A multi-stage stochastic program for evacuation management under tornado track uncertainty

This paper introduces a multi-stage optimization model that identifies an optimal evacuation plan in response to spatial-temporal weather-events with track uncertainty. We establish how a multi-stage model can effectively take into account track uncertainty to generate a better evacuation plan. In particular, we study evacuation management for hazardous convective weather events (e.g., tornadoes) that cause hundreds of fatalities in the US every year. The common practice against a tornado threat is shelter-in-place. In our computational results, we quantify the benefits and costs of evacuation as a response policy in comparison to the status quo policy, i.e., shelter-in-place.