Do Birds of a Feather Flock Together? Speculator Herding in the World Oil Market
This paper looks at speculative behavior in the international oil market. Much of the blame for oil-market turbulence has been placed on speculators, particularly hedge funds. Speculative capital has been characterized as “hot money,” with capital flows driven by “herding,” “flocking,” and “contagion.” Policies to deal with volatility by weakening, or even disabling speculation, have been based largely on anecdote, convenience (speculators have long served as scapegoats for various problems), and ideology, rather than careful analysis. Part of the problem arises from the secrecy with which speculators operate. Because speculative trading cannot easily be observed, it is difficult to assess speculators’ contribution, if any, to volatility. The paper utilizes a large, detailed database on individual trader positions in crude-oil and heating-oil futures markets. The paper is exploratory, with focus on measuring and assessing the tendency of speculators to herd (trade in the same direction as a group) and flock (trade in the same direction by subgroups of speculators).
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Takatoshi Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1996.
"Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment,"
_005, University of California at Berkeley, Haas School of Business.
- Takatoshi Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1998. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(3), pages 1111-1130, 06.
- Takatoshi Ito Richard K. Lyons and Michael T. Melvin., 1997. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-270, University of California at Berkeley.
- Takatoshi Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1997. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," NBER Working Papers 5936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ito, T. & Lyons, R. & Melvin, M.T., 1997. "Is There Private Information on the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Papers 97-04, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
- Takatosh Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1997. "Is there private information in the FX market? the Tokyo experiment," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 97-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Barry Eichengreen, James Tobin, and Charles Wyplosz., 1994.
"Two Cases for Sand in the Wheels of International Finance,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers
C94-045, University of California at Berkeley.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Tobin, James & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Two Cases for Sand in the Wheels of International Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 162-72, January.
- Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, 04.
- Woochan Kim & Shang-Jin Wei, 1999.
"Foreign Portfolio Investors before and during a Crisis,"
CID Working Papers
6, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
- Kim, Woochan & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2002. "Foreign portfolio investors before and during a crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 77-96, January.
- Wei, S.J. & Kim, W., 1999. "Foreign Portfolio Investors Before and During a Crisis," Papers 6, Chicago - Graduate School of Business.
- Woochan Kim & Shang-Jin Wei, 1999. "Foreign Portfolio Investors Before and during a Crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 210, OECD Publishing.
- Woochan Kim & Shang-Jin Wei, 1999. "Foreign Portfolio Investors Before and During a Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6968, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Louis Ederington & Jae Ha Lee, 2002. "Who Trades Futures and How: Evidence from the Heating Oil Futures Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 353-374, April.
- Hartzmark, Michael L, 1987. "Returns to Individual Traders of Futures: Aggregate Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1292-1306, December.
- Scharfstein, David. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1988.
"Herd behavior and investment,"
WP 2062-88., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Devenow, Andrea & Welch, Ivo, 1996. "Rational herding in financial economics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 603-615, April.
- Phillips, Gordon M & Weiner, Robert J, 1994. "Information and Normal Backwardation as Determinants of Trading Performance: Evidence from the North Sea Oil Forward Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 76-95, January.
- Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1990. "On Testing for Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 85-101, Spring.
- Robert J Weiner, 2005. "Speculation in international crises: report from the Gulf," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(5), pages 576-587, September.
- Fung, William & Hsieh, David A., 1999. "A primer on hedge funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 309-331, September.
- Dale, Charles & Zyren, John, 1996. "Noncommercial Trading in the Energy Futures Market," MPRA Paper 47463, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
- Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-06-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Webmaster)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.