IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v325y2025i1p132-146.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A nonparametric online control chart for monitoring crowd density using relative density-ratio estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Zhou, Wenhui
  • Xie, Yibin
  • Zheng, Zhibin

Abstract

With the increasing incidence of fatal crowd stampede disasters at public events due to rapid urbanization and escalating population density, there is an urgent need for real-time monitoring of crowd flow to prevent such tragic incidents. This paper proposes a novel nonparametric online control chart for crowd density monitoring, called the RDR-CUSUM chart. This chart utilizes a new statistic based on the principles of cumulative sum (CUSUM) and relative density ratio (RDR). We present an RDR estimation method for deriving this statistic, which is enhanced by an S-M Invertor algorithm to ensure the efficiency required for real-time application. Numerical analyses demonstrate that the proposed chart can quickly respond to the distribution’s mean, variance, pattern, and different distribution parameter shifts. Moreover, the effectiveness of the method has been validated through two application examples, which illustrate its proficiency in detecting changes in crowd density and providing early warnings of potential crowd stampede disasters.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Wenhui & Xie, Yibin & Zheng, Zhibin, 2025. "A nonparametric online control chart for monitoring crowd density using relative density-ratio estimation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 325(1), pages 132-146.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:325:y:2025:i:1:p:132-146
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2025.03.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221725001997
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2025.03.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Lida & Chen, Tao & Wang, Yan & Yuan, Hongyong, 2015. "Congestion detection of pedestrians using the velocity entropy: A case study of Love Parade 2010 disaster," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 440(C), pages 200-209.
    2. Shiwang Hou & Keming Yu, 2021. "A non-parametric CUSUM control chart for process distribution change detection and change type diagnosis," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(4), pages 1166-1186, February.
    3. Kurdi, Heba A. & Al-Megren, Shiroq & Althunyan, Reham & Almulifi, Asma, 2018. "Effect of exit placement on evacuation plans," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(2), pages 749-759.
    4. Dirk Helbing & Illés Farkas & Tamás Vicsek, 2000. "Simulating dynamical features of escape panic," Nature, Nature, vol. 407(6803), pages 487-490, September.
    5. Fry, John & Binner, Jane M., 2016. "Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using social media," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 1014-1023.
    6. Wang, Wenbin, 2012. "A simulation-based multivariate Bayesian control chart for real time condition-based maintenance of complex systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 218(3), pages 726-734.
    7. Armin Seyfried & Oliver Passon & Bernhard Steffen & Maik Boltes & Tobias Rupprecht & Wolfram Klingsch, 2009. "New Insights into Pedestrian Flow Through Bottlenecks," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(3), pages 395-406, August.
    8. Zhou, Qin & Luo, Yunzhao & Wang, Zhaojun, 2010. "A control chart based on likelihood ratio test for detecting patterned mean and variance shifts," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1634-1645, June.
    9. Kai Wang & Jian Li & Fugee Tsung, 2022. "Distribution inference from early-stage stationary data streams by transfer learning," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 303-320, March.
    10. Hyunwoo Park & Trustin Clear & William B. Rouse & Rahul C. Basole & Mark L. Braunstein & Kenneth L. Brigham & Lynn Cunningham, 2012. "Multilevel Simulations of Health Delivery Systems: A Prospective Tool for Policy, Strategy, Planning, and Management," Service Science, INFORMS, vol. 4(3), pages 253-268, September.
    11. Li, Weiyu & Denton, Brian T. & Morgan, Todd M., 2023. "Optimizing active surveillance for prostate cancer using partially observable Markov decision processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(1), pages 386-399.
    12. Knut Haase & Mathias Kasper & Matthes Koch & Sven Müller, 2019. "A Pilgrim Scheduling Approach to Increase Safety During the Hajj," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 376-406, March.
    13. Zhang Wu & Jianxin Jiao & Mei Yang & Ying Liu & Zhaojun Wang, 2009. "An enhanced adaptive CUSUM control chart," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(7), pages 642-653.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Changkun & Sun, Huakai & Lei, Peng & Zhao, Dongyue & Shi, Congling, 2021. "An extended model for crowd evacuation considering pedestrian panic in artificial attack," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 571(C).
