IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/81453.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Identifying Bubbles in Latin American Equity Markets: Phillips-Perron-based Tests and Linkages

Author

Listed:
  • Escobari, Diego
  • Garcia, Sergio
  • Mellado, Cristhian

Abstract

The identification of periods of price exuberance in equity markets is of great interest to policy makers and financial investors. In this paper, we identify financial bubble periods within the major equity markets in Latin America. We use the recently developed recursive Augmented Dickey-Fuller methods and propose similar recursive procedures based on Phillips-Perron. We find that conditional on bubbles in the S&P 500, there are strong links between bubble episodes across equity markets in Latin America. In addition, the financial bubble periods in Latin America begin earlier and last longer than bubble periods in the United States during the 2008 financial crisis. Price bubbles were identified prior to the establishment of the Integrated Latin American Market (MILA).

Suggested Citation

  • Escobari, Diego & Garcia, Sergio & Mellado, Cristhian, 2017. "Identifying Bubbles in Latin American Equity Markets: Phillips-Perron-based Tests and Linkages," MPRA Paper 81453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:81453
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/81453/1/MPRA_paper_81453.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Escobari, Diego & Jafarinejad, Mohammad, 2016. "Date stamping bubbles in Real Estate Investment Trusts," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 224-230.
    2. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Robert Sollis, 2015. "Recursive Right-Tailed Unit Root Tests for an Explosive Asset Price Bubble," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 166-187.
    3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    4. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Sollis, Robert & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2016. "Tests for explosive financial bubbles in the presence of non-stationary volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 548-574.
    5. Rappoport, Peter & White, Eugene N., 1993. "Was There a Bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 549-574, September.
    6. Bittencourt, Manoel, 2012. "Financial development and economic growth in Latin America: Is Schumpeter right?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 341-355.
    7. Cristhian Mellado & Diego Escobari, 2015. "Virtual integration of financial markets: a dynamic correlation analysis of the creation of the Latin American Integrated Market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(19), pages 1956-1971, April.
    8. de la Torre, Augusto & Gozzi, Juan Carlos & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2007. "Innovative experiences in access to finance : market friendly roles for the visible hand ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4326, The World Bank.
    9. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    10. Diego Escobari & Damian Damianov & Andres Bello, 2015. "A time series test to identify housing bubbles," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(1), pages 136-152, January.
    11. Jose Pagan & Gokce Soydemir, 2000. "On the linkages between equity markets in Latin America," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 207-210.
    12. Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," NBER Working Papers 8554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Bittencourt, Manoel, 2012. "Inflation and economic growth in Latin America: Some panel time-series evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 333-340.
    14. Araújo, Eurilton, 2009. "Macroeconomic shocks and the co-movement of stock returns in Latin America," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 331-344, December.
    15. Geoffrey Poitras (ed.), 2012. "Handbook of Research on Stock Market Globalization," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13048.
    16. Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1986. "Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality ofStock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 483-498, June.
    17. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    18. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "The Theory of Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 746-754, September.
    19. Sam Astill & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2017. "Tests for an end-of-sample bubble in financial time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 651-666, October.
    20. Chen, Gong-meng & Firth, Michael & Meng Rui, Oliver, 2002. "Stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1113-1141, June.
    21. Kenneth D. West, 1987. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(3), pages 553-580.
    22. Kleidon, Allan W, 1986. "Variance Bounds Tests and Stock Price Valuation Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 953-1001, October.
    23. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martínez-García & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Grossman, 2016. "Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 419-449, November.
    24. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-574, May.
    25. Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette, 2001. "Bubbles And Anti-Bubbles In Latin-American, Asian And Western Stock Markets: An Empirical Study," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(06), pages 853-920.
    26. Xiaoli L. Etienne & Scott H. Irwin & Philip Garcia, 2015. "Price Explosiveness, Speculation, and Grain Futures Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 65-87.
    27. Mendes, Beatriz V.M. & Leal, Ricardo P.C. & Carvalhal-da-Silva, Andre, 2007. "Clustering in emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 194-205, September.
