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Land and stock bubbles, crashes and exit strategies in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013

Author

Listed:
  • Shiryaev, Albert N.
  • Zhitlukhin, Mikhail N.
  • Ziemba, Bill
  • Ziemba, William T.

Abstract

We study the land and stock markets in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013. While the Nikkei stock average in the late 1980s and its -48% crash in 1990 is generally recognized as a financial market bubble, a bigger bubble and crash was in the land market. The crash in the Nikkei which started on the first trading day of 1990 was predictable in April 1989 using the bond-stock earnings yield model which signaled a crash but not when. We show that it was possible to use the change point detection model based solely on price movements for profitable exits of long positions both circa 1990 and in 2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Shiryaev, Albert N. & Zhitlukhin, Mikhail N. & Ziemba, Bill & Ziemba, William T., 2014. "Land and stock bubbles, crashes and exit strategies in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59288, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:59288
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    2. Lleo, S├ębastien & Ziemba, William T., 2015. "Some historical perspectives on the Bond-Stock Earnings Yield Model for crash prediction around the world," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 399-425.
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    4. D. Sornette, 2003. "Critical Market Crashes," Papers cond-mat/0301543, arXiv.org.
    5. Evanoff, Douglas D. & Kaufman, George G. & Malliaris, A. G. (ed.), 2012. "New Perspectives on Asset Price Bubbles," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199844333.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
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    11. Douglas Stone & William T. Ziemba, 1993. "Land and Stock Prices in Japan," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 149-165, Summer.
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    14. Lleo, Sebastien & Ziemba, William T., 2014. "Does the bond-stock earning yield differential model predict equity market corrections better than high P/E models?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59290, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bubble; change point detection; bond-stock model; Nikkei stock average; golf course membership index;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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