IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/restud/v91y2024i4p1923-1955..html

The Transmission of Commodity Price Super-Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Felipe Benguria
  • Felipe Saffie
  • Sergio Urzua

Abstract

We examine two key channels through which commodity price super-cycles affect the economy: a wealth channel, through which higher commodity prices increase domestic demand, and a cost channel, through which they induce wage increases. By exploiting regional variation in exposure to commodity price shocks and administrative firm-level data from Brazil, we empirically disentangle these transmission channels. We introduce a dynamic model with heterogeneous firms and workers to further quantify the mechanisms and evaluate welfare. A counterfactual economy in which commodity booms are purely endowment shocks experiences only 30% of the intersectoral labour reallocation between tradables and nontradables, and 40% of the within-tradable labour reallocation between domestic and exported production. Finally, the consumption-equivalent welfare gain of a commodity super-cycle is twice as large in the counterfactual economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe Benguria & Felipe Saffie & Sergio Urzua, 2024. "The Transmission of Commodity Price Super-Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(4), pages 1923-1955.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:91:y:2024:i:4:p:1923-1955.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdad078
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vásquez Cordano, Arturo L. & Zellou, Abdel M., 2020. "Super cycles in natural gas prices and their impact on Latin American energy and environmental policies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Heresi, Rodrigo, 2023. "Reallocation and productivity in resource-rich economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Varela, Liliana & Saffie, Felipe & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2020. "The Micro and Macro Dynamics of Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 14893, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Andrés Fernández & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martin Uribe, 2020. "Does the Commodity Super Cycle Matter?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 884, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Romero, Damian, 2025. "Domestic linkages and the transmission of commodity price shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    6. Oglend, Atle, 2022. "The commodities/equities beta term-structure," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    7. Bernstein, Shai & Colonnelli, Emanuele & Malacrino, Davide & McQuade, Tim, 2022. "Who creates new firms when local opportunities arise?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 107-130.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:91:y:2024:i:4:p:1923-1955.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/restud .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.