. Ji, Hongyun & Zhang, Han, 2024. "Application of the LPPL model in the identification and measurement of structural bubbles in the Chinese stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    22. Nathan Burks & Adetokunbo Fadahunsi & Ann Marie Hibbert, 2021. "Financial Contagion: A Tale of Three Bubbles," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-14, May.
    23. Pierluigi Vellucci, 2021. "A critique of financial neoliberalism: a perspective combining multidisciplinary methods and commodity markets," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 1-11, March.
    24. Caraiani, Petre & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Nielsen, Joshua, 2023. "Monetary policy and bubbles in G7 economies using a panel VAR approach: Implications for sustainable development," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 133-155.
    25. Westphal, Rebecca & Sornette, Didier, 2020. "Market impact and performance of arbitrageurs of financial bubbles in an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1-23.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Yan, Wanfeng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2013. "Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4417-4428.
    2. Lin, L. & Ren, R.E. & Sornette, D., 2014. "The volatility-confined LPPL model: A consistent model of ‘explosive’ financial bubbles with mean-reverting residuals," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 210-225.
    3. Shu, Min & Zhu, Wei, 2020. "Detection of Chinese stock market bubbles with LPPLS confidence indicator," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 557(C).
    4. Jerome L Kreuser & Didier Sornette, 2017. "Super-Exponential RE Bubble Model with Efficient Crashes," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-33, Swiss Finance Institute.
    5. Wosnitza, Jan Henrik & Leker, Jens, 2014. "Can log-periodic power law structures arise from random fluctuations?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 228-250.
    6. V. Filimonov & G. Demos & D. Sornette, 2017. "Modified profile likelihood inference and interval forecast of the burst of financial bubbles," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 1167-1186, August.
    7. Li Lin & Didier Sornette, 2015. ""Speculative Influence Network" during financial bubbles: application to Chinese Stock Markets," Papers 1510.08162, arXiv.org.
    8. Riza Demirer & Guilherme Demos & Rangan Gupta & Didier Sornette, 2019. "On the predictability of stock market bubbles: evidence from LPPLS confidence multi-scale indicators," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 843-858, May.
    9. Shu, Min & Song, Ruiqiang & Zhu, Wei, 2021. "The ‘COVID’ crash of the 2020 U.S. Stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    10. Fantazzini, Dean & Nigmatullin, Erik & Sukhanovskaya, Vera & Ivliev, Sergey, 2017. "Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask. Part 2," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 45, pages 5-28.
    11. Fantazzini, Dean & Nigmatullin, Erik & Sukhanovskaya, Vera & Ivliev, Sergey, 2016. "Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask. I," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 44, pages 5-24.
    12. Qun Zhang & Qunzhi Zhang & Didier Sornette, 2016. "Early Warning Signals of Financial Crises with Multi-Scale Quantile Regressions of Log-Periodic Power Law Singularities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-43, November.
    13. Li Lin & Didier Sornette, 2018. "“Speculative Influence Network” during financial bubbles: application to Chinese stock markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 385-431, July.
    14. Wosnitza, Jan Henrik & Denz, Cornelia, 2013. "Liquidity crisis detection: An application of log-periodic power law structures to default prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(17), pages 3666-3681.
    15. Fantazzini, Dean, 2016. "The oil price crash in 2014/15: Was there a (negative) financial bubble?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 383-396.
    16. Cheng, Fangzheng & Fan, Tijun & Fan, Dandan & Li, Shanling, 2018. "The prediction of oil price turning points with log-periodic power law and multi-population genetic algorithm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 341-355.
    17. Song, Ruiqiang & Shu, Min & Zhu, Wei, 2022. "The 2020 global stock market crash: Endogenous or exogenous?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 585(C).
    18. Min Shu & Ruiqiang Song & Wei Zhu, 2021. "The 'COVID' Crash of the 2020 U.S. Stock Market," Papers 2101.03625, arXiv.org.
    19. Bikramaditya Ghosh & Spyros Papathanasiou & Nikita Ramchandani & Dimitrios Kenourgios, 2021. "Diagnosis and Prediction of IIGPS’ Countries Bubble Crashes during BREXIT," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-14, April.
    20. Petr Geraskin & Dean Fantazzini, 2013. "Everything you always wanted to know about log-periodic power laws for bubble modeling but were afraid to ask," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 366-391, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    S&P 500; LPPL method; Stock market bubble; Forecast; Bubble indicators;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:458:y:2016:i:c:p:126-139. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.