IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/4926.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal devaluations

Author

Listed:
  • Hevia, Constantino
  • Nicolini, Juan Pablo

Abstract

According to the conventional wisdom, when an economy enters a recession and nominal prices adjust slowly, the monetary authority should devalue the domestic currency to make the recession less severe. The reason is that a devaluation of the currency lowers the relative price of non-tradable goods, and this reduces the necessary adjustment in output relative to the case in which the exchange rate remains constant. This paper uses a simple small open economy model with sticky prices to characterize optimal fiscal and monetary policy in response to productivity and terms of trade shocks. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, in this framework optimal exchange rate policy cannot be characterized just by the cyclical properties of output. The source of the shock matters: while recessions induced by a drop in the price of exportable goods call for a devaluation of the currency, those induced by a drop in productivity in the non-tradable sector require a revaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Hevia, Constantino & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2009. "Optimal devaluations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4926, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4926
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2009/05/11/000158349_20090511090457/Rendered/PDF/WPS4926.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
    2. Ester Faia & Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Ramsey monetary policy and international relative prices," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Emmanuel Farhi & Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki, 2014. "Fiscal Devaluations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 81(2), pages 725-760.
    4. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999. "Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 57-126 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Chari, V. V. & Christiano, Lawrence J. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 1996. "Optimality of the Friedman rule in economies with distorting taxes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 203-223, April.
    6. Isabel Correia & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2008. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Equivalence Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(1), pages 141-170, February.
    7. Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 1999. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 26, pages 1671-1745 Elsevier.
    8. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 1998. "Price-level and interest-rate targeting in a model with sticky prices," Working Paper 9819, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    9. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo, 2005. "International dimensions of optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 281-305, March.
    10. Ester Faia & Tommaso Monacelli, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Home Bias," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 721-750, June.
    11. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 1997. "The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, March.
    14. Bernardino Adão & Isabel Correia & Pedro Teles, 2003. "Gaps and Triangles," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 699-713.
    15. -, 2005. "CEPAL Review no.87," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    16. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February.
    17. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1997. "Sticky price and limited participation models of money: A comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1201-1249, June.
    18. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    19. De Paoli, Bianca, 2009. "Monetary policy and welfare in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 11-22, February.
    20. Bernheim, B Douglas, 1991. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Some Recent Results," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 540-542, August.
    21. Engel, Charles, 2001. "Optimal Exchange Rate Policy: The Influence of Price Setting and Asset Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 518-541, May.
    22. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    23. Chari, V V & Christiano, Lawrence J & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1991. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Some Recent Results," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 519-539, August.
    24. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    25. -, 2005. "Revista de la CEPAL no.87," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    26. -, 2005. "CEPAL Review no.85," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    27. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
    28. Ireland, Peter N, 1996. "The Role of Countercyclical Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 704-723, August.
    29. Pedro Teles & Bernardino Adao & Isabel Correia, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regimes," 2005 Meeting Papers 382, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    30. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2003. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange-Rate Flexibility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 765-783.
    31. S. Rao Aiyagari & R. Anton Braun, 1996. "Some explorations into optimal cyclical monetary policy," Working Papers 565, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    32. -, 2005. "Revista de la CEPAL no.86," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    33. Duarte, Margarida & Obstfeld, Maurice, 2008. "Monetary policy in the open economy revisited: The case for exchange-rate flexibility restored," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 949-957, October.
    34. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
    35. -, 2005. "Revista de la CEPAL no.85," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    36. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 1995. "Interest rate rules vs. money growth rules a welfare comparison in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 247-267, November.
    37. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2011. "Are Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities Consistent? A Review of Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 471-475, May.
    38. Ferrero, Andrea, 2009. "Fiscal and monetary rules for a currency union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 1-10, February.
    39. Constantino Hevia & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2013. "Optimal Devaluations," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 22-51, April.
    40. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Stokey, Nancy L, 1987. "Money and Interest in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 491-513, May.
    41. -, 2005. "Notas de Población Vol.32 N° 80," Notas de Población, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), vol. 32, October.
    42. Bernardino Adão & Isabel Horta Correia & Pedro Teles, 2006. "On the Relevance of Exchange Rate Regimes for Stabilization Policy," Working Papers w200616, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    43. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2003. "Price Stability in Open Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 743-764.
    44. -, 2005. "CEPAL Review no.86," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    45. Isabel Correia & Bernardino Adao, 2005. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Open Economies," 2005 Meeting Papers 923, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    46. Diamond, Peter A & Mirrlees, James A, 1971. "Optimal Taxation and Public Production II: Tax Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(3), pages 261-278, June.
    47. Bernardino Adao, 2000. "Gaps and Triangles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1904, Econometric Society.
    48. Lucas, Robert E., 1984. "Money in a theory of finance," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 9-46, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Emmanuel Farhi & Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki, 2014. "Fiscal Devaluations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 81(2), pages 725-760.
    2. repec:eee:eecrev:v:101:y:2018:i:c:p:157-180 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2012. "Is Monetary Policy in an Open Economy Fundamentally Different?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9087, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Tommaso Monacelli, 2013. "Is Monetary Policy in an Open Economy Fundamentally Different?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 6-21, April.
    5. Constantino Hevia & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Dutch Disease: The Case of Price and Wage Rigidity," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Rodrigo Caputo & Roberto Chang (ed.), Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Policy, edition 1, volume 22, chapter 3, pages 051-089 Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Drago Bergholt, 2014. "Monetary Policy in Oil Exporting Economies," Working Papers No 5/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    7. Andrea Ferrero & Martin Seneca, 2015. "Notes on the Underground: Monetary Policy in Resource-Rich Economies," Working Paper 2015/02, Norges Bank.
    8. Constantino Hevia & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2013. "Optimal Devaluations," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 22-51, April.
    9. Jacek Rothert, 2012. "Productivity or Demand? Identifying Sources of Fluctuations in Small Open Economies," 2012 Meeting Papers 187, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. De Paoli, Bianca, 2009. "Monetary policy and welfare in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 11-22, February.
    11. Bernardino Adão & Isabel Horta Correia & Pedro Teles, 2006. "On the Relevance of Exchange Rate Regimes for Stabilization Policy," Working Papers w200616, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Luis Catão & Roberto Chang, 2013. "Monetary Rules for Commodity Traders," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 52-91, April.
    13. Adao, Bernardino & Correia, Isabel & Teles, Pedro, 2009. "On the relevance of exchange rate regimes for stabilization policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(4), pages 1468-1488, July.
    14. Dmitriev, Mikhail & Hoddenbagh, Jonathan, 2012. "Price Stability In Small Open Economies," MPRA Paper 46118, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2013.
    15. Drago Bergholt & Vegard H Larsen & Martin Seneca, 2017. "Business cycles in an oil economy," BIS Working Papers 618, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Markus Kirchner & Julio Carrillo & Diego Rodríguez & Fernando Perez & Rocío Gondo & Carlos Montoro & Roberto Chang, 2017. "Financial and real shocks and the effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies in Latin American countries," BIS Working Papers 668, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Theory&Research; Debt Markets; Emerging Markets; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Economic Stabilization;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4926. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.