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Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?

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  • Wei-Xing Zhou

    (ECUST)

  • Didier Sornette

    (CNRS-Univ. Nice and UCLA)

Abstract

We analyze the quarterly average sale prices of new houses sold in the USA as a whole, in the northeast, midwest, south, and west of the USA, in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia of the USA, to determine whether they have grown faster-than-exponential which we take as the diagnostic of a bubble. We find that 22 states (mostly Northeast and West) exhibit clear-cut signatures of a fast growing bubble. From the analysis of the S&P 500 Home Index, we conclude that the turning point of the bubble will probably occur around mid-2006.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2005. "Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?," Papers physics/0506027, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:physics/0506027
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