Evidence of Fueling of the 2000 New Economy Bubble by Foreign Capital Inflow: Implications for the Future of the US Economy and its Stock Market
Previous analyses of a large ensemble of stock markets have demonstrated that a log-periodic power law (LPPL) behavior of the prices constitutes a qualifying signature of speculative bubbles that often land with a crash. We detect such a LPPL signature in the foreign capital inflow during the bubble on the US markets culminating in March 2000. We detect a weak synchronization and lag with the NASDAQ 100 LPPL pattern. We propose to rationalize these observations by the existence of positive feedback loops between market-appreciation / increased-spending / increased-deficit-of-balance-of-payment / larger-foreign-surplus / increased-foreign-capital-inflows and so on. Our analysis suggests that foreign capital inflow have been following rather than causing the bubble. We then combine a macroeconomic analysis of feedback processes occurring between the economy and the stock market with a technical analysis of more than two hundred years of the DJIA to investigate possible scenarios for the future, three years after the end of the bubble and deep into a bearish regime. We also detect a LPPL accelerating bubble on the EURO against the US dollar and the Japanese Yen. In sum, our analyses is in line with our previous work on the LPPL ``anti-bubble'' representing the bearish market that started in 2000.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980.
"On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
- Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
- Albuquerque, Rui & Loayza, Norman & Serven, Luis, 2003.
"World market integration through the lens of foreign direct investors,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3060, The World Bank.
- Albuquerque, Rui & Loayza, Norman & Serven, Luis, 2005. "World market integration through the lens of foreign direct investors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 267-295, July.
- Martin Neil Baily, 2001. "Macroeconomic implications of the new economy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 201-268.
- Kilian, Lutz & Manganelli, Simone, 2003.
"The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Quantifying and Forecasting Inflation Risks,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3918, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz & Manganelli, Simone, 2003. "The central bank as a risk manager: quantifying and forecasting inflation risks," Working Paper Series 0226, European Central Bank.
- Martin Neil Baily, 2001. "Macroeconomic Implications of the New Economy," Working Paper Series WP01-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 452-471.
- Evans, George W, 1986. "A Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Sterling-Dollar Exchange Rate: 1981-84," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 621-36, September.
- Johansen, Anders & Sornette, Didier, 2001. "Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 465-502.
- Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette, 2000. "The Nasdaq crash of April 2000: Yet another example of log-periodicity in a speculative bubble ending in a crash," Papers cond-mat/0004263, arXiv.org, revised May 2000.
- Marie Christine Adam & Ariane Szafarz, 1993.
"Speculative Bubbles and Financial Markets,"
ULB Institutional Repository
2013/665, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Michael P Dooley & Carl E Walsh, 1999. "Academic Views of Capital Flows: An Expanding Universe," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: David Gruen & Luke Gower (ed.), Capital Flows and the International Financial System Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Woo, Wing Thye, 1987. "Some Evidence of Speculative Bubbles in the Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(4), pages 499-514, November.
- Cedric Tille, 2003. "The impact of exchange rate movements on U.S. foreign debt," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Jan).
- D. Sornette & W. -X. Zhou, 2002. "The US 2000-2002 Market Descent: How Much Longer and Deeper?," Papers cond-mat/0209065, arXiv.org.
- Vandewalle, N. & Boveroux, Ph. & Minguet, A. & Ausloos, M., 1998. "The crash of October 1987 seen as a phase transition: amplitude and universality," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 255(1), pages 201-210.
- Camerer, Colin, 1989. " Bubbles and Fads in Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 3-41.
- Wynne Godley, 2003. "The US Economy: A Changing Strategic Predicament," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive 03-3, Levy Economics Institute.
- Slanina, František & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 1999. "Capital flow in a two-component dynamical system," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 257-268.
- D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Papers cond-mat/0106520, arXiv.org.
- W. -X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2003. "2000-2003 Real Estate Bubble in the UK but not in the USA," Papers physics/0303028, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2003.
- Frantisek Slanina & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 1999. "Capital flow in a two-component dynamical system," Papers cond-mat/9906249, arXiv.org, revised Jun 1999.
- Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2002. "Non-Parametric Analyses of Log-Periodic Precursors to Financial Crashes," Papers cond-mat/0205531, arXiv.org.
- Eric Ghysels & Junghoon Seon, 2000. "The Asian Financial Crisis: The Role of Derivative Securities Trading and Foreign Investors," CIRANO Working Papers 2000s-11, CIRANO.
- Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-30, September.
- Hamilton, James D. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1985. "The observable implications of self-fulfilling expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 353-373, November.
- Didier Sornette & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2002. "The US 2000-2002 market descent: How much longer and deeper?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(6), pages 468-481.
- Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0306496. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.