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Evidence of Fueling of the 2000 New Economy Bubble by Foreign Capital Inflow: Implications for the Future of the US Economy and its Stock Market

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  • D. Sornette

    (CNRS-Univ. Nice and UCLA)

  • W. -X. Zhou

    (UCLA)

Abstract

Previous analyses of a large ensemble of stock markets have demonstrated that a log-periodic power law (LPPL) behavior of the prices constitutes a qualifying signature of speculative bubbles that often land with a crash. We detect such a LPPL signature in the foreign capital inflow during the bubble on the US markets culminating in March 2000. We detect a weak synchronization and lag with the NASDAQ 100 LPPL pattern. We propose to rationalize these observations by the existence of positive feedback loops between market-appreciation / increased-spending / increased-deficit-of-balance-of-payment / larger-foreign-surplus / increased-foreign-capital-inflows and so on. Our analysis suggests that foreign capital inflow have been following rather than causing the bubble. We then combine a macroeconomic analysis of feedback processes occurring between the economy and the stock market with a technical analysis of more than two hundred years of the DJIA to investigate possible scenarios for the future, three years after the end of the bubble and deep into a bearish regime. We also detect a LPPL accelerating bubble on the EURO against the US dollar and the Japanese Yen. In sum, our analyses is in line with our previous work on the LPPL ``anti-bubble'' representing the bearish market that started in 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • D. Sornette & W. -X. Zhou, 2003. "Evidence of Fueling of the 2000 New Economy Bubble by Foreign Capital Inflow: Implications for the Future of the US Economy and its Stock Market," Papers cond-mat/0306496, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0306496
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:eee:ememar:v:39:y:2019:i:c:p:120-132 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2006. "Fundamental factors versus herding in the 2000–2005 US stock market and prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 360(2), pages 459-482.
    3. Harras, Georges & Sornette, Didier, 2011. "How to grow a bubble: A model of myopic adapting agents," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 137-152.
    4. Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Bastiaensen, Ken & Cauwels, Peter, 2010. "Bubble diagnosis and prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 149-162, June.
    5. repec:eee:eneeco:v:72:y:2018:i:c:p:341-355 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Hao Meng & Wen-Jie Xie & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2015. "Club Convergence of House Prices: Evidence from China's Ten Key Cities," Papers 1503.05550, arXiv.org.
    7. Chuliá, Helena & Guillén, Montserrat & Uribe, Jorge M., 2017. "Measuring uncertainty in the stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 18-33.
    8. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2009. "A case study of speculative financial bubbles in the South African stock market 2003–2006," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(6), pages 869-880.
    9. D. Sornette & R. Woodard, "undated". "Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis," Working Papers CCSS-09-003, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    10. Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Yan, Wanfeng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2013. "Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4417-4428.
    11. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Yao, Ting, 2016. "Interpreting the movement of oil prices: Driven by fundamentals or bubbles?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 226-240.
    12. Didier Sornette & Ryan Woodard, 2009. "Financial Bubbles, Real Estate bubbles, Derivative Bubbles, and the Financial and Economic Crisis," Papers 0905.0220, arXiv.org.

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