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The surprising instability of export specializations

Author

Listed:
  • Diego Daruich

    (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

  • William Easterly

    (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, NYU - New York University [New York] - NYU - NYU System)

  • Ariell Reshef

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We study the instability of hyper-specialization of exports at the 4-digit level in 1998–2010. (1) Specializations are surprisingly un-stable. Export ranks are not persistent, and new top products and destinations replace old ones. Measurement error is unlikely to be the main or only determinant of this pattern. (2) Source country factors are not the main explanation of this instability. Only 16–20% of variation in export growth is accounted for by source country plus source country-product factors that do not vary across destinations. The high share of idiosyncratic variance (source-product-destination residual) of 41–55%, indicates the difficulty to predict export success using source country characteristics. While we are cautious in interpreting factors that are jointly determined in global general equilibrium, our results suggest that destination and product-specific factors importantly matter at least as much as source country factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego Daruich & William Easterly & Ariell Reshef, 2019. "The surprising instability of export specializations," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-02875089, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-02875089
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.10.009
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    Cited by:

    1. Hua Zhou & Jiachen Fan & Xue Yang & Kaifeng Duan, 2023. "Food Export Stability, Political Ties, and Land Resources," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Peter Mihalyi, 2017. "Learning, as a wonder weapon of endogenous growth?," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1727, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    3. Flechtner, Svenja & Middelanis, Martin, 2024. "The role of the commodity price boom in shaping public social spending: Evidence from Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    4. Mora, Jesse & Olabisi, Michael, 2023. "Economic development and export diversification: The role of trade costs," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 102-118.
    5. Romaric Coulibaly & Heddie Moreno & Akiko Suwa‐Eisenmann & Nouhoum Traore, 2023. "African firms in global value chains: What can we learn from firm‐level data in Cameroon and Côte d'Ivoire?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(11), pages 3301-3324, November.
    6. Regolo, Julie, 2017. "Manufacturing export diversification and regionalization of trade: Which destinations for newly exported goods?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 26-47.
    7. Marlene Amstad & Beatrice Weder di Mauro, 2017. "Long-run effects of exchange rate appreciation: Another puzzle?," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 68(01), pages 63-82, December.
    8. Hua Zhou & Jiachen Fan, 2023. "Export structure, import demand elasticity and export stability," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 758-790, March.
    9. Dingel, Jonathan & Tintelnot, Felix, 2020. "Spatial Economics for Granular Settings," CEPR Discussion Papers 14819, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. William R Kerr, 2018. "Heterogeneous Technology Diffusion and Ricardian Trade Patterns," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(1), pages 163-182.
    11. Jaud, Melise & Cadot, Olivier & Disdier, Anne-Célia & Suwa-Eisenmann, Akiko, 2024. "Big hits in export growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    12. Alongkorn Tanasritunyakul, 2023. "Export survival for Thailand after the COVID-19 pandemic," Discussion Papers 20230809, Thammasat University, Faculty of Economics, revised Oct 2023.
    13. Lili Huang & Qingyi Gao & Jiachen Fan & Jingwen Zhu & Zhenmu Hong, 2024. "Export stability and adolescent fertility rate," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 1675-1706, April.
    14. Federico Di Pace & Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2025. "Terms-of-Trade Shocks Are Not All Alike," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 24-64, April.
    15. Simona Comi & Mara Grasseni & Laura Resmini, 2024. "Global shocks and the dynamics of EU countries' specialisation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(8), pages 3394-3420, August.
    16. Juan de Lucio & Raúl Mínguez & Asier Minondo & Francisco Requena, 2018. "How top exporters compete? Evidence from Spain," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 55-61.
    17. Asier Minondo, 2020. "Export revenue and quality: Firm‐level evidence from developing countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 471-484, May.
    18. Zhang, Chaoshuai & Qiu, Peng & Zhang, Liang & Hong, Xiaoyu & Wang, Dingqing, 2024. "The impact of digital transformation on enterprises' export stability: Evidence from listed companies in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    19. Hua Zhou & Lun Yang & Yijia Wang & Jiachen Fan, 2025. "Bilateral political ties and the stability of services exports," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 85-113, January.
    20. Bolhuis, Marijn, 2019. "Catch-Up Growth and Inter-Industry Productivity Spillovers," MPRA Paper 94730, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Fernando Garc?a-Quero, 2024. "Ra?l Prebisch?s Influence on Contemporary Development Studies: A Review of Recent Literature (2010-2021)," HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT AND POLICY, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2024(2), pages 5-36.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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