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Herding in Aid Allocation

  • Emmanuel Frot
  • Javier Santiso

Aid ineffectiveness, fragmentation, and volatility have already been highlighted by scholars and OECD studies. Far fewer studies have been devoted to another problem of capital flows: herding behaviour. Building upon a methodology applied to financial markets, where herding is a common feature, this article attempts to measure herding behaviour in the allocation of foreign aid, proposing different indexes that try to capture the specific features of aid allocation. Of course, herding can also be beneficial. When a country faces an earthquake, a tsunami, or any humanitarian disaster, the rush of donors is a positive factor. Excluding such cases of beneficial herding, we attempt to focus on pure herding behaviour, creating pendulum swing effects comparable to those in financial markets. . Our different indexes all detect donor herding, its exact size depending on the measure adopted. Our preferred index, relying on threeyear disbursements, indicates a significant level of herding, similar to that which is found on financial markets. We also uncover major differences across different types of donors, with no, or very limited, herding among multilateral donors, in contrast to bilateral donors, always subject to herding behaviour. We then follow by investigating the empirical causes of herding. We find that while political transitions away from democracy are accompanied by herding out, transitions towards democracy do not affect herding levels. Finally, we show that observable determinants actually explain little of the herding levels, leaving a large part of herding unexplained. L’inefficacité, la fragmentation et la volatilité de l’aide au développement ont été souvent soulignées dans les travaux académiques comme dans ceux de l’OCDE. Un autre écueil relatif aux flux de capitaux a été beaucoup moins étudié : les comportements moutonniers. Cet article évalue ce comportement dans l’allocation de l’aide. Il s’inspire d’une méthodologie proche de celle utilisée pour les ma

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Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Kyklos.

Volume (Year): 64 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 54-74

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Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:64:y:2011:i:1:p:54-74
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  1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 6312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Barbara Alemanni & José Renato Haas Ornelas, 2006. "Herding Behavior by Equity Foreign Investors on Emerging Markets," Working Papers Series 125, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Gina Yannitell Reinhardt, 2006. "Shortcuts and Signals: An Analysis of the Micro-level Determinants of Aid Allocation, with Case Study Evidence from Brazil," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 297-312, 05.
  4. Timothy D. Lane & Leslie Lipschitz & Cristina Arellano & Ales Bulir, 2005. "The Dynamic Implications of Foreign Aid and Its Variability," IMF Working Papers 05/119, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Uchida, Hirofumi & Nakagawa, Ryuichi, 2007. "Herd behavior in the Japanese loan market: Evidence from bank panel data," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 555-583, October.
  6. Rodríguez, Javier & Santiso, Javier, 2008. "Banking on Democracy: The Political Economy of International Private Bank Lending in Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 12907, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Stefaan Marysse & An Ansoms & Danny Cassimon, 2007. "The Aid 'Darlings' and 'Orphans' of the Great Lakes Region in Africa," The European Journal of Development Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 433-458.
  8. Dollar, David & Alesina, Alberto, 2000. "Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?," Scholarly Articles 4553020, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Knack, Stephen & Rahman, Aminur, 2007. "Donor fragmentation and bureaucratic quality in aid recipients," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 176-197, May.
  10. Bulír, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2008. "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2048-2066, October.
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  12. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2001. "Herd Behavior and Cascading in Capital Markets: A Review and Synthesis," MPRA Paper 5186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Helmut Reisen & Sokhna Ndoye, 2008. "Prudent versus Imprudent Lending to Africa: From debt relief to emerging lenders," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 268, OECD Publishing.
  14. Alberto Alesina & Beatrice Weder, 1999. "Do Corrupt Governments Receive Less Foreign Aid?," NBER Working Papers 7108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Leslie E. Papke & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1993. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(k) Plan Participation Rates," NBER Technical Working Papers 0147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Finn Tarp & Christian F. Bach & Henrik Hansen & Søren Baunsgaard, 1998. "Danish Aid Policy: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers 98-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  17. Javier Rodríguez & Javier Santiso, 2007. "Banking on Development: Private Banks ans Aid Donors in Developing Countries," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 263, OECD Publishing.
  18. Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Herding among security analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 369-396, December.
  19. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
  20. Emmanuel Frot & Javier Santiso, 2008. "Development Aid and Portfolio Funds: Trends, Volatility and Fragmentation," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 275, OECD Publishing.
  21. William Easterly & Tobias Pfutze, 2008. "Where Does the Money Go? Best and Worst Practices in Foreign Aid," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 29-52, Spring.
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