IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reviec/v17y2009i5p942-960.html

International Reserves and Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Yan Zhou

Abstract

This paper investigates empirically the relationship between the pattern of fiscal policy and the demand for international reserves in developing countries, and how this relationship is associated with political risk and conditional access to global capital markets. It finds evidence that for developing countries with low political risk, countercyclical (procyclical) fiscal policies are associated with higher (lower) international reserve holdings in economic downturns. The relationship is stronger when the countries with low political risk rely heavily on external financing. For developing countries with high political risk, the link between reserves holdings and fiscal policy pattern is not clear‐cut.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan Zhou, 2009. "International Reserves and Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 942-960, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:17:y:2009:i:5:p:942-960
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2008.00803.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2008.00803.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2008.00803.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos Vegh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Aizenman, Joshua & Lee, Yeonho & Rhee, Youngseop, 2007. "International reserves management and capital mobility in a volatile world: Policy considerations and a case study of Korea," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-15, March.
    3. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 2004. "International Reserve Holdings with Sovereign Risk and Costly Tax Collection," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 569-591, July.
    4. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2004. "The US Current Account Deficit and Economic Development: Collateral for a Total Return Swap," NBER Working Papers 10727, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Calderon, Cesar & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2003. "Macroeconomic policies and performance in Latin America," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 895-923, December.
    7. Philip R. Lane & Aaron Tornell, 1999. "The Voracity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 22-46, March.
    8. Alberto Alesina & Filipe R. Campante & Guido Tabellini, 2008. "Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(5), pages 1006-1036, September.
    9. Mr. Vito Tanzi & Mr. Hamid R Davoodi, 1997. "Corruption, Public Investment, and Growth," IMF Working Papers 1997/139, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2003. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 9971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Sudden Stops," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 423-442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Mr. Robert P Flood & Ms. Nancy P. Marion, 2002. "Holding International Reserves in an Era of High Capital Mobility," IMF Working Papers 2002/062, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
    14. Frenkel, Jacob A & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1981. "Optimal International Reserves: A Stochastic Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(362), pages 507-514, June.
    15. Ben-Bassat, Avraham & Gottlieb, Daniel, 1992. "On the Effect of Opportunity Cost on International Reserve Holdings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 329-332, May.
    16. Gavin, Michael & Hausmann, Ricardo & Perotti, Roberto & Talvi, Ernesto, 1996. "Managing Fiscal Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Volatility, Procyclicality, and Limited Creditworthiness," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6089, Inter-American Development Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joshua Aizenman, 2008. "International Reserve Management and the Current Account," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.),Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 11, pages 435-474, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Javid Suleymanli, 2022. "Differences in the Determinants of National Reserves across G7 and Rising Power Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(2), pages 431-443, March.
    3. Yan Zhou, 2010. "The Underlying Link between Fiscal Policy Patterns and International Reserves," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 712-725, November.
    4. Ilkin Aliyev, 2012. "Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in Resource-Rich Countries?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp464, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    5. Margarita Irizepova, 2015. "Historical Evolution of Economic Category “State Financial Reservesâ€," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 103-114.
    6. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2013. "Political, Institutional, and Economic Factors Underlying Deficit Volatility," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 719-732, September.
    7. Osadume Richard C. & Ovuokeroye Edih University, 2021. "External Debt, External Reserves, Debt Service Costs and Economic Growth: Implications for the Nigerian Transport Sector," LOGI – Scientific Journal on Transport and Logistics, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 182-191, January.
    8. Prakash Kumar Shrestha, Ph.D., 2016. "Macroeconomic Impact of International Reserves: Empirical Evidence from South Asia," NRB Working Paper 32/2016, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department.
    9. Margarita Irizepova, 2015. "Methods of State’s Reaction to Risks of State Finances Management," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 129-136.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Scholarly Articles 4723209, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    2. Jalles, João Tovar, 2020. "Social expenditure cyclicality: New time-varying evidence in developing economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(3).
    3. Leandro Medina, 2010. "The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2010/192, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Lesson from the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(3), pages 407-430, September.
    5. Jean-Louis COMBES & Rasmané OUEDRAOGO, 2014. "Does Pro-cyclical Aid Lead to Pro-cyclical Fiscal Policy? An Empirical Analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 201424, CERDI.
    6. Abbott, Andrew & Jones, Philip, 2021. "Government response to increased demand for public services: The cyclicality of government health expenditures in the OECD," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Jalles, João Tovar, 2020. "The volatility impact of social expenditure’s cyclicality in advanced economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 26-40.
    8. Jeffrey Frankel, 2013. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 9, pages 323-391, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in forecasts by official budget agencies and its implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(4), pages 536-562.
    10. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "How Can Commodity Exporters Make Fiscal and Monetary Policy Less Procyclical?," Scholarly Articles 4735392, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    11. Jalles, João Tovar, 2021. "Dynamics of government spending cyclicality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 411-427.
    12. João T. Jalles, 2022. "Do credit rating agencies reward fiscal prudence?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 2-22, April.
    13. Aurel IANCU & Dan Constantin OLTEANU, 2022. "Procyclical and Countercyclical Fiscal Policies in Non-Euro EU Member Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 188-205, October.
    14. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
    15. Asif Ahmad & Richard McManus & F. Gulcin Ozkan, 2021. "Fiscal space and the procyclicality of fiscal policy: The case for making hay while the sun shines," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(4), pages 1687-1701, October.
    16. Dongwon Lee, 2023. "International cooperation in foreign reserve policies in the presence of competitive hoarding," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 389-412, May.
    17. Sula, Ozan, 2008. "Demand for International Reserves: A Quantile Regression Approach," MPRA Paper 11680, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Jeffrey Frankel, 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Growth Lab Working Papers 36, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    19. Enrique Alberola & Manuel Montero, 2006. "Debt Sustainability and Procyclical Fiscal Policies in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2006), pages 157-193.
    20. Ardanaz, Martín & Izquierdo, Alejandro, 2022. "Current expenditure upswings in good times and public investment downswings in bad times? New evidence from developing countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 118-134.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:17:y:2009:i:5:p:942-960. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.