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Is there a real-estate bubble in the US?

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  • Zhou, Wei-Xing
  • Sornette, Didier

Abstract

Using a methodology developed in previous papers, we analyze the quarterly average sale prices of new houses sold in the USA as a whole, in the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West of the USA, in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia of the USA, to determine whether they have grown at a faster-than-exponential rate which we take as the diagnostic of a bubble. We find that 22 states (mostly Northeast and West) exhibit clear-cut signatures of a fast-growing bubble. From the analysis of the S&P 500 Home Index, we conclude that the turning point of the bubble will probably occur around mid-2006.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2006. "Is there a real-estate bubble in the US?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 361(1), pages 297-308.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:361:y:2006:i:1:p:297-308
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2005.06.098
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Didier Sornette & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2002. "The US 2000-2002 market descent: How much longer and deeper?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(6), pages 468-481.
    2. D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 452-471.
    3. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2003. "2000–2003 real estate bubble in the UK but not in the USA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 329(1), pages 249-263.
    4. Hans-Christian Graf v. Bothmer, 2003. "Significance of log-periodic signatures in cumulative noise," Papers cond-mat/0302507, arXiv.org, revised May 2003.
    5. J. A. Feigenbaum, 2001. "More on a statistical analysis of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 527-532.
    6. Graf v. Bothmer, Hans-Christian & Meister, Christian, 2003. "Predicting critical crashes? A new restriction for the free variables," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 539-547.
    7. Sornette, Didier & Johansen, Anders, 1997. "Large financial crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 411-422.
    8. J.A. Feigenbaum, 2001. "A statistical analysis of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes-super-," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 346-360, March.
    9. Vandewalle, N. & Boveroux, Ph. & Minguet, A. & Ausloos, M., 1998. "The crash of October 1987 seen as a phase transition: amplitude and universality," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 255(1), pages 201-210.
    10. D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Papers cond-mat/0106520, arXiv.org.
    11. Anders Johansen & Olivier Ledoit & Didier Sornette, 2000. "Crashes As Critical Points," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 219-255.
    12. Hans-Christian Graf Bothmer, 2003. "Significance of log-periodic signatures in cumulative noise," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(5), pages 370-375.
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