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Terms of Trade Shocks and Fiscal Cycles

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  • Graciela L. Kaminsky

Abstract

The latest boom in commodity prices fueled concerns about fiscal policies in commodity-exporting countries, with many claiming that it triggered loose fiscal policy and left no funds for a rainy day. This paper examines the links between fiscal policy and terms-of-trade fluctuations using a sample of 74 countries, both developed and developing. It finds evidence that booms in the terms of trade do not necessarily lead to larger government surpluses in developing countries, particularly in emerging markets and especially during capital flow bonanzas. This is not the case in OECD countries, where fiscal policy is of an acyclical nature.

Suggested Citation

  • Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2010. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Fiscal Cycles," NBER Working Papers 15780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15780
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    Cited by:

    1. Céspedes, Luis Felipe & Velasco, Andrés, 2014. "Was this time different?: Fiscal policy in commodity republics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 92-106.
    2. Christian von Haldenwang & Maksym Ivanyna, 2017. "Does the political resource curse affect public finance? The vulnerability of tax revenue in resource-rich countries," WIDER Working Paper Series 007, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. repec:eac:articl:08/15 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Leandro Medina, 2016. "The Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Fiscal Aggregates in Latin America," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 502-525, August.
    5. Agustín S. Bénétrix & Philip R. Lane, 2015. "Financial Cycles and Fiscal Cycles," Trinity Economics Papers tep0815, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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