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World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation


  • Andrés Fernández
  • Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
  • Martín Uribe


Most existing studies of the macroeconomic effects of global shocks assume that they are mediated by a single intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices and the world interest rate transmit world disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960-2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33 percent of aggregate fluctuations in individual economies. This figure doubles when the model is estimated on post 2000 data. The increase is attributable mainly to a change in the domestic transmission mechanism as opposed to changes in the world commodity price process as argued in the literature on the financialization of world commodity markets.

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  • Andrés Fernández & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2016. "World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 22833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22833
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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    2. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
    3. Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2019. "A model for international spillovers to emerging markets," Working Paper Research 370, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Andrés Fernández & Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Cesar E. Tamayo, 2019. "Saving Rates in Latin America: A Neoclassical Perspective," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(4), pages 791-823, December.
    3. Drechsel, Thomas & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2018. "Commodity booms and busts in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 200-218.
    4. Fernández, Andrés & González, Andrés & Rodríguez, Diego, 2018. "Sharing a ride on the commodities roller coaster: Common factors in business cycles of emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 99-121.
    5. Gondo, Rocío & Pérez, Fernando, 2018. "The Transmission of Exogenous Commodity and Oil Prices shocks to Latin America - A Panel VAR approach," Working Papers 2018-012, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    6. Sergio Urzua & Felipe Saffie & Felipe Benguria, 2017. "Demand Shocks and Labor Market Dynamics: Firm Level Responses to a Commodity Boom," 2017 Meeting Papers 1443, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Lepetyuk, Vadym & Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei, 2019. "When the U.S. catches a cold, Canada sneezes: a lower-bound tale told by deep learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 14025, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Kamber, Güneş & Wong, Benjamin, 2020. "Global factors and trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    9. Isha Agrawal & Rupa Duttagupta & Andrea F Presbitero, 2017. "International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 17/279, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Alba, Joseph D. & Liu, Jingting & Chia, Wai-Mun & Park, Donghyun, 2020. "Foreign output shock in small open economies: A welfare evaluation of monetary policy regimes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 101-116.
    11. Lubomír Civín & Luboš Smutka, 2020. "Vulnerability of European Union Economies in Agro Trade," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(12), pages 1-33, June.
    12. Fujiwara, Ippei & Kam, Timothy & Sunakawa, Takeki, 2019. "Sustainable international monetary policy cooperation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2019. "A Quantitative Theory of Hard and Soft Sovereign Defaults," 2019 Meeting Papers 412, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Suescun, Rodrigo, 2020. "A tool for fiscal policy planning in a medium-term fiscal framework: The FMM-MTFF model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 431-446.
    15. David Kohn & Fernando Leibovici & Hakon Tretvoll, 2018. "Trade in Commodities and Business Cycle Volatility," Working Papers 2018-5, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 10 Jul 2019.
    16. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea F Presbitero, 2018. "Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 18/153, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Vadym Lepetyuk & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2017. "Should Central Banks Worry About Nonlinearities of their Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models?," Staff Working Papers 17-21, Bank of Canada.
    18. Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2018. "Inflation Globally," Working Paper Series 2018-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, revised 07 Dec 2018.
    19. Alejandro Torres García & Laura Wberth Escobar, 2018. "Commodity Prices Shocks and the Balance Sheet Effect in Latin America," Documentos de Trabajo CIEF 016362, Universidad EAFIT.
    20. Ben Zeev, Nadav & Pappa, Evi & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2017. "Emerging economies business cycles: The role of commodity terms of trade news," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 368-376.
    21. Drechsel, Thomas & McLeay, Michael & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2019. "Monetary policy for commodity booms and busts," CEPR Discussion Papers 14030, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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