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Do Birds of a Feather Flock Together? Speculator Herding in the World Oil Market

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  • Robert Weiner

    (Resources for the Future)

Abstract

This paper looks at speculative behavior in the international oil market. Much of the blame for oil-market turbulence has been placed on speculators, particularly hedge funds. Speculative capital has been characterized as “hot money,” with capital flows driven by “herding,” “flocking,” and “contagion.” Policies to deal with volatility by weakening, or even disabling speculation, have been based largely on anecdote, convenience (speculators have long served as scapegoats for various problems), and ideology, rather than careful analysis. Part of the problem arises from the secrecy with which speculators operate. Because speculative trading cannot easily be observed, it is difficult to assess speculators’ contribution, if any, to volatility. The paper utilizes a large, detailed database on individual trader positions in crude-oil and heating-oil futures markets. The paper is exploratory, with focus on measuring and assessing the tendency of speculators to herd (trade in the same direction as a group) and flock (trade in the same direction by subgroups of speculators).

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Weiner, 2006. "Do Birds of a Feather Flock Together? Speculator Herding in the World Oil Market," RFF Working Paper Series dp-06-31, Resources for the Future.
    • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-06-31
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    File URL: http://www.rff.org/RFF/documents/RFF-DP-06-31.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Demirer, Rıza & Lee, Hsiang-Tai & Lien, Donald, 2015. "Does the stock market drive herd behavior in commodity futures markets?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 32-44.
    2. Hache, Emmanuel & Lantz, Frédéric, 2013. "Speculative trading and oil price dynamic: A study of the WTI market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 334-340.
    3. Omar Masood & Hosein Piranfar, 2010. "Determinants of returns and decisions of fund managers: Survey evidence from four Turkish banks," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 43-54, April.
    4. Emmanuel Frot & Javier Santiso, 2011. "Herding in Aid Allocation," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 54-74, February.
    5. Gangopadhyay, Partha & Nilakantan, Rahul, 2021. "Peer effects and social learning in banks’ investments in information technology," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 456-463.
    6. Demirer, Riza & Kutan, Ali M. & Chen, Chun-Da, 2010. "Do investors herd in emerging stock markets?: Evidence from the Taiwanese market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 283-295, November.
    7. R?za Demirer & Hsiang-Tai Lee & Donald Lien, 2013. "Commodity Financialization and Herd Behavior in Commodity Futures Markets," Working Papers 0221fin, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil; speculation; volatility; herding; derivatives; futures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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