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Demand for International Reserves: A Quantile Regression Approach

  • Sula, Ozan

I estimate the determinants of the demand for international reserves using quantile regressions. Employing a dataset of 96 developing nations over the period of 1980-1996, I find considerable differences at different points of the conditional distribution of reserves. The ordinary least squares estimates of elasticities that were found to be insignificant in previous studies become statistically significant at various quantiles of the reserve holding distribution. In particular, I find that the coefficients of interest rate differential and volatility of export receipts are significant and have the signs predicted by the traditional reserve models, but only for those nations that hold the highest amount of reserves. In contrast, the flexibility of the exchange rate does not seem to be an important factor for the nations that are located at the tails of the distribution.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11680/1/MPRA_paper_11680.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11680.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11680
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  1. Aizenman, Joshua, 1998. "Buffer stocks and precautionary savings with loss aversion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 931-947, December.
  2. Moshe Buchinsky, 1998. "Recent Advances in Quantile Regression Models: A Practical Guideline for Empirical Research," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(1), pages 88-126.
  3. Grubel, Herbert G, 1971. "The Demand for International Reserves: A Critical Review of the Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 1148-66, December.
  4. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy P., 2003. "International Reserve Holdings with Sovereign Risk and Costly Tax Collection," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt9s7978n1, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  5. Omar Arias & Walter Sosa-Escudero & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Individual heterogeneity in the returns to schooling: instrumental variables quantile regression using twins data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 7-40.
  6. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2003. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 9971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  8. Jaewoo Lee, 2004. "Insurance Value of International Reserves; An Option Pricing Approach," IMF Working Papers 04/175, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Claassen, Emil-Maria, 1975. "Demand for International Reserves and the Optimum Mix and Speed of Adjustment Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 446-53, June.
  10. Ben-Bassat, Avraham & Gottlieb, Daniel, 1992. "Optimal international reserves and sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 345-362, November.
  11. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Marion, Nancy P. & Perry, David, 2007. "Drift control of international reserves," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 3110-3137, September.
  12. Koenker, Roger, 2004. "Quantile regression for longitudinal data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 74-89, October.
  13. Frenkel, Jacob A & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1981. "Optimal International Reserves: A Stochastic Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(362), pages 507-14, June.
  14. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "How Effective are Capital Controls?," NBER Working Papers 7413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
  16. Robert P. Flood & Nancy P. Marion, 2002. "Holding International Reserves in an Era of High Capital Mobility," IMF Working Papers 02/62, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Ben-Bassat, Avraham & Gottlieb, Daniel, 1992. "On the Effect of Opportunity Cost on International Reserve Holdings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 329-32, May.
  18. Kelly, Michael G, 1970. "The Demand for International Reserves," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 655-67, September.
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