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Stability of Production Networks in East Asia: Duration and Survival of Trade

  • Ayako OBASHI


    (Faculty of Economics, Keio University, Japan)

This paper sheds light on the stability of international production networks in East Asia from the perspective of the duration and survival of bilateral trade relationships at the product-line level. Using highly disaggregated data for intra-East Asian machinery trade, survival analysis is conducted as well as the examinations of the duration and volatility of trade relationships. The product-level analyses reveal that, compared to machinery finished products, machinery parts & components are traded through longer-lived and more stable relationships among East Asian countries. Once transactions are started, trade relationships of machinery parts & components are more likely to be maintained between countries even at a long distance, regardless of the exchange-rate fluctuations. The probability of discontinuing trade relationships of machinery finished products, on the other hand, are more likely to be sensitive to the level of trading cost as well as the exchange-rate fluctuations.

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Paper provided by Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) in its series Working Papers with number d006.

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Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:era:wpaper:d006
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  1. Sven Arndt, 2002. "Production Sharing and Regional Integration," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2002-10, Claremont Colleges.
  2. Volker Nitsch, 2007. "Die Another Day: Duration in German Import Trade," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_037, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  3. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 2002. "Managerial Incentives and the International Organization of Production," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1987, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Mitsuyo Ando & Fukunari Kimura, 2005. "The Formation of International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia," NBER Chapters, in: International Trade in East Asia, NBER-East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 14, pages 177-216 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Nobuaki Yamashita, 2005. "Production Fragmentation and Trade Integration: East Asia in a Global Context," Departmental Working Papers 2005-07, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  6. Tibor Besedes & Thomas Prusa, 2006. "Ins, outs, and the duration of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 266-295, February.
  7. Fukao, Kyoji & Ishido, Hikari & Ito, Keiko, 2003. "Vertical intra-industry trade and foreign direct investment in East Asia," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 468-506, December.
  8. Fukunari KIMURA, 2006. "International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia: Eighteen Facts, Mechanics, and Policy Implications," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(2), pages 326-344.
  9. Arndt, Sven W. & Kierzkowski, Henryk (ed.), 2001. "Fragmentation: New Production Patterns in the World Economy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199243310, July.
  10. Deardorff, A.V., 1998. "Fragmentation in Simple Trade Models," Papers 98-11, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  11. Kimura, Fukunari & Ando, Mitsuyo, 2005. "Two-dimensional fragmentation in East Asia: Conceptual framework and empirics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 317-348.
  12. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 2002. "Integration versus Outsourcing in Industry Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(1), pages 85-120.
  13. Besedes, Tibor & Prusa, Thomas J., 2006. "Product differentiation and duration of US import trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 339-358, December.
  14. Tibor BesedeŇ°, 2008. "A Search Cost Perspective on Formation and Duration of Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 835-849, November.
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