IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/quantf/v15y2015i9p1449-1469.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Land and stock bubbles, crashes and exit strategies in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013

Author

Listed:
  • A. N. Shiryaev
  • M. V. Zhitlukhin
  • W. T. Ziemba

Abstract

We study the land and stock markets in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013. While the Nikkei stock average in the late 1980s and its % crash in 1990 is generally recognized as a financial market bubble, a bigger bubble and crash was in the land market. The crash in the Nikkei which started on the first trading day of 1990 was predictable in April 1989 using the bond-stock earnings yield model which signalled a crash but not its exact moment. We show that it was possible to use the changepoint detection model based solely on price movements for profitable exits of long positions both circa 1990 and in 2013.

Suggested Citation

  • A. N. Shiryaev & M. V. Zhitlukhin & W. T. Ziemba, 2015. "Land and stock bubbles, crashes and exit strategies in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 1449-1469, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:15:y:2015:i:9:p:1449-1469
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2014.989897
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/14697688.2014.989897
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/14697688.2014.989897?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evanoff, Douglas D. & Kaufman, George G. & Malliaris, A. G. (ed.), 2012. "New Perspectives on Asset Price Bubbles," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199844333, Decembrie.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    3. Evanoff, Douglas D. & Kaufman, George G. & Malliaris, A. G. (ed.), 2012. "New Perspectives on Asset Price Bubbles," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199844401, Decembrie.
    4. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert A. Jarrow, 2015. "Asset Price Bubbles," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 201-218, December.
    2. Robert A. Jarrow & Simon S. Kwok, 2021. "Inferring financial bubbles from option data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 1013-1046, November.
    3. Lleo, Sebastien & Ziemba, William, 2017. "A tale of two indexes: predicting equity market downturns in China," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 85131, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2018. "Bubble contagion: Evidence from Japan’s asset price bubble of the 1980-90s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 89-95.
    5. Lleo, Sébastien & Ziemba, William T., 2015. "Some historical perspectives on the Bond-Stock Earnings Yield Model for crash prediction around the world," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 399-425.
    6. Lleo, Sebastien & Zhitlukhin, Mikhail & Ziemba, William, 2021. "Using a mean changing stochastic processes exit-entry model for stock market long-short prediction," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118875, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Savas Dayanik & Semih O Sezer, 2023. "Model Misspecification in Discrete Time Bayesian Online Change Detection," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 1-27, March.
    8. Wu, Xu & Wang, Pei-Yu & Wang, Kun, 2023. "The effect of stabilization fund to rescue stock market based on expected return-capita circulation equation," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2018. "The Evolving Nature of Asset Price Bubbles, Financial Instability and Monetary Policy," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 22(1-2), pages 35-62, March - J.
    3. Bradley Jones, 2015. "Asset Bubbles: Re-thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management," IMF Working Papers 2015/027, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Anastasios Evgenidis & Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2020. "To Lean Or Not To Lean Against An Asset Price Bubble? Empirical Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(4), pages 1958-1976, October.
    5. Shiryaev, Albert N. & Zhitlukhin, Mikhail N. & Ziemba, William T., 2014. "Land and stock bubbles, crashes and exit strategies in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59288, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Issing, Otmar, 2012. "Central banks: Paradise lost," CFS Working Paper Series 2012/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Otmar Issing, 2012. "Central Banks - Paradise Lost," IMES Discussion Paper Series 12-E-10, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    8. Lukáš Pfeifer & Zdeněk Pikhart, 2014. "Vztah finanční a cenové stability v podmínkách ČR [The Relationship of Financial and Price Stability in the Context of the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 49-66.
    9. Otmar Issing, 2012. "Central Banks - Paradise Lost," IMES Discussion Paper Series 12-E-10, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    10. Tölö, Eero, 2019. "Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2019, Bank of Finland.
    11. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "Populism and the economics of globalization," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(1), pages 12-33, June.
    12. Caruso, Alberto & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the Euro Area crisis: This time was different," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 333-355.
    13. Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan & Timothy Sablik, 2020. "Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 20, pages 1-4, January.
    14. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 435-466, December.
    15. repec:ofr:report:12-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 50-55, May.
    17. Claudio Borio, 2013. "On Time, Stocks and Flows: Understanding the Global Macroeconomic Challenges," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 225(1), pages 3-13, August.
    18. Ibrahim Ari & Muammer Koc, 2018. "Sustainable Financing for Sustainable Development: Understanding the Interrelations between Public Investment and Sovereign Debt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-25, October.
    19. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Kyle Handley & Ben Lipsius & Josh Lerner & Javier Miranda, 2021. "The economic effects of private equity buyouts," Jena Economics Research Papers 2021-013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    20. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    21. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:15:y:2015:i:9:p:1449-1469. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RQUF20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.