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Specification Sensitivity in Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing for Explosive Behaviour

Listed author(s):
  • Peter C. B. Phillips
  • Shuping Shi
  • Jun Yu

type="main" xml:id="obes12026-abs-0001"> This article aims to provide some empirical guidelines for the practical implementation of right-tailed unit root tests, focusing on the recursive right-tailed ADF test of Phillips et al. (2011b). We analyze and compare the limit theory of the recursive test under different hypotheses and model specifications. The size and power properties of the test under various scenarios are examined and some recommendations for empirical practice are given. Some new results on the consistent estimation of localizing drift exponents are obtained, which are useful in assessing model specification. Empirical applications to stock markets illustrate these specification issues and reveal their practical importance in testing.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/obes.2014.76.issue-3
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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 76 (2014)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 315-333

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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:76:y:2014:i:3:p:315-333
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  1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2011. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles," Working Papers 09-2011, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  2. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Magdalinos, Tassos, 2007. "Limit theory for moderate deviations from a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 115-130, January.
  3. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-530, June.
  4. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
  5. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
  6. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-930, September.
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