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Aggregate-level demand management in evacuation planning


  • Bish, Douglas R.
  • Sherali, Hanif D.


Without successful large-scale regional evacuations, threats such as hurricanes and wild-fires can cause a large loss of life. In this context, automobiles are oftentimes an essential transportation mode for evacuations, but the ensuing traffic typically overwhelms the roadway capacity and causes congestion on a massive scale. Congestion leads to many problems including longer, costlier, and more stressful evacuations, lower compliance rates, and increased risk to the population. Supply-based strategies have traditionally been used in evacuation planning, but they have been proven to be insufficient to reduce congestion to acceptable levels. In this paper, we study the demand-based strategies of aggregate-level staging and routing to structure the evacuation demand, both with and without congestion. We provide a novel modeling framework that offers strategic flexibility and utilizes a lexicographic objective function that represents a hierarchy of relevant evacuation-based goals. We also provide insights into the nature and effect of network bottlenecks. We compare our model with and without congestion in relation to tractability, normative optimality, and robustness under demand uncertainty. We also show the effectiveness of using demand-based strategies as opposed to using the status quo that involves a non-staged or simultaneous evacuation process. Effective solution procedures are developed and tested using hypothetical problem instances as well as using a larger study based on a portion of coastal Virginia, USA.

Suggested Citation

  • Bish, Douglas R. & Sherali, Hanif D., 2013. "Aggregate-level demand management in evacuation planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 79-92.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:224:y:2013:i:1:p:79-92
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2012.07.036

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Cassidy, Michael J. & Bertini, Robert L., 1999. "Some traffic features at freeway bottlenecks," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 25-42, February.
    2. Tao Yao & Supreet Mandala & Byung Chung, 2009. "Evacuation Transportation Planning Under Uncertainty: A Robust Optimization Approach," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 171-189, June.
    3. Daganzo, Carlos F., 1995. "The cell transmission model, part II: Network traffic," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 79-93, April.
    4. Eva Regnier, 2008. "Public Evacuation Decisions and Hurricane Track Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(1), pages 16-28, January.
    5. John J. Jarvis & H. Donald Ratliff, 1982. "Note---Some Equivalent Objectives for Dynamic Network Flow Problems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(1), pages 106-109, January.
    6. Urbina, Elba & Wolshon, Brian, 2003. "National review of hurricane evacuation plans and policies: a comparison and contrast of state practices," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 257-275, March.
    7. Daganzo, Carlos F., 1994. "The cell transmission model: A dynamic representation of highway traffic consistent with the hydrodynamic theory," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 269-287, August.
    8. Chung, Koohong & Rudjanakanoknad, Jittichai & Cassidy, Michael J., 2007. "Relation between traffic density and capacity drop at three freeway bottlenecks," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 82-95, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yi, Wenqi & Nozick, Linda & Davidson, Rachel & Blanton, Brian & Colle, Brian, 2017. "Optimization of the issuance of evacuation orders under evolving hurricane conditions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 285-304.
    2. repec:eee:transb:v:107:y:2018:i:c:p:124-145 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:reensy:v:139:y:2015:i:c:p:188-199 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:spr:nathaz:v:87:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2823-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Pillac, Victor & Van Hentenryck, Pascal & Even, Caroline, 2016. "A conflict-based path-generation heuristic for evacuation planning," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 136-150.
    6. Melissa Gama & Bruno Filipe Santos & Maria Paola Scaparra, 2016. "A multi-period shelter location-allocation model with evacuation orders for flood disasters," EURO Journal on Computational Optimization, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 4(3), pages 299-323, September.
    7. repec:eee:ejores:v:264:y:2018:i:3:p:978-993 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Fry, John & Binner, Jane M., 2016. "Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using social media," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 1014-1023.
    9. Hussein Tarhini & Douglas R. Bish, 2016. "Routing Strategies Under Demand Uncertainty," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 665-685, June.
    10. Shahparvari, Shahrooz & Chhetri, Prem & Abbasi, Babak & Abareshi, Ahmad, 2016. "Enhancing emergency evacuation response of late evacuees: Revisiting the case of Australian Black Saturday bushfire," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 148-176.
    11. repec:eee:ejores:v:269:y:2018:i:3:p:1122-1136 is not listed on IDEAS


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