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Terms of Trade Shocks and Fiscal Cycles

In: Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks

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  • Graciela L Kaminsky

    (George Washington University)

Abstract

The latest boom in commodity prices fueled concerns about fiscal policies in commodity-exporting countries, with many claiming that it triggered loose fiscal policy and left no funds for a rainy day. This paper examines the links between fiscal policy and terms-of-trade fluctuations using a sample of 74 countries, both developed and developing. It finds evidence that booms in the terms of trade do not necessarily lead to larger government surpluses in developing countries, particularly in emerging markets and especially during capital flow bonanzas. This is not the case in OECD countries, where fiscal policy is of an acyclical nature.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Graciela L Kaminsky, 2010. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Fiscal Cycles," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbaacv:acv2009-14
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    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/confs/2009/pdf/kaminsky.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Ouedraogo, Rasmane & Sourouema, Windemanegda Sandrine, 2018. "Fiscal policy pro-cyclicality in Sub-Saharan African countries: The role of export concentration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 219-229.
    2. Monoj Kumar Majumder & Mala Raghavan & Joaquin Vespignani, 2020. "Commodity price volatility, fiscal balance and real interest rate," CAMA Working Papers 2020-79, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Luis N. Lanteri, 2016. "La política fiscal en economías exportadoras de materias primas. Evidencia para Argentina," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 1, pages 1-1, June.
    4. Leandro Medina, 2016. "The Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Fiscal Aggregates in Latin America," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 502-525, August.
    5. Céspedes, Luis Felipe & Velasco, Andrés, 2014. "Was this time different?: Fiscal policy in commodity republics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 92-106.
    6. Christian von Haldenwang & Maksym Ivanyna, 2017. "Does the political resource curse affect public finance?: The vulnerability of tax revenue in resource-rich countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-7, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Agustín S. Bénétrix & Philip R. Lane, 2015. "Financial Cycles and Fiscal Cycles," Trinity Economics Papers tep0815, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    8. Christian von Haldenwang & Maksym Ivanyna, 2017. "Does the political resource curse affect public finance? The vulnerability of tax revenue in resource-rich countries," WIDER Working Paper Series 007, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodity prices; terms of trade; fiscal policy; capital flows; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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