IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Aggregate-level demand management in evacuation planning

Listed author(s):
  • Bish, Douglas R.
  • Sherali, Hanif D.
Registered author(s):

    Without successful large-scale regional evacuations, threats such as hurricanes and wild-fires can cause a large loss of life. In this context, automobiles are oftentimes an essential transportation mode for evacuations, but the ensuing traffic typically overwhelms the roadway capacity and causes congestion on a massive scale. Congestion leads to many problems including longer, costlier, and more stressful evacuations, lower compliance rates, and increased risk to the population. Supply-based strategies have traditionally been used in evacuation planning, but they have been proven to be insufficient to reduce congestion to acceptable levels. In this paper, we study the demand-based strategies of aggregate-level staging and routing to structure the evacuation demand, both with and without congestion. We provide a novel modeling framework that offers strategic flexibility and utilizes a lexicographic objective function that represents a hierarchy of relevant evacuation-based goals. We also provide insights into the nature and effect of network bottlenecks. We compare our model with and without congestion in relation to tractability, normative optimality, and robustness under demand uncertainty. We also show the effectiveness of using demand-based strategies as opposed to using the status quo that involves a non-staged or simultaneous evacuation process. Effective solution procedures are developed and tested using hypothetical problem instances as well as using a larger study based on a portion of coastal Virginia, USA.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.

    Volume (Year): 224 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 79-92

    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:224:y:2013:i:1:p:79-92
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2012.07.036
    Contact details of provider: Web page:

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    in new window

    1. Cassidy, Michael J. & Bertini, Robert L., 1999. "Some traffic features at freeway bottlenecks," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 25-42, February.
    2. Tao Yao & Supreet Mandala & Byung Chung, 2009. "Evacuation Transportation Planning Under Uncertainty: A Robust Optimization Approach," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 171-189, June.
    3. Daganzo, Carlos F., 1995. "The cell transmission model, part II: Network traffic," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 79-93, April.
    4. Eva Regnier, 2008. "Public Evacuation Decisions and Hurricane Track Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(1), pages 16-28, January.
    5. John J. Jarvis & H. Donald Ratliff, 1982. "Note---Some Equivalent Objectives for Dynamic Network Flow Problems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(1), pages 106-109, January.
    6. Urbina, Elba & Wolshon, Brian, 2003. "National review of hurricane evacuation plans and policies: a comparison and contrast of state practices," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 257-275, March.
    7. Daganzo, Carlos F., 1994. "The cell transmission model: A dynamic representation of highway traffic consistent with the hydrodynamic theory," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 269-287, August.
    8. Chung, Koohong & Rudjanakanoknad, Jittichai & Cassidy, Michael J., 2007. "Relation between traffic density and capacity drop at three freeway bottlenecks," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 82-95, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:224:y:2013:i:1:p:79-92. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.