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Do Unit Value Export, Import, and Terms-of-Trade Indices Misrepresent Price Indices?

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  • Mick Silver

Abstract

Unit value export and import indices compiled from returns to customs authorities are often used as surrogates for price indices in the analysis of inflation transmission, terms of trade (effects), and to deflate import and export value series to derive volume series. Their widespread use is mainly due to their low cost relative to establishment price surveys. This paper provides evidence of substantial errors and bias in their representation of such price changes. Their continued use would mislead economic analysis. The paper considers the efficacy of alternative strategies for their improvement, and argues for a move to establishment-based price surveys. IMF Staff Papers (2009) 56, 297–322. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.24; published online 23 September 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Mick Silver, 2009. "Do Unit Value Export, Import, and Terms-of-Trade Indices Misrepresent Price Indices?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 297-322, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:56:y:2009:i:2:p:297-322
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Benedictow & Pål Boug, 2014. "Calculating the real return of the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global by alternative measures of the deflator," Discussion Papers 775, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    2. Fast Don & Fleck Susan E. & Smith Dominic A., 2022. "Unit Value Indexes for Exports – New Developments Using Administrative Trade Data," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 38(1), pages 83-106, March.
    3. Luciana Juvenal, 2020. "Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike," IMF Working Papers 2020/280, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Dai, Mi & Nucci, Francesco & Pozzolo, Alberto F. & Xu, Jianwei, 2021. "Access to finance and the exchange rate elasticity of exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Mick Silver, 2010. "The Wrongs And Rights Of Unit Value Indices," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 56(s1), pages 206-223, June.
    6. Claire Giordano & Enrico Tosti, 2024. "Weathering the storm: a characterization of the recent terms-of-trade shock in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 831, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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