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Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using social media

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  • Fry, John
  • Binner, Jane M.

Abstract

Social media usage in evacuations and emergency management represents a rapidly expanding field of study. Our paper thus provides quantitative insight into a serious practical problem. Within this context a behavioural approach is key. We discuss when facilitators should consider model-based interventions amid further implications for disaster communication and emergency management. We model the behaviour of individual people by deriving optimal contrarian strategies. We formulate a Bayesian algorithm which enables the optimal evacuation to be conducted sequentially under worsening conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Fry, John & Binner, Jane M., 2016. "Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using social media," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 1014-1023.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:249:y:2016:i:3:p:1014-1023
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.05.049
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:eee:ejores:v:269:y:2018:i:2:p:451-465 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:ejores:v:269:y:2018:i:2:p:749-759 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spr:nathaz:v:87:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2785-7 is not listed on IDEAS

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