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International Reserves Management and Capital Mobility in a Volatile World: Policy Considerations and a Case Study of Korea

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  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Lee, Yeonho
  • Rhee, Yeongseop

Abstract

This paper characterizes the precautionary demand for international reserves driven by the attempt to reduce the incidence of costly output decline induced by sudden reversal of short-term capital flows. It validates the main predictions of the precautionary approach by investigating changes in the patterns of international reserves in Korea in the aftermath of the 1997-8 crisis. This crisis provides an interesting case study, especially because of the rapid rise in Korea’s financial integration in the aftermath of the East- Asian crisis, where foreigners’ shareholding has increased to 40% of total Korean market capitalization. We show that the crisis led to structural change in the hoarding of international reserves, and that the Korean monetary authority gives much greater attention to a broader notion of ‘hot money,’ inclusive of short-term debt and foreigners’ shareholding.

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  • Aizenman, Joshua & Lee, Yeonho & Rhee, Yeongseop, 2004. "International Reserves Management and Capital Mobility in a Volatile World: Policy Considerations and a Case Study of Korea," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt65p8p9qq, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt65p8p9qq
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    2. Winston Moore, 2014. "Managing The Process Of Removing Capital Controls: What Does The Literature Suggest?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 209-237, April.
    3. Marc-André Gosselin & Nicolas Parent, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserves in Emerging Asia," Staff Working Papers 05-38, Bank of Canada.
    4. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
    5. Hee-Ryang Ra, 2008. "Financial Market Volatility and International Reserve Holding Behaviour: A Case Study for Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 311-332.
    6. Uz Akdogan, Idil, 2020. "Understanding the dynamics of foreign reserve management: The central bank intervention policy and the exchange rate fundamentals," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 41-55.
    7. Rogerio Andrade & Daniela Prates, 2013. "Exchange rate dynamics in a peripheral monetary economy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 399-416.
    8. Naveen Srinivasan & Vidya Mahambare & M. Ramachandran, 2015. "Capital Controls, Exchange Market Intervention and International Reserve Accumulation in India," Working Papers 2015-103, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    9. Herrmann, Sabine & Winkler, Adalbert, 2009. "Real convergence, financial markets, and the current account - Emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 100-123, August.
    10. Wong, Clement Yuk-pang & Cheung, Yin-Wong, 2008. "Are All Measures of International Reserves Created Equal? An Empirical Comparison of International Reserve Ratios," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-61.
    11. Mr. Joshua Aizenman & Mr. Jaewoo Lee, 2005. "International Reserves: Precautionary vs. Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2005/198, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Giulio Cifarelli & Giovanna Paladino, 2009. "The Buffer Stock Model Redux? An Analysis of the Dynamics of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 525-543, September.
    13. Daniela Magalhães Prates & Luiz Fernanda De Paula & Barbara Fritz, 2016. "Keynes At The Periphery: Currency Hierarchy And Challenges For Economic Policy In Emerging Economies," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 110, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    14. Li, Jie & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2006. "Can High Reserves Offset Weak Fundamentals? A Simple Model of Precautionary Demand for Reserves," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 59(3), pages 317-328.
    15. Eifert, Benn & Gelb, Alan, 2008. "Reforming Aid: Toward More Predictable, Performance-Based Financing for Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2067-2081, October.
    16. Miss Nkunde Mwase, 2012. "How much should I hold? Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands," IMF Working Papers 2012/205, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Giulio Cifarelli & Giovanna Paladino, 2008. "Reserve overstocking in a highly integrated world. New evidence from Asia and Latin America," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 315-336.
    18. Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 1-80.

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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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