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Dynamic Relationship Between Oil Price And Inflation In South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Mehmet Balcilar
  • Josine Uwilingiye
  • Rangan Gupta

    (Eastern Mediterranean University, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus
    University of Pretoria, South Africa
    University of Johannesburg, South Africa)

Abstract

The oil price-inflation relationship has been at the center of attention among economists and policy analysts, especially after 1970's oil shocks that resulted in a significant increase in the rate of inflation in number of countries around the world. However in the recent years, a number of empirical study, mostly in developed economies, has found that the effect of oil price shocks on inflation has weakened; mainly due to a reduction in oil intensity in production process and lower inflation environment. Moreover, some empirical evidences have shown the response of inflation from a negative and a positive oil shock to differ. This study aims to investigate the evolving relationship between oil price and inflation in South Africa, using time series data of inflation and oil price starting from January, 1922 to July, 2013. The study has a policy relevance on monetary policy reaction to oil shocks as South Africa is a small open economy with higher dependency on oil import and a floating exchange rate system. We fit both symmetric and asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH) to the data. The results reveal the oil price to have a positive relationship with inflation, however the correlation is low and ranges between 0.07-0.08. The time-series patterns show a tendency of temporary upward shift in the pair-wise conditional correlations during predominant oil crisis. We also observe an upward shift in correlation in the year 1986, which can be attributed to South Africa's oil embargo. Further, the asymmetric-DCC model, based on the DCC exponential GARCH (DCC-EGARCH) framework, which fits the data better than the symmetric DCC-GARCH, show that the positive shocks have higher effect on inflation than negative shocks of the same magnitude. Finally, we observe that the correlation has been decreasing gradually over time for both symmetric and asymmetric specification of DCC model. The weaker oil price-inflation relationship, observed in recent years, could be attributed to the South African Reserve Bank's commitment to stabilize inflation expectation in the presence of external shocks. The study highlights the relative importance of oil shocks on inflation, and recommends that the Reserve Bank needs to remain attentive to oil price shocks, especially the positive ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Balcilar & Josine Uwilingiye & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Dynamic Relationship Between Oil Price And Inflation In South Africa," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 52(2), pages 73-93, April-Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:jda:journl:vol.52:year:2018:issue2:pp:73-93
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Balcilar & David Roubaud & Ojonugwa Usman & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Testing the asymmetric effects of exchange rate pass‐through in BRICS countries: Does the state of the economy matter?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 188-233, January.
    2. Mehmet Balcilar & Usman Ojonugwa, 2018. "Exchange rate and oil price pass-through to inflation in BRICS countries: Evidence from the spillover index and rolling-sample analysis," Working Papers 15-45, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    3. Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2017. "The role of oil prices in the forecasts of South African interest rates: A Bayesian approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 270-278.
    4. Deng, Xiang & Xu, Fang, 2024. "Asymmetric effects of international oil prices on China's PPI in different industries——Research based on NARDL model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    5. Abdullah M. H. Alharbi, 2023. "Oil Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Stock Returns: A Case of Oil-based Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 56-63, November.
    6. Balcilar, Mehmet & Usman, Ojonugwa, 2021. "Exchange rate and oil price pass-through in the BRICS countries: Evidence from the spillover index and rolling-sample analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    7. Coşkun Akdeniz & Abdurrahman Nazif Çatık & Esra Ballı, 2022. "Inflationary effects of oil price and exchange rate shocks in South Africa: Evidence from time‐varying pass‐through coefficients," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 301-328, September.
    8. Gürkan Bozma & Murat Akadg & Rahman Aydin, 2021. "Dynamic Relationships between Oil Price, Inflation and Economic Growth: A VARMA, GARCH-in-mean, asymmetric BEKK Model for Turkey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1266-1281.
    9. Bruna, Karel & Van Tran, Quang, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on EUR/USD exchange rate and structural shock decomposition in a BVAR model with sign restriction," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    10. Mabanga, Chris & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2020. "The effects of oil prices on equity market returns in BRICS grouping: A quantile-on-quantile approach," MPRA Paper 101403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Alley, Ibrahim, 2018. "Oil price and USD-Naira exchange rate crash: Can economic diversification save the Naira?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 245-256.
    12. Gupta, Rangan & Subramaniam, Sowmya & Bouri, Elie & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Infectious disease-related uncertainty and the safe-haven characteristic of US treasury securities," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 289-298.
    13. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Commodity Prices and Forecastability of South African Stock Returns Over a Century: Sentiments versus Fundamentals," Working Papers 202144, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Balcilar, Mehmet & Roubaud, David & Usman, Ojonugwa & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Moving out of the linear rut: A period-specific and regime-dependent exchange rate and oil price pass-through in the BRICS countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    15. Tianyao Chen & Xue Cheng & Jingping Yang, 2019. "Common Decomposition of Correlated Brownian Motions and its Financial Applications," Papers 1907.03295, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    16. Mehmet Balcilar & David Roubaud & Ojonugwa Usman & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Testing the Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate and Oil Price Pass-Through in BRICS Countries: Does the state of the economy matter?," Working Papers 15-49, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    17. Guhathakurta, Kousik & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2020. "Period specific volatility spillover based connectedness between oil and other commodity prices and their portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    18. Temitope L. A. Leshoro, 2023. "An Analysis of the Importance of Terms of Trade in South Africa Using Impulse Response Function," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 24(2), pages 243-257, April.
    19. Rangan Gupta & Hylton Hollander & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "The Impact of Oil Shocks in a Small Open Economy New-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for South Africa," Working Papers 201652, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; inflation; causality; DCC-EGARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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