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Terms-of-Trade Shocks Are Not All Alike

Author

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  • Federico Di Pace
  • Luciana Juvenal
  • Ivan Petrella

Abstract

Terms of trade are an inaccurate empirical proxy for how fluctuations in international prices affect the economy. To capture the relevance of terms-of-trade fluctuations for the domestic business cycle, the role of export and import prices needs to be analyzed separately. Using a sample of developing economies, we find that the economy's response to a positive export price shock does not mirror the response to a negative import price shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Di Pace & Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2025. "Terms-of-Trade Shocks Are Not All Alike," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 24-64, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:17:y:2025:i:2:p:24-64
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220035
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    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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