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Land and Stock Prices in Japan

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  • Douglas Stone
  • William T. Ziemba

Abstract

This paper discusses the rise of Japanese stock and land prices in the past four decades and their dramatic decline in the early 1990s. To what extent can fundamental factors explain both the price levels and the returns from land and stock in Japan? Are land prices driving stock prices, or the other way around, or are still other factors affecting both? How has government policy interacted with the price changes? In practice, it is very difficult to solve the problem of separating the explanation that a bubble occurred from the possibility that the underlying fundamental problem is misspecified. We believe that the bulk of the rise in Japanese asset prices from 1985-89 and the decline during 1990-92 was driven by interest rate and credit market conditions. However, in certain speculative land markets, there is some evidence in support of the bubble hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas Stone & William T. Ziemba, 1993. "Land and Stock Prices in Japan," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 149-165, Summer.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:7:y:1993:i:3:p:149-65 Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.7.3.149
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    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.7.3.149
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gonzalo Edwards & Jaime Hurtubia & Gert Wagner, 1995. "El Suelo Urbano y la Composición de la Riqueza," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 32(96), pages 151-164.
    2. Lleo, Sébastien & Ziemba, William T., 2015. "Some historical perspectives on the Bond-Stock Earnings Yield Model for crash prediction around the world," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 399-425.
    3. Drobyshevsky Sergey & Narkevich Sergey & E. Pikulina & D. Polevoy, 2009. "Analysis Of a Possible Bubble On the Russian Real Estate Market," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 128.
    4. Carl Bonham & Byron Gangnes, 1995. "Intervention Analysis with Cointegrated Time Series: The Case of the Hawaii Hotel Room Tax," Working Papers 199505, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    5. M. Imtiaz Mazumder & Nazneen Ahmad, 2010. "Greed, financial innovation or laxity of regulation?: A close look into the 2007-2009 financial crisis and stock market volatility," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 110-134, June.
    6. Yang Hu & Les Oxley, 2017. "Bubble Contagion: Evidence from Japan's Asset Price Bubble of the 1980-90s," Working Papers in Economics 17/20, University of Waikato.
    7. Bertrand Crettez & Claire Loupias & Philippe Michel, 1997. "Croissance et modes de propriété des terres," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, pages 119-146.
    8. Chung, Heetaik & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1998. "Fundamental and nonfundamental components in stock prices of Pacific-Rim countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, pages 321-346.
    9. Christy Siegel & Steven B. Caudill & Franklin G. Mixon, 2013. "Clear skies, dark waters: The Gulf oil spill and the price of coastal condominiums in Alabama," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 42-53.
    10. Brunner, Allan D. & Kamin, Steven B., 1996. "Determinants of the 1991-1993 Japanese recession: Evidence from a structural model of the Japanese economy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 363-399, December.
    11. Sami Alpanda, 2012. "Taxation, collateral use of land, and Japanese asset prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 819-850.
    12. Robert A. Jarrow, 2015. "Asset Price Bubbles," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 201-218, December.
    13. Yang Hu & Les Oxley, 2017. "Exuberance in British Share Prices during the Railway Mania of the 1840s: Evidence from the Phillips, Shi and Yu Test," Working Papers in Economics 17/09, University of Waikato.
    14. Shiryaev, Albert N. & Zhitlukhin, Mikhail N. & Ziemba, Bill & Ziemba, William T., 2014. "Land and stock bubbles, crashes and exit strategies in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59288, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. repec:adr:anecst:y:1997:i:48:p:07 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Fukujyu Yamazaki & Takako Idee & Toshiaki Watanabe, 1999. "Distortionary Taxation, Excessive Price Sensitivity, and Japanese Land Prices," NBER Working Papers 7254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Kanemoto, Yoshitsugu, 1997. "The housing question in Japan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 613-641, November.
    18. Alpanda, Sami, 2007. "The Boom-Bust Cycle in Japanese Asset Prices," MPRA Paper 5895, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Roehner, Bertrand M., 1999. "Spatial analysis of real estate price bubbles: Paris, 1984-1993," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 73-88, January.
    20. Sato, Kazuo, 1995. "Bubbles in Japan's urban land market: An analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, pages 153-176.
    21. Azeez, A.A. & Yonezawa, Yasuhiro, 2006. "Macroeconomic factors and the empirical content of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in the Japanese stock market," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 568-591, December.
    22. Gonzalo Edwards & Jaime Hurtubia & Gert Wagner, "undated". "El Suelo Urbano y el Mercado de Activos," Documentos de Trabajo 177, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    23. Homburg, Stefan, 2017. "A Study in Monetary Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198807537.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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