IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rff/dpaper/dp-06-31.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Birds of a Feather Flock Together? Speculator Herding in the World Oil Market

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Weiner

    () (Resources for the Future)

Abstract

This paper looks at speculative behavior in the international oil market. Much of the blame for oil-market turbulence has been placed on speculators, particularly hedge funds. Speculative capital has been characterized as “hot money,” with capital flows driven by “herding,” “flocking,” and “contagion.” Policies to deal with volatility by weakening, or even disabling speculation, have been based largely on anecdote, convenience (speculators have long served as scapegoats for various problems), and ideology, rather than careful analysis. Part of the problem arises from the secrecy with which speculators operate. Because speculative trading cannot easily be observed, it is difficult to assess speculators’ contribution, if any, to volatility. The paper utilizes a large, detailed database on individual trader positions in crude-oil and heating-oil futures markets. The paper is exploratory, with focus on measuring and assessing the tendency of speculators to herd (trade in the same direction as a group) and flock (trade in the same direction by subgroups of speculators).

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Weiner, 2006. "Do Birds of a Feather Flock Together? Speculator Herding in the World Oil Market," Discussion Papers dp-06-31, Resources For the Future.
  • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-06-31
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rff.org/RFF/documents/RFF-DP-06-31.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Tobin, James & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Two Cases for Sand in the Wheels of International Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 162-172, January.
    2. Takatoshi Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1996. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Working Papers _005, University of California at Berkeley, Haas School of Business.
    3. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
    4. Kim, Woochan & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2002. "Foreign portfolio investors before and during a crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 77-96, January.
    5. Dale, Charles & Zyren, John, 1996. "Noncommercial Trading in the Energy Futures Market," MPRA Paper 47463, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:hrv:faseco:33077905 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
    8. Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, April.
    9. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-479, June.
    10. Hartzmark, Michael L, 1987. "Returns to Individual Traders of Futures: Aggregate Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1292-1306, December.
    11. Robert J Weiner, 2005. "Speculation in international crises: report from the Gulf," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 36(5), pages 576-587, September.
    12. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A., 1999. "A primer on hedge funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 309-331, September.
    13. Louis Ederington & Jae Ha Lee, 2002. "Who Trades Futures and How: Evidence from the Heating Oil Futures Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 353-374, April.
    14. Devenow, Andrea & Welch, Ivo, 1996. "Rational herding in financial economics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 603-615, April.
    15. Takatoshi Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1998. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(3), pages 1111-1130, June.
    16. Phillips, Gordon M & Weiner, Robert J, 1994. "Information and Normal Backwardation as Determinants of Trading Performance: Evidence from the North Sea Oil Forward Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 76-95, January.
    17. Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1990. "On Testing for Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 85-101, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Demirer, Rıza & Lee, Hsiang-Tai & Lien, Donald, 2015. "Does the stock market drive herd behavior in commodity futures markets?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 32-44.
    2. Hache, Emmanuel & Lantz, Frédéric, 2013. "Speculative trading and oil price dynamic: A study of the WTI market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 334-340.
    3. Demirer, Riza & Kutan, Ali M. & Chen, Chun-Da, 2010. "Do investors herd in emerging stock markets?: Evidence from the Taiwanese market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 283-295, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Weiner, Robert J., 2000. "Sheep in Wolves' Clothing?," Cahiers de recherche 0001, GREEN.
    2. Pegah Dehghani & Ros Zam Zam Sapian, 2014. "Sectoral herding behavior in the aftermarket of Malaysian IPOs," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 227-246, July.
    3. Guney, Yilmaz & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Komba, Gabriel, 2017. "Herding in frontier markets: Evidence from African stock exchanges," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 152-175.
    4. Ian Koetsier & Jacob Bikker, 2017. "Herding behaviour of Dutch pension funds in sovereign bond investments," DNB Working Papers 569, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Weiner, Robert J., 2002. "Sheep in wolves' clothing? Speculators and price volatility in petroleum futures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 391-400.
    6. Rahman, M. Arifur & Chowdhury, Shah Saeed Hassan & Shibley Sadique, M., 2015. "Herding where retail investors dominate trading: The case of Saudi Arabia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 46-60.
    7. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Rong, Wu & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2015. "Herding on fundamental information: A comparative study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 589-598.
    8. Li, Wei & Rhee, Ghon & Wang, Steven Shuye, 2017. "Differences in herding: Individual vs. institutional investors," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 174-185.
    9. Sylvain Marsat, 2006. "Does The Consensus Prevail? Experimental Evidence," Working Papers hal-02156562, HAL.
    10. Economou, Fotini & Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Yordanov, Nikolay, 2015. "Do fund managers herd in frontier markets — and why?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 76-87.
    11. Uchida, Hirofumi & Nakagawa, Ryuichi, 2007. "Herd behavior in the Japanese loan market: Evidence from bank panel data," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 555-583, October.
    12. I. Koetsier & J.A. Bikker, 2018. "Herding behavior of Dutch pension funds in asset class investments," Working Papers 18-04, Utrecht School of Economics.
    13. Lin, Anchor Y. & Lin, Yueh-Neng, 2014. "Herding of institutional investors and margin traders on extreme market movements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 186-198.
    14. Economou, Fotini & Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Goyal, Abhinav & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2015. "Herding dynamics in exchange groups: Evidence from Euronext," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 228-244.
    15. Ashish Kumar Garg & Subrata Kumar Mitra & Dilip Kumar, 2016. "Do foreign institutional investors herd in emerging markets? A study of individual stocks," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 43(3), pages 281-300, September.
    16. Lin, Anchor Y. & Swanson, Peggy E., 2008. "Foreigners' perceptions of U.S. markets: Do foreigners exhibit herding tendencies?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 179-203.
    17. Andrikopoulos, Panagiotis & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Leite Ferreira, Mario Pedro & Verousis, Thanos, 2017. "Intraday herding on a cross-border exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 25-36.
    18. Dang, Ha V. & Lin, Mi, 2016. "Herd mentality in the stock market: On the role of idiosyncratic participants with heterogeneous information," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 247-260.
    19. Demirer, Riza & Kutan, Ali M. & Chen, Chun-Da, 2010. "Do investors herd in emerging stock markets?: Evidence from the Taiwanese market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 283-295, November.
    20. Goodfellow, Christiane & Bohl, Martin T. & Gebka, Bartosz, 2009. "Together we invest? Individual and institutional investors' trading behaviour in Poland," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 212-221, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil; speculation; volatility; herding; derivatives; futures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-06-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Webmaster). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/degraus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.