IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed015/182.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Nicolini

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

  • Constantino Hevia

    (Universidad Di Tella)

  • Joao Ayres

    (University of Minnesota)

Abstract

We show that a small number of commodities prices can explain alarge fraction of the volatility in bilateral real exchange rates between developed economies. We analyze the real exchange rates between the United Sates and Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom. We show that with up to six commodites we can explain between 50% and 80% of the volatility of those three real exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Nicolini & Constantino Hevia & Joao Ayres, 2015. "Real Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices," 2015 Meeting Papers 182, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed015:182
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2015/paper_182.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Crucini, Mario J. & Landry, Anthony, 2019. "Accounting for real exchange rates using micro-data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 86-100.
    2. Betts, Caroline M. & Kehoe, Timothy J., 2006. "U.S. real exchange rate fluctuations and relative price fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1297-1326, October.
    3. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "The Dollar and the Policy Mix: 1985," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(1), pages 117-197.
    4. Charles Engel, 1999. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 507-538, June.
    5. Ayres, Joao & Hevia, Constantino & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2020. "Real exchange rates and primary commodity prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    6. Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1145-1194.
    7. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 804-819, October.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth S. Rogoff (ed.), 2001. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262523140, December.
    9. Jeffrey Sachs, 1985. "The Dollar and the Policy Mix: 1985," NBER Working Papers 1636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Policy and Performance Links between LDC Debtors and Industrial Nations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 303-368.
    11. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
    12. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000. "Oil prices and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
    14. Burstein, Ariel T. & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 2003. "Distribution costs and real exchange rate dynamics during exchange-rate-based stabilizations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1214, September.
    15. Constantino Hevia & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2013. "Optimal Devaluations," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 22-51, April.
    16. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "Editorial in "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 1-4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2021. "Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(8), pages 2183-2232.
    18. Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel & Neiman, Brent, 2016. "Obstfeld and Rogoff׳s international macro puzzles: a quantitative assessment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 5-23.
    19. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
    20. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    21. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
    22. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    23. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    24. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 804-819, October.
    25. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
    26. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    27. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern01-1.
    28. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Inflation, Exchange Rates and Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 1739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joao Ayres & Constantino Hevia & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2021. "Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices: Mussa Meets Backus-Smith," Working Papers 89, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    2. Ayres, Joao & Hevia, Constantino & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2020. "Real exchange rates and primary commodity prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. Bondatti, Massimiliano & Rillo, Giovanni, 2022. "Commodity tail-risk and exchange rates," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    4. Luciana Juvenal, 2020. "Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike," IMF Working Papers 2020/280, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2021. "Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(8), pages 2183-2232.
    6. Afees A. Salisu & Wasiu Adekunle & Zachariah Emmanuel & Wasiu A. Alimi, 2018. "Predicting exchange rate with commodity prices: The role of structural breaks and asymmetries," Working Papers 055, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    7. González-Rozada, Martín & Ruffo, Hernán, 2024. "Do trade agreements contribute to the decline in labor share? Evidence from Latin American countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    8. Yépez, Carlos & Dzikpe, Francis, 2022. "Accounting for real exchange rates in emerging economies: The role of commodity prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 476-492.
    9. Song, Lu & Tian, Gengyu & Jiang, Yonghong, 2022. "Connectedness of commodity, exchange rate and categorical economic policy uncertainties — Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Adediran, Idris & Salisu, Afees & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E, 2020. "To “ECO” or not to “ECO”? Evidence for the single currency agenda of ECOWAS," MPRA Paper 109680, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Yıldırım, Durmuş Çağrı & Erdoğan, Fatma & Tarı, Elif Nur, 2022. "Time-varying volatility spillovers between real exchange rate and real commodity prices for emerging market economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    12. Carlos Esquivel & Timothy J. Kehoe & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2020. "Lessons from the Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America," Staff Report 608, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    13. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2020. "Commodity terms of trade shocks and real effective exchange rate dynamics in Africa's commodity-exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Wang, Wenhao & Cheung, Yin-Wong, 2023. "Commodity price effects on currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    15. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Trabelsi, Nader & Wohar, Mark, 2024. "Do shipping freight markets impact commodity markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 986-1014.
    16. Andrés García-Mirantes & Beatriz Larraz & Javier Población, 2020. "A Proposal to Fix the Number of Factors on Modeling the Dynamics of Futures Contracts on Commodity Prices," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-13, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joao Ayres & Constantino Hevia & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2019. "A Quantitative Analysis of Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices," 2019 Meeting Papers 1144, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Joao Ayres & Constantino Hevia & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2021. "Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices: Mussa Meets Backus-Smith," Working Papers 89, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    3. Maggiori, Matteo, 2021. "International Macroeconomics With Imperfect Financial Markets," SocArXiv z8g6r, Center for Open Science.
    4. Oleg Itskhoki, 2021. "The Story of the Real Exchange Rate," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 423-455, August.
    5. Burstein, Ariel & Gopinath, Gita, 2014. "International Prices and Exchange Rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 391-451, Elsevier.
    6. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2014. "Assessing International Efficiency," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 523-584, Elsevier.
    7. Andrew Atkeson & Ariel Burstein, 2008. "Pricing-to-Market, Trade Costs, and International Relative Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1998-2031, December.
    8. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2005. "A macroeconomic model of international price discrimination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 129-155, September.
    9. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    10. Michael Fidora & Claire Giordano & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 71-107, February.
    11. Oleg Itskhoki & Dmitry Mukhin, 2021. "Exchange Rate Disconnect in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(8), pages 2183-2232.
    12. Candian, Giacomo, 2019. "Information frictions and real exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 189-205.
    13. Charles Engel, 2003. "Expenditure Switching and Exchange-Rate Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 231-300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Hai Long Vo & Duc Hong Vo, 2023. "The purchasing power parity and exchange‐rate economics half a century on," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 446-479, April.
    15. Lee E. Ohanian & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria & Mark L. J. Wright, 2018. "Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Postwar Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3541-3582, December.
    16. Bathia, Deven & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2021. "Unemployment fluctuations and currency returns in the United Kingdom: Evidence from over one and a half century of data," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    17. Crucini, Mario J. & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2008. "Persistence in law of one price deviations: Evidence from micro-data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 629-644, April.
    18. Magali Dauvin, 2013. "Energy prices and the real exchange rate of commodity-exporting countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-33, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    19. Stefan RIED, 2010. "New Keynesian Open Economy Models versus the Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics," EcoMod2004 330600119, EcoMod.
    20. Constantino Hevia & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Dutch Disease: The Case of Price and Wage Rigidity," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Caputo & Roberto Chang (ed.),Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Policy, edition 1, volume 22, chapter 3, pages 051-089, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed015:182. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.