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Exogenous and endogenous market crashes as phase transitions in complex financial systems

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  • J.M. Fry

Abstract

In this paper we provide a unifying framework for a set of seemingly disparate models for exogenous and endogenous shocks in complex financial systems. Markets operate by balancing intrinsic levels of risk and return. This remains true even in the midst of transitory exogenous and endogenous shocks. Changes in market regime (bearish to bullish and bullish to bearish) can be explicitly shown to represent a phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices. The resulting models refine the empirical analysis in a number of previous papers. Copyright EDP Sciences, SIF, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

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  • J.M. Fry, 2012. "Exogenous and endogenous market crashes as phase transitions in complex financial systems," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 85(12), pages 1-6, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurphb:v:85:y:2012:i:12:p:1-6:10.1140/epjb/e2012-30234-8
    DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2012-30234-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    2. Nicolas Carnot & Vincent Koen & Bruno Tissot, 2011. "Economic Forecasting and Policy," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-0-230-30644-8, November.
    3. repec:rnp:ecopol:09111 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bouchaud,Jean-Philippe & Potters,Marc, 2003. "Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521819169, January.
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    1. John Fry, 2014. "Bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 87(1), pages 1-13, January.
    2. Kozłowska, M. & Denys, M. & Wiliński, M. & Link, G. & Gubiec, T. & Werner, T.R. & Kutner, R. & Struzik, Z.R., 2016. "Dynamic bifurcations on financial markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 126-142.
    3. Dean Fantazzini & Erik Nigmatullin & Vera Sukhanovskaya & Sergey Ivliev, 2017. "Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask. Part 2," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 45, pages 5-28.
    4. Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Yan, Wanfeng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2013. "Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4417-4428.
    5. Mark Mizraki, 2015. "Conversation with Mark Mizruchi:“There is Very Little Organizational Theory Left in Sociology Departments”," Journal of Economic Sociology, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 16(3), pages 14-25.
    6. Shu, Min & Zhu, Wei, 2020. "Detection of Chinese stock market bubbles with LPPLS confidence indicator," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 557(C).
    7. Cheah, Eng-Tuck & Fry, John, 2015. "Speculative bubbles in Bitcoin markets? An empirical investigation into the fundamental value of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 32-36.
    8. John Fry & McMillan David, 2015. "Stochastic modelling for financial bubbles and policy," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1002152-100, December.
    9. Fry, John & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2016. "Negative bubbles and shocks in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 343-352.
    10. John Fry & Andrew Brint, 2017. "Bubbles, Blind-Spots and Brexit," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-15, July.

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