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A Quantitative Analysis of Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Joao Ayres

    (Inter-American Development Bank)

  • Constantino Hevia

    (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella)

  • Juan Pablo Nicolini

    (Minneapolis Fed)

Abstract

In this paper, we show that a substantial fraction of the volatility of real exchange rates between developed economies such as Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom against the US dollar can be accounted for by shocks that affect the prices of primary commodities such as oil, aluminum, maize, or copper. Our analysis implies that existing models used to analyze real exchange rates between large economies that mostly focus on trade between differentiated final goods could benefit, in terms of matching the behavior of real exchange rates, by also considering trade in primary commodities.

Suggested Citation

  • Joao Ayres & Constantino Hevia & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2019. "A Quantitative Analysis of Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices," 2019 Meeting Papers 1144, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed019:1144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Adediran, Idris & Salisu, Afees & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E, 2020. "To “ECO” or not to “ECO”? Evidence for the single currency agenda of ECOWAS," MPRA Paper 109680, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Yıldırım, Durmuş Çağrı & Erdoğan, Fatma & Tarı, Elif Nur, 2022. "Time-varying volatility spillovers between real exchange rate and real commodity prices for emerging market economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2020. "Commodity terms of trade shocks and real effective exchange rate dynamics in Africa's commodity-exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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