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Natural Resources and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies: A Curse and a Blessing

Author

Listed:
  • Franz Hamann

    (Banco de la Republica)

  • Juan Camilo Mendez-Vizcaino

    (Banco de la Republica)

  • Enrique G. Mendoza

    (University of Pennsylvania and NBER)

  • Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria

    (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Abstract

Emerging economies that are large oil producers have sizable external debt, their country risk rises when oil prices fall, and several of them have defaulted at least once since 1979. Moreover, while oil and non-oil output reduce country risk on impact and in the long-run, oil reserves reduce it marginally on impact but increase it in the long-run. We propose a model of sovereign default and oil extraction consistent with these observations. The sovereign manages oil reserves strategically to make default less painful by altering the value of autarky, and hence its sustainable debt falls. All else equal, default is less likely in states in which reserves or oil prices are higher, or non-oil GDP is lower, but the equilibrium dynamics of reserves and country risk in response to oil-price shocks switch from negatively correlated on impact to positively correlated for several years.

Suggested Citation

  • Franz Hamann & Juan Camilo Mendez-Vizcaino & Enrique G. Mendoza & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, 2023. "Natural Resources and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies: A Curse and a Blessing," PIER Working Paper Archive 23-004, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:23-004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tamon Asonuma & Hyungseok Joo, 2023. "Sovereign Defaults and Debt Restructurings: Public Capital and Fiscal Constraint Tightness," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0323, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    2. Galego Mendes,Arthur & Pennings,Steven Michael, 2020. "One Rule Fits All ? Heterogeneous Fiscal Rules for Commodity Exporters When Price Shocks Can BePersistent: Theory and Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9400, The World Bank.
    3. Tamon Asonuma & Hyungseok Joo, 2021. "Public Capital and Fiscal Constraint in Sovereign Debt Crises," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0621, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    4. Cheuathonghua, Massaporn & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Pavlova, Ivelina & Wongkantarakorn, Jutamas, 2022. "Extreme risk spillovers from commodity indexes to sovereign CDS spreads of commodity dependent countries: A VAR quantile analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Country Risk; Oil Prices; Oil Reserves; Sovereign Debt.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • L72 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Other Nonrenewable Resources

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