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Information and Normal Backwardation as Determinants of Trading Performance: Evidence from the North Sea Oil Forward Market

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  • Phillips, Gordon M
  • Weiner, Robert J

Abstract

This paper utilizes transaction-specific data on forward trading in the international petroleum market to test directly predictions from the theory of normal backwardation against information-based predictions of trader performance. With the ability to identify buyers and sellers, the authors find that no traders make significant profits on interday measures. Within the day, however, traders likely to have superior information make significant profits. The results are not supportive of normal backwardation but are consistent with the time pattern of information dissemination in this market--deals made during the day are widely reported only at day's end. Copyright 1994 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Phillips, Gordon M & Weiner, Robert J, 1994. "Information and Normal Backwardation as Determinants of Trading Performance: Evidence from the North Sea Oil Forward Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 76-95, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:104:y:1994:i:422:p:76-95
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    Cited by:

    1. Carl R. Zulauf & Scott H. Irwin, 1998. "Market Efficiency and Marketing to Enhance Income of Crop Producers," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 308-331.
    2. Olivier Rousse & Benoît Sévi, 2016. "Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market," Working Papers 2016.70, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. Tanga McDaniel & Neuhoff, K., 2002. "Use of Long-term Auctions for Network Investment," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0213, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Robert Weiner, 2006. "Do Birds of a Feather Flock Together? Speculator Herding in the World Oil Market," Discussion Papers dp-06-31, Resources For the Future.
    5. Weiner, Robert J., 2002. "Sheep in wolves' clothing? Speculators and price volatility in petroleum futures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 391-400.
    6. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.

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