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Exogenous and endogenous crashes as phase transitions in complex financial systems

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  • Fry, John

Abstract

In this paper we provide a unifying framework for a set of seemingly disparate models for exogenous and endogenous shocks in complex financial systems. Markets operate by balancing intrinsic levels of risk and return. This remains true even in the midst of transitory external shocks. Changes in market regime (bearish to bullish and bullish to bearish) can be explicitly shown to represent a phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices. The resulting models refine the empirical analysis in a number of previous papers.

Suggested Citation

  • Fry, John, 2012. "Exogenous and endogenous crashes as phase transitions in complex financial systems," MPRA Paper 36202, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36202
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Cheah, Eng-Tuck & Fry, John, 2015. "Speculative bubbles in Bitcoin markets? An empirical investigation into the fundamental value of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 32-36.
    2. Kozłowska, M. & Denys, M. & Wiliński, M. & Link, G. & Gubiec, T. & Werner, T.R. & Kutner, R. & Struzik, Z.R., 2016. "Dynamic bifurcations on financial markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 126-142.
    3. Shu, Min & Zhu, Wei, 2020. "Detection of Chinese stock market bubbles with LPPLS confidence indicator," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 557(C).
    4. Mark Mizraki, 2015. "Conversation with Mark Mizruchi:“There is Very Little Organizational Theory Left in Sociology Departments”," Journal of Economic Sociology, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 16(3), pages 14-25.
    5. Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Yan, Wanfeng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2013. "Clarifications to questions and criticisms on the Johansen–Ledoit–Sornette financial bubble model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4417-4428.
    6. John Fry & McMillan David, 2015. "Stochastic modelling for financial bubbles and policy," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1002152-100, December.
    7. Fry, John & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2016. "Negative bubbles and shocks in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 343-352.
    8. Fantazzini, Dean & Nigmatullin, Erik & Sukhanovskaya, Vera & Ivliev, Sergey, 2017. "Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask. Part 2," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 45, pages 5-28.
    9. Fry, John & Binner, Jane M., 2016. "Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using social media," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 1014-1023.
    10. John Fry & Andrew Brint, 2017. "Bubbles, Blind-Spots and Brexit," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-15, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exogenous; Endogenous; Financial Crashes; Bubbles; Econophysics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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