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Comparing Tests for Identification of Bubbles

Author

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  • Kristoffer Pons Bertelsen

    (Aarhus University and CREATES)

Abstract

This paper compares the log periodic power law (LPPL) and the supremum augmented Dickey Fuller (supremum ADF) procedures considering bubble detection and time stamping capabilities in a thorough analysis based on simulated data. A generalized formulation of the LPPL procedure is derived and analysed demonstrating performance improvements.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristoffer Pons Bertelsen, 2019. "Comparing Tests for Identification of Bubbles," CREATES Research Papers 2019-16, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2019-16
    as

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    File URL: ftp://ftp.econ.au.dk/creates/rp/19/rp19_16.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rational bubbles; explosive processes; log periodic power law; critical points theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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