IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tha/wpaper/20230809.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Export survival for Thailand after the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Alongkorn Tanasritunyakul

    (Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University)

Abstract

This paper investigates trend and pattern of export survival in Thailand compared to its competitors in the region during the period of 2000-2020. We found that Thailand has high export survival for total merchandise and its product subcategories and has high level of export diversification. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic did not cause significantly export failure for the main exporting market of Thailand. In the econometrics results, economic size of bilateral partnerships, average exports, GPNs products, FTAs, and good business environment can reduce hazard rate of exports. Relating to policy implications, government should improve business environment, especially trade facilitation, for supporting higher export survival in Thailand. Also, doing export diversification is a choice of reducing export failures. However, the decision of doing export diversification should be done by exporters, not government, because government cannot bear the risk of export failure from doing export diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • Alongkorn Tanasritunyakul, 2023. "Export survival for Thailand after the COVID-19 pandemic," Discussion Papers 20230809, Thammasat University, Faculty of Economics, revised Oct 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:tha:wpaper:20230809
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econ.tu.ac.th/uploads/discussion_paper/file/20230809/adirstuyz378.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2023
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Céline Carrère & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn, 2017. "Export survival and the dynamics of experience," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(2), pages 271-300, May.
    2. Besedes, Tibor & Prusa, Thomas J., 2006. "Product differentiation and duration of US import trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 339-358, December.
    3. Tosapol Apaitan & Piti Disyatat & Krislert Samphantharak, 2019. "Dissecting Thailand's International Trade: Evidence from 88 Million Export and Import Entries," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 36(1), pages 20-53, March.
    4. Tibor Besedeš & Thomas J. Prusa, 2006. "Ins, outs, and the duration of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 266-295, February.
    5. David Córcoles & Carmen Díaz-Mora & Rosario Gandoy, 2015. "Export Survival in Global Production Chains," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(10), pages 1526-1554, October.
    6. Prema‐chandra Athukorala, 2019. "Joining Global Production Networks: Experience and Prospects of India," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 14(1), pages 123-143, January.
    7. Daruich, Diego & Easterly, William & Reshef, Ariell, 2019. "The surprising instability of export specializations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 36-65.
    8. Albornoz, Facundo & Calvo Pardo, Héctor F. & Corcos, Gregory & Ornelas, Emanuel, 2012. "Sequential exporting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 17-31.
    9. Obashi, Ayako, 2010. "Stability of production networks in East Asia: Duration and survival of trade," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 21-30, January.
    10. Albornoz, Facundo & Fanelli, Sebastián & Hallak, Juan Carlos, 2016. "Survival in export markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 262-281.
    11. Özler, Sule & Taymaz, Erol & YIlmaz, Kamil, 2009. "History Matters for the Export Decision: Plant-Level Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 479-488, February.
    12. Paul Brenton & Christian Saborowski & Erik von Uexkull, 2014. "What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: INTERNATIONAL TRADE, DISTRIBUTION AND DEVELOPMENT Empirical Studies of Trade Policies, chapter 17, pages 347-372, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Rauch, James E. & Watson, Joel, 2003. "Starting small in an unfamiliar environment," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1021-1042, September.
    14. Roberto Alvarez & Ricardo A. López, 2008. "Entry and Exit in International Markets: Evidence from Chilean Data," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 692-708, September.
    15. Baldwin, John R. Bian, Lin Dupuy, Richard Gellatly, Guy, 2000. "Failure Rates for New Canadian Firms: New Perspectives on Entry and Exit," Failure Rates for New Canadian Firms: New Perspectives on Entry and Exit, Statistics Canada, Economic Analysis Division, number stcb5e, March.
    16. Archanun Kohpaiboon & Juthathip Jongwanich, 2021. "The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Production Sharing in East Asia," Working Papers DP-2021-03, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    17. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2004. "Why Some Firms Export," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 561-569, May.
    18. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June.
    19. Besedes, Tibor & Prusa, Thomas J., 2011. "The role of extensive and intensive margins and export growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 371-379, November.
    20. Juthathip Jongwanich, 2020. "Export diversification, margins and economic growth at industrial level: Evidence from Thailand," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(10), pages 2674-2722, October.