    2. Krbálek, Milan & Hrabák, Pavel & Bukáček, Marek, 2018. "Pedestrian headways — Reflection of territorial social forces," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 38-49.
    3. Kurdi, Heba & Almulifi, Asma & Al-Megren, Shiroq & Youcef-Toumi, Kamal, 2021. "A balanced evacuation algorithm for facilities with multiple exits," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(1), pages 285-296.
    4. Lian, Liping & Song, Weiguo & Yuen, Kwok Kit Richard & Telesca, Luciano, 2018. "Investigating the time evolution of some parameters describing inflow processes of pedestrians in a room," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 507(C), pages 77-88.
    5. Zhang, Jun & Cui, Haoran & Chraibi, Mohcine & Yu, Hang & Song, Weiguo, 2023. "Velocity-based model for pedestrian dynamics considering direction preferences," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 613(C).
    6. Milad Haghani & Majid Sarvi & Zahra Shahhoseini & Maik Boltes, 2016. "How Simple Hypothetical-Choice Experiments Can Be Utilized to Learn Humans’ Navigational Escape Decisions in Emergencies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-24, November.
    7. Wu, Xin & Zhang, Longmei & Zhang, Tingting & Jiang, Qinling, 2025. "Analysis of crowd vertical evacuation mechanism under different density conditions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 657(C).
    8. Haghani, Milad & Sarvi, Majid & Shahhoseini, Zahra, 2019. "When ‘push’ does not come to ‘shove’: Revisiting ‘faster is slower’ in collective egress of human crowds," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 51-69.
    9. Ziyou Gao & Yunchao Qu & Xingang Li & Jiancheng Long & Hai-Jun Huang, 2014. "Simulating the Dynamic Escape Process in Large Public Places," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(6), pages 1344-1357, December.
    10. Mohd Ibrahim, Azhar & Venkat, Ibrahim & Wilde, Philippe De, 2017. "Uncertainty in a spatial evacuation model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 485-497.
    11. Wang, Jia & Ni, Shunjiang & Shen, Shifei & Li, Shuying, 2019. "Empirical study of crowd dynamic in public gathering places during a terrorist attack event," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 1-9.
    12. Yamamoto, Hiroki & Yanagisawa, Daichi & Feliciani, Claudio & Nishinari, Katsuhiro, 2019. "Body-rotation behavior of pedestrians for collision avoidance in passing and cross flow," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 486-510.
    13. Li, Zitong & Lo, S.M. & Ma, Jian & Luo, X.W., 2020. "A study on passengers’ alighting and boarding process at metro platform by computer simulation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 840-854.
    14. Gao, Jin & He, Jun & Gong, Jinghai, 2020. "A simplified method to provide evacuation guidance in a multi-exit building under emergency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    15. Zeng, Guang & Ye, Rui & Zhang, Jun & Cao, Shuchao & Song, Weiguo, 2023. "Macroscopic and microscopic movement properties of the fast walking pedestrian flow with single-file experiments," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 630(C).
    16. Zhang, Yijing & Lu, Linjun & Liu, Qiujia & Hu, Miaoqing, 2023. "Modeling of low-risk behavior of pedestrian movement based on dynamic data analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    17. Zhao, Yongxiang & Li, Meifang & Lu, Xin & Tian, Lijun & Yu, Zhiyong & Huang, Kai & Wang, Yana & Li, Ting, 2017. "Optimal layout design of obstacles for panic evacuation using differential evolution," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 175-194.
    18. Li, Xiao-Yang & Lin, Zhi-Yang & Zhang, Peng & Zhang, Xiao-Ning, 2023. "Reconstruction of density and cost potential field of Eikonal equation: Applications to discrete pedestrian flow models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 629(C).
    19. Zheng, Ying & Jia, Bin & Li, Xin-Gang & Zhu, Nuo, 2011. "Evacuation dynamics with fire spreading based on cellular automaton," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(18), pages 3147-3156.
    20. Rui Jiang & Mao-Bin Hu & Qing-Song Wu & Wei-Guo Song, 2017. "Traffic Dynamics of Bicycle Flow: Experiment and Modeling," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(3), pages 998-1008, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:325:y:2025:i:1:p:132-146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.