    28. Chiang, Thomas C. & Jeon, Bang Nam & Li, Huimin, 2007. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from Asian markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1206-1228, November.
    29. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    30. Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1988. "Evidence on stock market speculative bubbles: Japan, the United States, and Great Britain," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 13(Sum), pages 4-16.
    31. L. Sarno & M. P. Taylor, 2003. "An empirical investigation of asset price bubbles in Latin American emerging financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 635-643.
    32. Mr. Jose De Gregorio, 2013. "Resilience in Latin America: Lessons from Macroeconomic Management and Financial Policies," IMF Working Papers 2013/259, International Monetary Fund.
    33. McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1994. "Bubbles, Stock Returns, and Duration Dependence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 379-401, September.
    34. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    35. Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1990. "On Testing for Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 85-101, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yang Hu, 2023. "A review of Phillips‐type right‐tailed unit root bubble detection tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 141-158, February.
    2. Sharma, Shahil & Escobari, Diego, 2018. "Identifying price bubble periods in the energy sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 418-429.
    3. Ayesha Liaqat & Mian Sajid Nazir & Iftikhar Ahmad, 2019. "Identification of multiple stock bubbles in an emerging market: application of GSADF approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 301-326, August.
    4. Figlioli, Bruno & Lima, Fabiano Guasti, 2019. "Stock pricing in Latin America: The synchronicity effect," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-17.
    5. Ma, Richie Ruchuan & Xiong, Tao, 2021. "Price explosiveness in nonferrous metal futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 75-90.
    6. Ayesha Liaqat & Mian Sajid Nazir & Iftikhar Ahmad & Hammad Hassan Mirza & Farooq Anwar, 2020. "Do stock price bubbles correlate between China and Pakistan? An inquiry of pre‐ and post‐Chinese investment in Pakistani capital market under China‐Pakistan Economic Corridor regime," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 323-335, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., 2016. "Non-linearities in financial bubbles: Theory and Bayesian evidence from S&P500," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 61-70.
    2. Tran, Thi Bich Ngoc, 2017. "Speculative bubbles in emerging stock markets and macroeconomic factors: A new empirical evidence for Asia and Latin America," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 454-467.
    3. Chris Brooks & Apostolos Katsaris, 2003. "Rational Speculative Bubbles: An Empirical Investigation of the London Stock Exchange," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 319-346, October.
    4. Moreira, Afonso M. & Martins, Luis F., 2020. "A new mechanism for anticipating price exuberance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 199-221.
    5. Vogel, Harold L. & Werner, Richard A., 2015. "An analytical review of volatility metrics for bubbles and crashes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 15-28.
    6. Ullah, Irfan & Ahmed, Mumtaz, 2021. "Identifying Phases of Ebullience in EFTA Stock Markets," MPRA Paper 109633, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Horváth, Lajos & Li, Hemei & Liu, Zhenya, 2022. "How to identify the different phases of stock market bubbles statistically?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    9. Tolhurst, Tor N., 2018. "A Model-Free Bubble Detection Method: Application to the World Market for Superstar Wines," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274387, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Yuchao Fan, 2022. "Dissecting the dot-com bubble in the 1990s NASDAQ," Papers 2206.14130, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    11. Ahmad, Mahyudin, 2012. "Duration dependence test for rational speculative bubble: the strength and weakness," MPRA Paper 42156, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-1214, December.
    13. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martínez-García & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Grossman, 2016. "Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 419-449, November.
    14. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Jooste, Charl & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Periodically collapsing bubbles in the South African stock market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 191-201.
    15. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Dividend Innovations and Stock Price Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 37-61, January.
    16. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, February.
    17. Anderson, Keith & Brooks, Chris & Katsaris, Apostolos, 2010. "Speculative bubbles in the S&P 500: Was the tech bubble confined to the tech sector?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 345-361, June.
    18. Itamar Caspi, 2015. "Testing for a housing bubble at the national and regional level: the case of Israel," Globalization Institute Working Papers 246, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    19. Enrique Sentana, 1993. "The econometrics of the stock market I: rationality tests," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(3), pages 401-420, September.
    20. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios & Konstantakis, Konstantinos, 2016. "Financial Bubble Detection : A Non-Linear Method with Application to S&P 500," MPRA Paper 74477, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GSADF; Latin America; MILA; Price bubbles; Price exuberance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:81453. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.