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Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using social media

Listed author(s):
  • Fry, John
  • Binner, Jane M.
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Social media usage in evacuations and emergency management represents a rapidly expanding field of study. Our paper thus provides quantitative insight into a serious practical problem. Within this context a behavioural approach is key. We discuss when facilitators should consider model-based interventions amid further implications for disaster communication and emergency management. We model the behaviour of individual people by deriving optimal contrarian strategies. We formulate a Bayesian algorithm which enables the optimal evacuation to be conducted sequentially under worsening conditions.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.

Volume (Year): 249 (2016)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 1014-1023

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:249:y:2016:i:3:p:1014-1023
DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2015.05.049
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  1. Bish, Douglas R. & Sherali, Hanif D., 2013. "Aggregate-level demand management in evacuation planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 79-92.
  2. Abdelghany, Ahmed & Abdelghany, Khaled & Mahmassani, Hani & Alhalabi, Wael, 2014. "Modeling framework for optimal evacuation of large-scale crowded pedestrian facilities," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 1105-1118.
  3. Fan, Zhi-Ping & Sun, Minghe, 2015. "Behavior-aware user response modeling in social media: Learning from diverse heterogeneous dataAuthor-Name: Chen, Zhen-Yu," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 241(2), pages 422-434.
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  8. Brocklesby, John, 2009. "Ethics beyond the model: How social dynamics can interfere with ethical practice in operational research/management science," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1073-1082, December.
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  11. Lim, Gino J. & Zangeneh, Shabnam & Reza Baharnemati, M. & Assavapokee, Tiravat, 2012. "A capacitated network flow optimization approach for short notice evacuation planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 234-245.
  12. Burstedde, C & Klauck, K & Schadschneider, A & Zittartz, J, 2001. "Simulation of pedestrian dynamics using a two-dimensional cellular automaton," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 295(3), pages 507-525.
  13. Yi, Wei & Kumar, Arun, 2007. "Ant colony optimization for disaster relief operations," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 660-672, November.
  14. Bretschneider, S. & Kimms, A., 2012. "Pattern-based evacuation planning for urban areas," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 57-69.
  15. M. Smyrnakis & T. Galla, 2012. "Effects of communication and utility-based decision making in a simple model of evacuation," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 85(11), pages 1-9, November.
  16. Chan, K C, 1988. "On the Contrarian Investment Strategy," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(2), pages 147-163, April.
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