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An Anatomy of External Shocks in the Andean Region

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  • Carrillo Maldonado, Paul A.
  • Díaz Cassou, Javier

Abstract

This paper applies an agnostic structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach to study the response of four Andean economies (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru) to international shocks. More specifically, we look at the response of gross domestic product, the real exchange rate, fiscal and trade balances, and inflation to global demand, commodity price, monetary and financial shocks. Our results confirm that the Andean region is highly exposed to changes in external conditions, and especially to global demand fluctuations associated with declines in commodity prices. However, despite the similarities that characterize these countries in terms of their income level or their export specialization, we find substantial heterogeneity in the effects of the shocks, which we attribute to differences in the shock-absorbing capacity of their macroeconomic frameworks. This result underlies the need to put in place external buffers to fully exploit the benefits of a greater presence in international markets, be it in the form of exchange rate flexibility, international reserves, or fiscal and monetary space to act countercyclically.

Suggested Citation

  • Carrillo Maldonado, Paul A. & Díaz Cassou, Javier, 2019. "An Anatomy of External Shocks in the Andean Region," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9908, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:9908
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0001949
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    Cited by:

    1. Leonardo Vera & Bryan Perez, 2025. "Dollarization and Growth: An Application of the Synthetic Control Method to the Case of Ecuador," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 11(1), pages 17-37, June.
    2. Camino-Mogro, Segundo & Armijos, Mary, 2020. "The effects of COVID-19 lockdown on Foreign Direct Investment: evidence from Ecuadorian firms," MPRA Paper 104821, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jacho, Domenica & Cruz, Zoe & Carrillo-Maldonado, Paul, 2024. "Effect of terms of trade on the Latin American Labor market," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    4. Camino-Mogro, Segundo, 2020. "Turbulence in startups: Effect of COVID-19 lockdown on creation of new firms and its capital," MPRA Paper 104502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bunce, Alan & Carrillo-Maldonado, Paul, 2023. "Asymmetric effect of the oil price in the ecuadorian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    6. Gabriel Rodríguez & Renato Vassallo, 2022. "Time Evolution of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Pacific Alliance Countries: Empirical Application using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2022-508, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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