    21. Diego Daruich & William Easterly & Ariell Reshef, 2019. "The surprising instability of export specializations," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02875089, HAL.
    22. Dahai Fu & Yanrui Wu, 2014. "Export survival pattern and its determinants: an empirical study of Chinese manufacturing firms," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 28(1), pages 161-177, May.
    23. Facundo Albornoz & Hector Calvo-Pardo & Gregory Corcos & Emanuel Ornelas, 2012. "Sequential exporting: how firms break into foreign markets," CentrePiece - The magazine for economic performance 364, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    24. Silviano Pérez & Amparo Llopis & Juan Llopis, 2004. "The Determinants of Survival of Spanish Manufacturing Firms," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 25(3), pages 251-273, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pişkin, Erhan, 2017. "Türkiye İhracatının Ölüm-Kalım Meselesi [The Matter of Survival for Turkish Exports]," MPRA Paper 81459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Margalida Murillo & Cindy Paola Leal, 2021. "Tratados de Libre Comercio y duración de las exportaciones: Evidencia a nivel de firma para Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 88(6), pages 201-238, July.
    3. Strauss-Kahn, Vanessa & Carrère, Céline, 2014. "Developing Countries Exports Survival in the OECD: Does Experience Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10059, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Céline Carrère & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn, 2017. "Export survival and the dynamics of experience," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(2), pages 271-300, May.
    5. Cadot, Olivier & Iacovone, Leonardo & Pierola, Martha Denisse & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2013. "Success and failure of African exporters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 284-296.
    6. Ricardo Arguello & Andres Garcia-Suaza & Daniel Valderrama, 2020. "Exporters’ agglomeration and the survival of export flows: empirical evidence from Colombia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(3), pages 703-729, August.
    7. David Córcoles & Carmen Díaz-Mora & Rosario Gandoy, 2015. "Export Survival in Global Production Chains," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(10), pages 1526-1554, October.
    8. Mélise Jaud & Madina Kukenova & Martin Strieborny, 2009. "Financial dependence and intensive margin of trade," PSE Working Papers halshs-00575005, HAL.
    9. Córcoles, David & Díaz-Mora, Carmen & Gandoy, Rosario, 2014. "Product sophistication: A tie that binds partners in international trade," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(S1), pages 33-41.
    10. Črt Kostevc & Katja Zajc Kejžar, 2020. "Firm‐level export duration: The importance of market‐specific ownership linkages," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 1277-1308, May.
    11. Majune Kraido Socrates & Eliud Moyi & Kamau Gathiaka, 2020. "Explaining Export Duration in Kenya," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 204-224, June.
    12. Silviano Esteve‐Pérez, 2021. "Previous experience, experimentation and export survival: Evidence from firm‐product‐destination level data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(9), pages 2638-2682, September.
    13. Siim Rahu, 2015. "The Role Of Uncertainty For Export Survival: Evidence From Estonia," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 97, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    14. David Córcoles & Carmen Díaz-Mora & Rosario Gandoy, 2013. "Product sophistication: A tie that binds partners in international production sharing," Working Papers 13-03, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    15. Yang, Bixuan & Asche, Frank & Anderson, James L., 2019. "Trade dynamics and duration of Chinese food imports," 2019 Annual Meeting, July 21-23, Atlanta, Georgia 291085, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Jesse Mora, 2023. "Export failure and its consequences: evidence from Colombian exporters," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(3), pages 697-755, August.
    17. Wolfgang Hess & Maria Persson, 2011. "Exploring the duration of EU imports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(4), pages 665-692, November.
    18. Karel Malec & Socrates Kraido Majune & Elena Kuzmenko & Joseph Phiri & Rahab Liz Masese Nyamoita & Seth Nana Kwame Appiah-Kubi & Mansoor Maitah & Luboš Smutka & Zdeňka Gebeltová & Karel Tomšík & Sylvi, 2023. "Energy Logistic Regression and Survival Model: Case Study of Russian Exports," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-14, January.
    19. Luis Felipe Beltrán Morales, 2022. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Export Survival from Latin American Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-16, July.
    20. Asche, Frank & Cojocaru, Andreea L. & Gaasland, Ivar & Straume, Hans-Martin, 2018. "Cod stories: Trade dynamics and duration for Norwegian cod exports," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 71-79.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export Survival; International Trade; COVID-19 pandemic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tha:wpaper:20230809. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chompoo Thongchai (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fectuth.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.