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Monetary Policy and Asset Mispricing

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  • Beckers, Benjamin
  • Bernoth, Kerstin

Abstract

This paper investigates whether conventional interest rate policy of central banks is a suitable instrument to attenuate excessive mispricing in stocks as suggested by the proponents of a "leaning against the wind" (LATW) monetary policy. For this, we decompose the stock price into a fundamental, a risk premium and a mispricing component. We argue that mispricing can arise for two reasons: (i) from false subjective expectations of investors about future fundamentals and equity premia, and (ii) from the inherent indeterminacy in asset pricing in line with rational bubbles. Employing a partial equilibrium asset pricing model, we show that the response of the excessive stock price component to a monetary policy shock is ambiguous in both the short- and long-run, and depends on the nature of the mispricing. Subsequently, we evaluate the scope for a LATW policy empirically by employing a time-varying parameter VAR with a flexible identification scheme based on impact and long-run restrictions using data for the S&P500 index from 1962Q1 to 2014Q4. We find that a contractionary monetary policy shock in fact lowers stock prices beyond what is implied by the response of their underlying fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Beckers, Benjamin & Bernoth, Kerstin, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Asset Mispricing," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145684, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc16:145684
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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