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Effect of terms of trade on the Latin American Labor market

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  • Jacho, Domenica
  • Cruz, Zoe
  • Carrillo-Maldonado, Paul

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of terms of trade shocks on the labor market of Latin American countries. We apply the local projections in panel data to estimate the dynamic response of labor variables of 17 sample countries in the period 1980–2019. Our results show that labor indicators respond positively on average in the short term. The labor market, however, deteriorates in the medium term as a consequence of the terms of trade shocks. We also find that the informal rate decreases only in the first year as the ratio to exports–imports prices increases. We identify that the economies with flexible exchange rates, flexible labor rules, and other characteristics mitigate this negative effect of terms of trade in the medium term.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacho, Domenica & Cruz, Zoe & Carrillo-Maldonado, Paul, 2024. "Effect of terms of trade on the Latin American Labor market," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inteco:v:180:y:2024:i:c:s2110701724000751
    DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100552
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terms of trade; Employment; Informality; Local projections; Latin american;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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