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To Lean Or Not To Lean Against An Asset Price Bubble? Empirical Evidence

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  • Anastasios Evgenidis
  • Anastasios G. Malliaris

Abstract

Since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009, economists are reconsidering the appropriate role of monetary policy towards equity bubbles. This paper contributes to these deliberations by estimating the response of the stock market to monetary policy tightening by using a Bayesian time‐varying VAR model. By introducing the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio, we propose a method that estimates its fundamental and bubble components. We find that asset prices will initially fall and eventually rise again but without the risk of feeding the bubble. Counterfactual policy experiments provide additional evidence that monetary policy can lean against equity and housing prices. (JEL E50, E52, E58)

Suggested Citation

  • Anastasios Evgenidis & Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2020. "To Lean Or Not To Lean Against An Asset Price Bubble? Empirical Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(4), pages 1958-1976, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:58:y:2020:i:4:p:1958-1976
    DOI: 10.1111/ecin.12915
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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on stock price bubbles," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403075, HAL.
    2. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(1), pages 115-175, February.
    3. Alogoskoufis, George & Malliaris, A.G. & Stengos, Thanasis, 2023. "The scope and methodology of economic and financial asymmetries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/74362fq3f99s299n07e84dlcib is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Anastasios Evgenidis & Anastasios G. Malliaris, 2022. "Monetary policy, financial shocks and economic activity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 429-456, August.
    6. Lleo, Sebastien & Zhitlukhin, Mikhail & Ziemba, William, 2021. "Using a mean changing stochastic processes exit-entry model for stock market long-short prediction," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118875, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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