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Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade

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  • Mario Crucini
  • Prasad Bidarkota

Abstract

On combining national terms‐of‐trade data for developing countries with world prices of internationally traded primary commodities, it is found that variation in the world prices of three or fewer key exported commodities account for 50% or more of the annual variation in the terms of trade of a typical developing country. A considerable fraction of the variation is specific to a particular commodity and, given that the overall importance of primary commodities differs across developing countries, it is possible to account for much of the heterogeneity across them. It is concluded that commodity price fluctuations should be central features of two related literatures: studies of business cycle transmission across developing and industrialized nations, and empirical work aimed at constructing perpetual claims on developing country incomes as suggested by Shiller in 1995.
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  • Mario Crucini & Prasad Bidarkota, 1997. "Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade," Working Papers 98-01, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:osu:osuewp:98-01
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    Cited by:

    1. Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
    2. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2006. "What Can Account for Fluctuations in the Terms of Trade?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 63-86, May.
    3. Martin Berka & Mario J. Crucini & Chih‐Wei Wang, 2012. "International risk sharing and commodity prices," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 417-447, May.
    4. Paul Cashin & Catherine Pattillo, 2006. "African terms of trade and the commodity terms of trade: close cousins or distant relatives?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 845-859.
    5. Thomas H.W. Ziesemer, 2014. "Country terms of trade: trends, unit roots, over-differencing, endogeneity, time dummies, and heterogeneity," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 767-796, September.
    6. Mirko Draca & Theodore Koutmeridis & Stephen Machin, 2019. "The Changing Returns to Crime: Do Criminals Respond to Prices?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 86(3), pages 1228-1257.
    7. Hélène Ehrhart & Samuel Guérineau, 2012. "Commodity price volatility and Tax revenues: Evidence from developing countries," Working Papers halshs-00658210, HAL.
    8. Federico Di Pace & Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2020. "Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike," IMF Working Papers 2020/280, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000. "Oil prices and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
    10. M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 2013. "Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Raymond Riezman (ed.), International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 19, pages 369-394, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Christopher Blattman & Jason Hwang & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2004. "The Impact of the Terms of Trade on Economic Development in the Periphery, 1870-1939: Volatility and Secular Change," NBER Working Papers 10600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Kenneth Rogoff & Yu-chin Chen, 2002. "Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles," IMF Working Papers 2002/027, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Peter H. Bent, 2018. "Recovery from Financial Crises in Peripheral Economies, 1870-1913," CEH Discussion Papers 07, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    14. Giovanni Federico & Michelangelo Vasta, 2009. "Was industrialization an escape from the commodity lottery? Evidence from Italy, 1861-1940," Department of Economics University of Siena 573, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    15. Mei-Hsiu Chen & Ken W. Clements & Grace Gao, 2017. "Three Facts About World Metal Prices," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 17-05, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    16. Lee, Yi-Lung & Ranjbar, Omid & Jahangard, Fateme & Chang, Tsangyao, 2020. "Analyzing slowdown and meltdowns in the African countries: New evidence using Fourier quantile unit root test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 187-198.
    17. Michael Webb, 2005. "The conflicting impacts of export fluctuations and diversification programmes," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 271-280.
    18. Mei-Hsiu Chen, 2009. "UNDERSTANDING WORLD COMMODITY PRICES Returns, Volatility and Diversification," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 09-03, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    19. Mei-Hsiu Chen & Kenneth W Clements & Grace Gao, 2013. "Three Facts About World Metal Prices," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 13-01, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    20. Kulish, Mariano & Rees, Daniel M., 2017. "Unprecedented changes in the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 351-367.
    21. Talan İşcan, 2012. "Changes in the Terms of Trade and Sectoral Reallocation of Labor: The Case of Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 473-500, July.

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